Prognosticators in search of a dark horse team in spring training had two options in the National League West. Some liked the Arizona Diamondbacks, with their dangerous lineup and potentially strong rotation. Others were intrigued by the Colorado Rockies, with their potent offense and remodeled bullpen.
As the past week has shown, both teams will have to overcome some challenges to remain relevant in September. But like Mel Kiper Jr. and H&R Block, the D-backs and Rockies are doing some of their best work in April.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have lulled the West into a state of mind-numbing predictability in recent years, but the division has an unsettled feel this season. As the Rockies and Diamondbacks begin a three-game series Friday night at Chase Field, they are playing with energy and raising expectations in their respective cities.
The Rockies are 14-9 under first-year manager Bud Black and looked like world-beaters until Washington came to Coors Field this week and scored 42 runs on 47 hits in the final three matchups of a four-game series. They have shown impressive resilience in overcoming the absence of starters Jon Gray and Chad Bettis, first baseman Ian Desmond, catcher Tom Murphy and outfielder David Dahl due to a mix of injuries and -- in Bettis' case -- testicular cancer.
Immediately before and after Madison Bumgarner put a dent in San Francisco's expectations with his dirt-bike misadventure, the Rockies treated San Francisco like road kill by taking six of seven games from the Giants and outscoring them 40-20.
The Diamondbacks are 15-9 under first-year manager Torey Lovullo. They're second in the National League with 131 runs and rank third in OPS behind the Nationals and the Eric-Thames-fueled Milwaukee Brewers. The D-backs have energized a fan base that expected big things in 2016 only to be let down by 69 wins and a fourth-place finish in the West.
It's been a while since this kind of baseball giddiness was on display in both cities. When the Diamondbacks last made the playoffs in 2011, Kirk Gibson was manager and Justin Upton was the young, up-and-coming face of the franchise. When the Rockies last qualified -- in 2009 -- Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle at midseason, Todd Helton was churning out another .300 batting average, and the Troy Tulowitzki "Tu-lo'' chant was still in vogue at Coors Field.
Understandably, the people in charge of both franchises are taking a measured, long-term approach to the euphoria.
"The early take is, it's early,'' said Arizona general manager Mike Hazen, with a slight laugh. "This is a very small percentage of the games we're going to play, and we have a long way to go and a lot to learn. But Torey said a lot during the offseason and in spring training that we were going to get after it for 162 straight games, and it's something that's been there every night.''
The Diamondbacks have a perennial MVP candidate in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and the full-time services of center fielder A.J. Pollock, whose fractured elbow in April 2016 cast such a pall over the team's performance. The D-backs also have benefited from a fast start by outfielder David Peralta, who appeared in just 48 games last season because of a wrist injury.
Arizona's starting rotation leads the majors with 144 strikeouts and ranks fourth in ERA at 3.47. But the Diamondbacks took a significant hit when Shelby Miller went down with a forearm injury this week and visited Dr. Neal ElAttrache and Dr. James Andrews for second and third opinions. Zack Godley has been summoned from Triple-A Reno and gets the first crack at replacing Miller.
Meanwhile, the Rockies have been scoring runs in bunches behind a big early contribution from Mark Reynolds and the expectedly strong production of third baseman Nolan Arenado, who appears ready to make another run at an MVP award. But the biggest improvement has come in the bullpen, which was fortified by the offseason addition of free agents Greg Holland and Mike Dunn (who hit the DL with back spasms this week). Holland, a former All-Star closer with the Kansas City Royals, has converted nine straight save opportunities and is limiting opponents to a .176 batting average in his return from Tommy John surgery.
"This guy is unflappable,'' Black said. "He's got a great demeanor. He has the personality of a closer, where he knows you have to turn the page, good or bad. He has great self-confidence and self-assuredness.''
Black, the first former pitcher to serve as manager in the 25-year history of a pitching-challenged organization, has formed a nice collaborative in Denver with Rockies pitching coach Steve Foster and bullpen coach Darren Holmes. Foster specializes in the mental side of the game, Holmes is adept at analyzing mechanics, and Black sets the overall tone by focusing on what the Rockies need to do right rather than dwelling on everything that could go wrong.
"Buddy enjoys pitching,'' said general manager Jeff Bridich. "He likes talking about pitching and he likes strategizing. The strengths and skill sets of these guys complement each other very well.''
Time has a way of exposing weaknesses and yanking April interlopers back to reality, and the Rockies and Diamondbacks both have areas of concern. The D-backs strike out a ton and have been flirting with danger by handing over the ninth inning to Fernando Rodney, who constantly lives on the edge at age 40. Rodney converted his first six save opportunities despite some ghastly peripherals, and he finally blew one by allowing five runs in the ninth inning of an 8-5 loss Wednesday.
At some point, the Diamondbacks might have to explore a more prominent role for former top prospect Archie Bradley, who's been dominant in the bullpen thus far and has the potential to either close or join the starting rotation.
Barring further injuries, Colorado's biggest challenge will be squeezing enough innings from its rotation to ensure the bullpen isn't gassed by midsummer. Through 23 games, the Rockies have received a total of 126 2/3 innings from their starters -- 12th-most among the 30 MLB teams. Until Gray returns from a stress fracture in his left foot -- a process that could drag on several weeks -- the Rockies will have to lean on rookies Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and German Marquez.
From his tenure as San Diego Padres manager from 2007-15, Black is eminently familiar with the NL West terrain. He knows that while fans in Denver and Phoenix have reason to be encouraged by their teams' impressive starts, the Rockies and Diamondbacks have a long way to go.
"The Giants and Dodgers have been the class of this division for a while,'' Black said. "To get closer to them, it's good stuff. Our position players have felt it coming, because they've been together for a number of years. We know that we can play with them position-wise. Now we've got to get the pitching up to speed all year long. If that happens, I think we can play with anybody.''