There will soon be a huge job opening at Major League Baseball headquarters.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday that he will step down from the job when his current contract expires in January 2029.
Manfred, who is in his 10th year as commish, has overseen a period of significant change in the game. With the end of his term in sight, how will he be remembered? What does he have left to accomplish? Who will take over?
We asked ESPN MLB experts to weigh in on Manfred's time in charge -- and what the conclusion of his tenure might bring for baseball.
What is Manfred's legacy as MLB commissioner so far?
Bradford Doolittle: The pitch clock. That sounds reductive, especially amid the long list of things that have changed and will change during Manfred's tenure, but we tend to remember clear, obvious, concrete things. It's hard to imagine a change with a more outsized effect on the sport, both on the field and as a product (I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but I don't see a scenario in which our collective attention span actually grows larger). Lopping off 24 minutes of game time over the course of one offseason was monumental and reversed one of baseball's most insidious trends. But the pitch clock was bigger than just a rule change: It was an avatar for an emergent willingness to allow the game to adapt to changing times. This has never been an easy ask in baseball, a sport whose engrained ways of life have been a doubled-sided coin for most of its history. For baseball to grow, length of game was a fundamental issue that had to be addressed and, under Manfred's leadership, MLB did so with resounding success.
Alden Gonzalez: We tend to put an inordinate amount of weight on what is freshest in our minds, so much of Manfred's legacy will be determined over the next half-decade. Specifically, it will be influenced by his efforts to regain the sport's popularity throughout America and keep it from fading within the collective consciousness. For all his missteps as commissioner -- the lockout, the inconsistent baseballs, the sign-stealing scandal, etc. -- Manfred has in recent years steered positive developments when it comes to making baseball more attractive to younger fans who have increasingly turned away from the sport. You can see it in everything from the electricity at the World Baseball Classic to the rule changes aimed at quickening the pace of play to his assertive handling of the RSN debacle. But plenty more needs to be done.
Jesse Rogers: It's complicated, but once you navigate around some of the missteps -- many of which were PR mistakes -- he'll likely leave the game better than when he found it. Perhaps contrary to popular opinion (or at least what many like to declare on social media), Manfred didn't "ruin" the sport -- it was declining when he took over. The historic rule changes enacted last year could be his lasting legacy depending on what the next few years bring -- more so than the Houston Astros scandal, TV blackouts or calling the World Series trophy a "piece of hardware." With time, his run as commish will look better.
David Schoenfield: The fans might say not giving the Astros a tougher punishment. The owners might point to the ever-increasing value of franchises. But I'll agree with my colleagues and point to the 2023 rules changes that gave us a faster-paced and more exciting on-field product. Baseball -- as you might have heard -- is reluctant to change. The American League instituted the DH in 1973; it took the National League nearly 50 years before it finally came to its senses (don't argue with me on this). So making significant changes to the basic structure of the sport is a monumental achievement -- and it paid off with a 9% attendance increase in 2023, surpassing the pre-pandemic totals of 2018 and 2019. If MLB can maintain that 70 million-plus annual attendance -- more than 29,000 fans per game -- the sport should remain strong well past Manfred's retirement.
What do we expect Manfred to do between now and 2029 to cement -- or change -- his legacy?
Doolittle: Under Manfred, MLB has sought to become the head of one mighty monolith atop the sport: from the embracing of international baseball, attempts to tie in the draft with the College World Series, efforts at growing the game at the youth level and, especially, the ugly consolidation and takeover of minor league baseball. Expect that effort to continue. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is hard to say, but as things like broadcast distribution and venue-related limbos are worked out, it would be surprising if MLB's say in all things baseball didn't continue to mushroom.
Gonzalez: There is a lot on his plate, but one of his biggest tasks is untangling the RSN mess and making baseball more readily available to fans throughout the country. The league office's ultimate goal is to place the linear and digital rights for all 30 teams under a national umbrella, lift the blackouts that have prevented so many fans from watching their favorite teams based on where they live and bring in a major streaming company that can essentially become the home for MLB. That process was accelerated when Diamond Sports Group went into bankruptcy a year ago, and it will be foremost in Manfred's mind over the next five years.
Rogers: It's certainly possible that whatever he does in these next five years will be our lasting memory -- that's human nature. On that end, there are myriad issues that could impact his tenure -- especially if there is another prolonged labor battle as it relates to the next CBA in 2026 (and there's a good chance there will be). Perhaps looming even larger in the years to come is the sport's growing payroll disparity. No matter how many small-market teams like the Diamondbacks make it to the World Series, it can't be good for baseball that almost all of its highest-paid stars congregate on just a few teams. Can Manfred fix that?
Schoenfield: Must I agree with my colleagues yet again? I'll also throw out expansion and realignment. We know MLB will expand at some point in the future, likely to 32 teams, which will necessitate some sort of realignment (Yankees and Mets in the same division?) and perhaps a new playoff structure. While Manfred said there is no way two new teams will be in action before he steps down, there will hopefully be a plan in place by then and he'll play a big role in picking the cities. Choosing the right ones isn't easy: Of the four expansion teams since 1993, the Tampa Bay Rays have had success on the field, but their stadium has been a disaster and attendance low; the Miami Marlins won two World Series by 2003 but have rarely been competitive since; the Colorado Rockies draw well but don't win; and the Arizona Diamondbacks haven't finished higher than ninth in the NL in attendance since 2004. Maybe it takes generations to build a fan base, but MLB certainly wishes to avoid the problems that have plagued the Rays and Marlins.
Who might be next in line to take over the job when Manfred retires?
Doolittle: The name that leaps to mind is Dan Halem, who is to Manfred as Manfred was to Bud Selig. We'll know if that's Manfred's preference if Halem's public profile is pushed over the next few years. Thinking of this from the perspective of what's ideal for the game, you'd like to see someone who can at least start with a clean slate with the MLBPA, which was very much not the case when Manfred ascended to the throne. Even better is this thought from the world of things that can never happen: How about we find a commissioner through a process that includes the players and the owners alike? Yes, the sky is pink and full of pretty birds in my world.
Gonzalez: Instead of a new candidate, I'd like to recommend a new structure. See, Rob Manfred is actually really good at his job. But we need to remember what his job is -- he represents the 30 team owners, and he has made them a lot of money during his time as commissioner. And though I do believe Manfred longs to do what's right for the game, the fact of the matter is his job is to appease his bosses. Those pursuits don't always align. Right now we have someone who represents owners (Manfred) and someone who represents players (Tony Clark). What the sport needs is a third person whose job is to uphold the best interests of baseball, simply and purely. Call him or her the chief baseball officer. The Red Sox were never right to use that title anyway.
Rogers: A couple years ago, Theo Epstein was the popular answer, but considering his ownership trajectory -- he started a new role as a senior advisor and part-owner of Fenway Sports Group earlier this month -- I'm not sure he would take the pay cut. A Dave Dombrowski-type would be great. If he were 10 years younger, he'd be a good choice.
Schoenfield: Manfred and Halem both come from the labor relations side of the MLB executive branch. If it's not Halem, it's likely to be someone with a significant television and entertainment background. As Alden and Jesse pointed out, the RSN mess points to the larger revenue issue: Those deals were like printing money, and that revenue stream is drying up. Figuring out the long-term future of how we'll watch the games will be key to maintaining those franchise values (and, for the players, their high salaries).
What does MLB need from the next commish?
Doolittle: I'd like someone who is a combination of Manfred's hyper-pragmatism and Bart Giamatti's poetically infused love of the game. I do think Manfred loves baseball, but for much of his career, it has been hard to tell that is the case. Obviously the position of commissioner is about as public-facing as it gets, and while the successor has to have a CEO-level skill set, it's also crucial that he exudes passion for the sport. Such a thing would only help improve relations with the players, as well as the fans.
Gonzalez: More tact and more personability, particularly with regard to relating with players. The disconnect between MLB and the MLB Players' Association, which reached a fever pitch during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 and in the lockout that followed the 2021 season, might ultimately be the biggest stain on Manfred's time as commissioner. It has never been more important for players to recognize the importance of marketing the sport, and for that to happen, MLB and the MLBPA need to be in lockstep. Or, at the very least, not diametrically opposed. The new commissioner needs to do a much better job of bridging that gap and regaining trust with the other side.
Rogers: The hope is to find the next Adam Silver, right? Right or wrong, the position across sports now has a major public relations aspect to it. But looking for someone with skill there should not trump focus on labor peace and competitive balance on the field, both essential to a healthy game. First and foremost, baseball must find someone who can continue to navigate the only pro sport without a salary cap while keeping the small-market teams competitive. If that person brings a little bit better of a relationship with the players' union, great. But PR comes second. The health of the sport -- on and off the field -- comes first.
Schoenfield: I'm going to disagree a little bit here with Jesse. While Silver has forged an admirable relationship with the NBA players, I'm not sure it's wise to let the players captain the ship to the degree they do in the NBA. For instance, it was the players who (A) banged the garbage cans, and (B) let the game slow down to a three-hour slog and were against the rules changes that clearly improved the sport. So, yes, work better with the players, but that's a two-way street. The next commissioner must teach the players that they, too, are the stewards of the game's future.
Is baseball better off now than it was when Manfred took over? Will it be in 2029?
Doolittle: It probably is and probably will be. The pitch clock has been huge (though the continued use of the automatic runner is a pox on the game). Revenues keep growing. Franchise values keep growing. Teams seem to be following the Braves' model for ballpark development, one in which ballclubs are as much real estate developers as they are baseball teams, and that's probably good for the sport. We'll see how things work out in Kansas City and Chicago's South Loop, not to mention St. Petersburg and Oakland/Vegas, but the model seems established. The lingering problem areas -- broadcast distribution, venue limbo -- are specific things that can be addressed. The one thing that could blow it up is if payroll disparity becomes so acute that owners in small and middle markets start squawking once again. Manfred still has another CBA negotiation cycle to get through. If baseball successfully gets to the other side of that, chances are the sport will be in a better place than it was when he took over in 2015.
Gonzalez: We live in an era of baseball with the highest strikeouts and the fewest balls in play ever. Elbow injuries continue to run rampant, corruption among those who train and sign teenagers in the Dominican Republic remains prevalent, and the regional-sports model that has been so profitable to the sport's owners is blowing up right in front of our eyes. In short, there are a lot of problems. But you can't blame any of these squarely on one person. And to his credit, Manfred has led some positive steps forward in recent years. The pitch clock has been a godsend. The World Baseball Classic has highlighted the game's globality. And MLB has implemented a lot of outreach programs to bring baseball into America's inner cities, part of its goal to combat the dwindling Black representation. This a long way of saying that in some ways the game is better; in some ways it's worse. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I see it trending in a positive direction.
Rogers: Anyone who has lived through a four-and-a-half hour game in June featuring mid-division teams and nine relievers would probably say yes. So there's the answer. It's better. If he can return the starting pitcher to prominence, then all the old school fans -- yours truly included -- will praise him even more.
Schoenfield: I guess that depends on where you live. Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Astros fans would say yes. Pittsburgh Pirates fans? Not so much. They haven't made the playoffs since 2015. The top complaint I see from fans on social media is payroll disparity, the belief that in the NFL a team like the Kansas City Chiefs can build a dynasty, while in baseball the Kansas City Royals -- who won the World Series in Manfred's first season as commissioner -- no longer have a chance. Whether that's true doesn't matter so much as the perception.