The Texas Rangers had a plan going into the season: Stay afloat during the first half until internal reinforcements arrived in the form of injured players such as Max Scherzer, Josh Jung and eventually Jacob deGrom.
Entering the final week of July, the defending World Series champions felt like they were executing that plan even if their record didn't show it. The Rangers were starting to get healthy and were within striking distance of the division-leading Houston Astros in the AL West race. An opportunity to become MLB's first repeat champions since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000 still seemed like a possibility and the front office decided to go for it again despite rumors it might subtract at the deadline.
Instead, the team went backward. A 1-5 finish to July foreshadowed an August swoon that has dropped Texas' playoff odds below 1% entering the final month.
"We are self-reflecting right now in terms of what we could have done differently to have more success this year," Rangers GM Chris Young told ESPN recently. "Did we overachieve that much and were these players outperforming projected outcomes collectively in a magical year? That's not how we felt."
Whatever the reason, the Rangers have not been able to find the same touch that carried them through last season. Some of the reinforcements had come, but they didn't make the difference Texas was counting on. Just over a month after returning from his back injury in late June, Scherzer went on the injured list for a shoulder ailment and hasn't pitched since. DeGrom is still rehabbing in the minors. Jung returned on July 30, but he has posted just a .246/.250/.351 slash line since.
More than anything, the lineup that carried Texas to its first championship has been unable to find a spark. That has been the most disappointing aspect this season.
"Most of our struggles started offensively," Young said candidly. "That was our identity last year, as an elite offensive unit. We've taken a major step back. I can't deny that. There are several contributing factors, the first of which is just some underperformance, some regression from some players that played significant roles last year that we were hoping would perform at that same level. They've taken a step back."
After finishing third in the majors in runs scored last regular season and averaging 5.7 runs per game during the postseason, the Rangers expected the lineup to be the team's strength again this season. Instead, Texas has plummeted to 22nd in the majors in runs scored this season.
"We didn't build our roster to have an elite pitching staff," Young said. "We built it to have a very good pitching staff but not elite. We didn't build around pitching and defense to say we're going to win every low scoring game. We thought the elite aspect of our team was offense. Obviously, that is not the case this year."
Besides Jung, who missed much of the season with a wrist injury, the team has watched several key hitters take a step in the wrong direction this season. Last year's breakout star, Adolis Garcia, has seen his OPS plunge from .836 last year to .678 this season. Catcher Jonah Heim also dropped more than 100 points in that category. Before getting injured, 2023 rookie sensation Evan Carter was hitting .188. Even veteran Marcus Semien's numbers have dipped as his 97 OPS+ is his lowest in a full season since 2018.
"Of course you come in with a lot of confidence coming off a World Series," Garcia said through the team interpreter. "I always come in like I'm supposed to and do my best. I'm trying to give my teammates that spirit to win every day. It doesn't always happen."
The challenge of repeating
If there is anyone in today's game who understands the difficulty of repeating, it's Rangers manager Bruce Bochy. This is his fourth attempt after winning World Series titles with the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012 and 2014. It appears -- barring a miraculous September -- that he will go 0-for-4 without even making the postseason in any of those follow-up seasons.
"We tried to come out and be the hunter. I guess we got hunted," Bochy said with a half-smirk. "The only common link I can give you is that guys don't quite have the same years."
From his four World Series titles, Bochy recited three common traits among teams that win it all -- and noted they are especially needed when trying to win again: health, big years from your best players and some surprises.
"We didn't hit on any of them," Bochy stated candidly.
The Rangers have compiled the sixth-most days on the injured list this season, though that's a bit skewed by deGrom, who has been on it all season. And Texas is getting another good season out of Seager, but he's their only player with an OPS over .800.
While some regression might be expected after winning it all, several World Series-winning executives identified a surprising common trait that helped block their own repeat quests.
"It's not the veterans," one exec from a recent World Series champion said. "You would think it would be because playing seven months of baseball takes something out of you. But those stars know how to take care of themselves. Young players can feel like they've arrived when they haven't quite yet."
Young spent his offseason soaking up lessons like this from some of these executives who have been through the trials of the season after a title in hopes of avoiding becoming the latest World Series champion to fall off the next year.
"Whatever you just watched and whatever you just felt about your team that did something incredibly special, you can't bottle that up and carry that over into next year," Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told Young in one of those conversations. "It will be a completely different vibe and clubhouse. It's hard to imagine that given what you just watched."
Some gave him the Pat Gillick strategy, named after the three-time World Series champion executive, who espoused turning over 20% of the roster every offseason just to shake things up. But with a team consisting of high-paid veterans under long-term contracts and a young core that Texas is counting on for years to come, the Rangers were built more to run it back than for a roster overhaul and went into the season excited for the opportunity.
"It just shows how hard it is to win it even once," outfielder Travis Jankowski said. "It doesn't sound that difficult, right? We did it once, let's do it again."
Then there is the "hangover" aspect for a champion. Managers hate the word, but reality can strike for a team after playing games with immense intensity at the end of the previous season. In the Rangers' case, both September and October were full of drama. The next time they picked up a baseball in a competitive setting was in late March, hardly the time of year that gets your adrenaline going. It was a concern.
"I was worried once things settled down," Bochy said. "With all the hoopla and the ring ceremony and stuff. Really, we played decent after that. It was later we started struggling scoring runs."
Texas was 16-14 on May 1. The plan started out well before going south. Part of it was something the players could not feel until going through it.
"Yes," Infielder Nathaniel Lowe said when asked if there was an inherent challenge to repeating. "Because it's like you're showing up expecting to win. But all 29 other teams know you were the previous winner. They want to come at you."
Rangers senior adviser Dayton Moore concurred, drawing on his experience as GM of the Kansas City Royals when they went to the World Series in 2014, then won it all in 2015 -- but then finished 81-81 in 2016.
"You're certainly not sneaking up on anyone," he said. "There's more intensity to every game, every moment, in every game. Teams are gunning for you. That's OK. Hopefully you recognize that as a team and you meet the intensity of your opponent."
Bochy believes his team prepared well to defend its title, but like many times before -- including for him -- things just haven't come together for the defending champions. Texas isn't eliminated just yet but talk of return trips to the Fall Classic has been replaced with simply trying to finish strong and perhaps get back to .500.
"Our window was open," Young said. "I take full responsibility and accountability for it. I stand by where we were at the deadline and the decisions we made and the chance we gave this team to get hot and go on a run. And it just didn't come together."