Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Monday night's game, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page.
What we learned in Game 2
Josh Tomlin was very good, Andrew Miller struck out five of the six batters he faced, and Cody Allen threw a 1-2-3 ninth as the Indians beat the Blue Jays 2-1, taking the first two games. Indians pitchers have 25 strikeouts in the first two games. -- David Schoenfield
Inside the pitching matchup
When Marcus Stroman is on the mound: Stroman started the wild-card game against the Orioles, giving up two runs in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks, but didn't start in the division series sweep of the Rangers. Stroman is fun to watch, a short righty with a six-pitch repertoire. He has gone to his sinker and cutter more this year, throwing those pitches more than 50 percent of the time, while mixing in his fastball, curve, slider and changeup. His game is all about keeping the ball down and getting grounders -- he had the highest ground ball rate of any qualified starter in the majors. He has been very good his past 14 starts, posting a 3.23 ERA and giving up eight home runs in 89⅓ innings.
Against the Orioles, Stroman threw 44 percent cutters and 32 percent sinkers, not throwing a single four-seam fastball. He had a similar game plan against the Indians back in August, throwing just one fastball against them in 100 pitches. During the season he threw his fastball 22 percent of the time, but he's at his best when the sinker is working or the cutter gets in on lefties. -- Schoenfield
When Trevor Bauer is on the mound: Bauer was scheduled to start Game 2 before cutting his right pinkie finger fixing his drone, requiring stitches and forcing the Indians to push him back to this game. Yes, this never happened to Sandy Koufax or Bob Gibson. As Buster Olney wrote the other day, aside from how Bauer will be able to pitch with the stitches, another issue that could potentially pop up is if the stitches start bleeding and blood gets on the ball and whether the umpires will view that as a foreign substance.
The good news for the Indians is that Bauer won't need to go deep into the game. Outside of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, the bullpen has barely been used, with Bryan Shaw pitching 2 2/3 innings and Dan Otero one inning. We'll almost certainly see Otero, who had a 1.53 ERA, and perhaps Zach McAllister and Jeff Manship.
As for Bauer, he had one hot streak through early July, but finished with a 4.26 ERA, including 6.39 in September. He went 4 2/3 innings in his playoff start against the Red Sox, finishing with six strikeouts and no walks but serving up two home runs on a night the ball was flying at Progressive Field -- as it often does. Bauer allowed 15 of his 20 home runs at home, although the ball also tends to fly out at Rogers Centre.
Bauer works off a fastball that averages 93.2 mph, preferring to work middle-away to both lefties and righties. He works up in the zone with the fastball, which led to a .447 slugging percentage allowed on the pitch. You know Blue Jays hitters will be looking to feast off some of those high fastballs. He adds a curveball, cutter and changeup, with the curveball his go-to wipeout pitch -- batters hit .134/.145/.221 with a 45 percent strikeout rate against it.
Player in the spotlight
Jose Bautista. He's hitless in his past 14 at-bats after starting the postseason with home runs his first two games. He hit just .223 against fastballs this year so let's see if Bauer and the bullpen challenge him with hard stuff. -- Schoenfield
Did you know ...
Bauer faced the Blue Jays twice in the regular season, holding Toronto to a .476 OPS against his fastball, his lowest OPS against any team that he faced multiple times. Just 3.2 percent of his fastballs were hard-hit by the Blue Jays, and they missed on 28 percent of those pitches, all his best marks. -- ESPN Stats & Information
What will decide Monday night's game
Bauer getting the Blue Jays to chase breaking stuff. Bauer threw just 78 pitches in his only start this postseason, 27 of which (35 percent) were breaking balls. Bauer used his breaking ball on fewer than 20 percent of pitches during the regular season. Despite the small sample size in the postseason, batters chased 50 percent (8 of 16) of his breaking balls outside the strike zone. Will Bauer adjust his approach against the Blue Jays? Toronto swung at 26 percent of breaking balls outside the strike zone during the regular season, the lowest chase rate in the majors against the pitch. -- ESPN Stats & Information
Choosing sides: Who will win?
Toronto's slug-happy lineup was a no-show during the two games in Cleveland, but the Blue Jays will be reinvigorated by a return to Rogers Centre. The Stroman-Bauer matchup is advantageous for Toronto, and the Jays' offense will do enough to grind out a win and climb back in the series. -- Jerry Crasnick
The Blue Jays will finally start hitting Monday night. They always hit better at Rogers Centre and against the droned Bauer, it probably will continue to be that way. Toronto has too good of an offense to stay down for too much longer. I think they will get to Bauer and hand the Indians their first loss of the postseason. -- Andrew Marchand
Where the series stands
Only one team -- the 2004 Red Sox -- has rallied from a 3-0 series deficit, so this one certainly has a must-win feel to it for the Blue Jays, especially with Terry Francona threatening to bring Corey Kluber back in Game 4. -- Schoenfield