No. 19 Mariners | No. 17 Indians | Nos. 20-11
No. 19: TAMPA BAY
Last Season: 80-82
Projected record: 80-82 (fifth in AL East)
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The Rays finished 80-82 in 2015, good for fourth in the American League East. Disappointing as that may sound, it was quite an accomplishment considering they started the season with three-fifths of their projected rotation on the disabled list. In search of mores runs to couple with their impressive pitching and defense, the club sought to add power this offseason, a difficult task with a limited budget. Corey Dickerson, Steve Pearce, Hank Conger and Logan Morrison all come with question marks, but they should provide the boost the team seeks. Chris Archer will lead a talented rotation of under-30 starters with possible help from within, available in the form of top prospect Blake Snell and a midseason return of veteran Alex Cobb.
Kevin Kiermaier had arguably the best defensive season for a center fielder in the history of baseball. His 7.4 WAR was good for seventh in all of baseball. -- ESPN.com (graphic from Dan Szymborski)
The Rays have a shot to compete in 2016 for the same reasons they have a shot every year: They have good starting pitching, backed by an above-average defense. Archer has blossomed into a bona fide ace on and off the field. He will be backed by lefty Matt Moore, who finished strong in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, as well as Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly and the surprisingly effective Erasmo Ramirez. The left-handed Snell is not far off, and the team has circled July as a potential return for Cobb. It's hard to find another team that goes this deep in terms of quality arms. Backing the pitchers is a strong core of defenders, led by two-time Gold Glove Award (2009 and '10) third baseman Evan Longoria and Gold Glove-winning center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
Trying to revamp the offense is an annual exercise for the Rays, one that has ended in futility a few times now. Part of the game when working with a small budget is taking on some damaged goods and hoping for good fortune. As noted, the team went after power this winter. But Dickerson, the top addition, comes with the stigma commonly attached with players leaving hitter-friendly Coors Field, Morrison has durability concerns and Pearce has an up-and-down track record. Meanwhile, the bullpen was a glaring weak link even before closer Brad Boxberger, who had 10 relief losses in 2015, succumbed to a core injury and subsequent surgery. Ground-ball specialist Ryan Webb and lefty Xavier Cedeno are good pitchers, but the club will need former prospects Alex Colome and Enny Romero to take to their new roles and do it quickly.
No. 17 Indians | No. 19 Mariners | Nos. 20-11
