This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's June 8 World Football Issue. Subscribe today!
The Hack-a-DeAndre trend heading into the NBA Finals enrages many a fan. Why? It's effective (also: unbelievably painful to watch). Still, few of the outraged are likely aware of a greater threat on the horizon, one that a Rice math prof named Franklin Kenter has uncovered. Earlier this year, Kenter used combinatorial game theory to determine the optimal time to foul during end-game scenarios. And it's terrifying! Let's just say that if Kenter's right -- and if his heretical ideas gain traction -- he might well have produced a doomsday manual for the destruction of late-game drama.
When to start fouling when behind
So what should a team do when down by five with 1:02 left? Begin fouling, says Kenter. And he means hacking not just DeAndre Jordan or Dwight Howard but also your typical player (and his 75.5 percent FT rate). Hornets coach Steve Clifford warns that "you have to take other things into consideration, like how many 3-point shooters you have or the size and ballhandling of your opponents." Still, Kenter's model reveals that while two free throws yield an average of 1.5 points and a typical possession results in roughly one point, trading half a point for an extra 20 seconds often benefits a trailing team. Why? More time, more scoring opportunities. Which is big. But bigger still ...
If trailing...
Down by 15? Start fouling at the 3-minute mark for a shot at turning the game around.
When to start fouling when ahead
... is the idea that the leading team should foul. "When I first came up with it," Kenter says, "I thought there was a bug in my code." More like a bug in the game. Consider that teams already foul with a three-point lead in the final seconds to prevent game-tying shots. Fouling earlier -- say, up by six with 1:54 left -- relies on similar logic: Limit scoring opportunities for the other team, reduce odds of a comeback. Of course, taken to extremes, this portends 45-minute games topped by three minutes of the world's worst game of H-O-R-S-E. The threat, then, might not reside in Hack-a-DeAndre but rather Hack-a-Team.
If leading...
Think you're in the clear? Not so fast. Even when ahead, reducing scoring scenarios is crucial to maintain the lead.
26 percent
Of the 66 playoff games in the first two rounds of 2015, 17 (or 26 percent) were decided by five points or fewer or in overtime. During the regular season: only 14.7 percent.
2:53
Game 4 of the Clippers-Rockets series lasted nearly three hours. Why? Houston sent LA to the line for 63 free throws, including 34 tries (14 makes) for human bricklayer DeAndre Jordan.
Data from 2007-08 through 2013-14.