Things look dire for the Illawarra Hawks, who face a do-or-die test on the road this Sunday having lost the opening two games of the NBL Grand Final series to the Perth Wildcats.
The Hawks have led or been tied at half-time of both games, so they've been in the contest, but Perth have clipped their wings in the second half of each fixture: The Hawks lead the first-half scoring 87-82 but the Wildcats have outscored them by a whopping 96-67 combined margin in the second half. And in winning both games, the Wildcats have dominated on both ends of the floor: In game one, they established dominance on the offensive glass and then in game two defensive intensity limited the Hawks to 31.25 percent shooting in the second half.
So all the signs point towards the Wildcats sweeping the series, especially after Illawarra coach Rob Beveridge said his Hawks players "went soft in the third quarter [of Game 2] and got out-rebounded 16-6, and that there is the difference between winning a championship". But the last year, if it has taught us anything, has told us never count out the underdog. Leicester City, Western Bulldogs and Cronulla Sharks each were unlikely and unfashionable champions; Cleveland Cavaliers became the first team to win the NBA Finals after trailing 3-1; Chicago Cubs broke a 108-year drought after rallying from 3-1 down to win the World Series, against Cleveland Indians; and New England Patriots pulled off the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history.
Hence there is reason to retain belief.
You want more than precedent?
The Hawks also are loaded with incredible scoring talent, both on the outside in the form of Rotnei Clarke and on the inside with A.J. Ogilvy. They'll need both of their big guns to fire, along with at least one standout performance from another player, but the ability to put points on the board in a hurry is their biggest weapon. They have also addressed failings in the final series to date.
The major talking point out of Game 1 was the offensive rebounding prowess of the Wildcats, who tallied 17 compared with three for the Hawks. The Hawks addressed that deficiency to finish Game 2 tied at 10 offensive rebounds apiece, but still they have to learn better how to unpick the seemingly impenetrable Wildcats defence.
Illawarra finished the regular season as the league's second-best scoring unit, at 88.79 points per game, but they've been unable to crack the 80-point barrier in the two games of the final series while the Wildcats have tallied 89 points a game. The Hawks are still bringing firepower off the bench, but the starting five has struggled to put big numbers on the board: The starting unit has outscored the bench by just a combined 10 points against Perth, with only one double-figure scorer in each game while the Wildcats have had three in each.
Marvelle Harris may be key here. The import missed Game 1 and his performance in Game 2 wasn't up to his usual standard, but we can expect a much bigger output from him during Game 3 now that he is rested and back into a routine.
Harris is likely to be inserted back into the starting line-up; if the Beveridge decides to bring him off of the bench, however, don't be surprised to see the Hawks' second unit outscore the starting five.
Illawarra, meanwhile, have had no answers for the Wildcats on defence; in particular, they have been unable to slow down Casey Prather. The Wildcats star is averaging 20 points, five rebounds and 5.5 assists in the two games, doing whatever he has wanted against the helpless Hawks. Bad news for the Hawks is this isn't new: Prather has averaged more 20 points in six games against the Hawks this season, and Illawarra need a big game defensively from Nick Kay and Coenraad if they're to put the brakes on his Finals MVP campaign.
So it seems grim for the Hawks; it seems like everything is against them. But this is not yet over, and a comeback remains possible even if no team in NBL history has recovered a 2-0 deficit in the Grand Final. History is made to be broken, and the Hawks head back to Perth knowing they handed the Wildcats one of their four home losses this season. They can draw confidence from that, and surely, with the chips stacked against them, they'll attack with a nothing-to-lose mindset. And much as no starter other than Ogilvy has put his hand up and stood tall, Tim Coenraad can still heat and Mitch Norton can easily get into a scoring groove.
During the Round 8 win on the road, the Hawks dominated the rebound battle 40-29 and shot a remarkable 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Wildcats didn't have Damian Martin or Bryce Cotton during that meeting, but the keys remain the same: If the Hawks can control the glass and get hot from deep, this series could just become interesting.
They have the tools, and one of the best coaches in the NBL at the helm, so their fans surely have a glimmer of hope that their first grand final appearance since 2010 doesn't end in a clean sweep.
Beveridge certainly has kept the faith in his players, saying "our guys are close to it".
"If we can just match their tenacity on the glass the whole time, I truly believe in these guys that we can still do something special as a group," Beveridge told NBL.com.au.
Beveridge believes the Hawks' performance in Game 2 "was better ... but Perth's was better as well so this series has gone to another level".
"We know it's going to be tough in Perth but we're going over there to have a crack at it."