The NBA's Eastern Conference is as unpredictable as any point in recent history.
Superstar injuries during last season's playoffs depleted two East powers. The upstart Detroit Pistons sit atop the standings at the quarter mark. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers, a preseason conference favorite that returned most of last season's 64-win team, are eighth. The Milwaukee Bucks, who made a free agency splash, are battling to stay in the play-in race as they await the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
With so much basketball to be played, it's too early to predict the contenders that will match up for conference supremacy in the spring. And while the superstars -- among them, the Pistons' Cade Cunningham, the New York Knicks' Jalen Brunson, and, for now, the Bucks' Antetokounmpo -- are well known, this race could very well be decided by players who fill in the gaps around them.
They're the wild cards, and they could determine the futures of their teams come postseason time. Let's examine four players who fit the bill and what league insiders are saying about their seasons so far -- plus break down one player that has the power to totally transform the race.
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Season so far: Career highs in points (18.9) and assists (4.0)
Why he'll impact the East race: Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson chuckled when Mobley was referred to as Slim Duncan, a nod to the Hall of Fame big man from the San Antonio Spurs. And the league has been waiting for Mobley to truly assert his dominance despite his reluctant personality and willingness to fit in alongside Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
The Cavs haven't dominated the conference (14-11 this season after 25 games compared to 21-4 last year), and the vibes have been different. If Mobley turns into the full-time matchup nightmare, there are maybe two East players who possess the two-way impact of the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
What league insiders are saying:
"Defensively, he might be the best in the league," a Western Conference assistant general manager told ESPN. "There hasn't been an elite big who didn't have a guard to get him the ball in order to be dominant. He doesn't have to be Tim Duncan. Why can't he be what Pau Gasol was?"
"He has the skill set and IQ," a West GM said. "Can he assert himself and [can] the team consciously feature him more? So much of this is on the team to force him to be more aggressive."
"He's a good piece, just not dominant," an assistant coach said. "I'm not sure he has 'it.' He's not nasty. He's skilled but not [with] elite skills. Evan and that entire team is on the skilled side, not nasty."
Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks
Season so far: Career highs in 3-point percentage (42.6), assists (4.1) and steals (2.0); scored a season-high 35 in a near comeback against the Celtics last week.
Why he'll impact the East race: When OG Anunoby is healthy, it truly unleashed Bridges, the former Defensive Player of the Year runner-up. With the Knicks' roster not being the strongest at the point of attack (Jalen Brunson) or at the rim (Karl-Anthony Towns), Bridges, Anunoby and Josh Hart take on added responsibility on defense.
Bridges is not the most physical player but has fit well on offense next to Brunson and Towns. Knicks coach Mike Brown has also used Bridges in spurts as a primary playmaker to alleviate pressure on Brunson, who possessed the ball longer than any player in the league last season. Bridges is among the best players who hasn't made an All-Star team, and during last year's run to the conference finals, he made late key plays to help fuel a second-round upset of the Celtics.
What league insiders are saying:
"He takes his defensive matchup. He's not soft," the assistant GM said. "He guarded Giannis in the [2021] Finals. He can give you 20-25 points if you're not careful. Do I wish he were a little stronger? Yes. But I don't expect him to be some bull like Julius Randle. There's guys in this league who won't play. He plays every night."
"An excellent complementary player," the GM said. "Are you gonna ask him to step into a consistent role, as a dominant scorer? That's not who he is. But he defends at a high level. ... In Phoenix you had more physical guys around him. His whole thing is length, and that's valuable."
"He's a bit overrated as a defender, more of a 3-and-D guy," an East assistant coach said. "Can he impact winning if he's your fourth or fifth best player? Yes, although the price tag suggests something else. ... He can support your best players, but he doesn't make others better, he doesn't draw two [defenders] to the ball."
Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Season so far: Career highs in scoring (11.8) and assists (3.1); has a steal in 15 consecutive games
Why he'll impact the East race: Thompson can lock up most wing scorers in the conference and, if nothing else, has shown a willingness to stick his nose into games and get physical.
He's not a threat as a shooter, which makes things tricky when the Pistons need to create spacing for Cade Cunningham as a ball handler and Jalen Duren as a rim-roller. But that trio -- plus-13.8 points per 100 possessions this season -- is Detroit's most-used and most efficient lineup. If the Pistons can find shooting -- perhaps with a deadline move -- it'll make Thompson that much more valuable as the East leaders try to stay there.
What league insiders are saying:
"I don't just like him. I love him," the assistant GM said. "He could easily be a top-10 player, he's that level of athlete [with a] rare combination of size and strength and quickness. And he's tough, plays through contact. The shooting will get better, but it's ridiculous how much he defends."
"The difficult thing for him: Cade is ball-dominant and Ausar isn't a floor-spacer," the GM said. "Can he be a factor in the playoffs? Absolutely. What you want from him is a couple games in a series where he scores more than his average. ... You need role players to play above their heads for two games in a series."
Desmond Bane, Orlando Magic
Season so far: 18.3 points, 4.5 assists, career-low 31.9% from 3
Why he'll impact the East race: The Bane trade signaled that Orlando is going for it in the East, especially with the plethora of draft picks the Magic sent to the Memphis Grizzlies to acquire Bane's playoff experience and shooting.
It has been choppy so far but with signs of a breakout, especially since the Magic have had to deal with consistent injuries to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (Banchero was back for one game after a groin injury before Wagner exited Sunday's game against the Knicks with a left leg injury). Bane scored 37 in back-to-back wins over the Chicago Bulls and Pistons, showing he's getting more comfortable in the Magic offense.
And Bane adds an element of irritation the Magic will need if they want to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs. On Sunday, he whipped the ball at Anunoby after being annoyed at a play on the other end, and last week he found himself jawing at everyone wearing a Pistons uniform during their NBA Cup game.
What league insiders are saying:
"They need his outside shooting, and he struggled early, just like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope [whom Bane was traded for]. You wonder if it's a roster problem," the GM said. "He's learning how to play off Paolo. He played off Ja [Morant], but Ja played so [much faster]."
"He can play with or without the ball. Is he elite? No, but he's good. He can score at all three levels," the East assistant coach said. "I'd rather have him at $28 million than Devin Booker at $75 million. ... If you notice, Bane started playing better when Paolo went out. I'm not sure if Paolo is a winner, though. And you could tell with what Orlando gave up, they thought they were one player away from June."
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Season so far: No games played as he rehabs from an Achilles injury
How he could impact the East race: Tatum might prove to be the ultimate East wild card. It seems like he got a jump start on rehab following that devastating injury during the second round of the Celtics' series loss to the Knicks. The Celtics haven't capsized despite missing Tatum and losing championship veterans Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford. They're 15-9, currently riding a five-game win streak to the third spot in the East.
Jaylen Brown has adjusted to being the first option, averaging 32 points, 7.7 rebounds and 6 assists over his past nine games.
But last week, Tatum told former teammate Marcus Morris on the "Morris Code Show" that, at the 29-week mark, this is the "strongest I've ever been." It begs the question: Could Tatum really return for a late-season boost and turn the Celtics into a genuine title threat?
What league insiders are saying:
"I think he should sit this one out," the East assistant coach said.
"The tough thing about this is, he's coming off such a serious injury. You can't expect the Tatum we've seen over the last several years," the GM said. "If he comes back in April, how much can he play to get the confidence to get a playoff feel? ... They'd be dangerous, but that's a lot to ask. You're going from zero to 100, when the grind is its thickest. That's a lot of pressure to jump into. I don't know if that's the best short- or long-term [plan] for anybody."