It is State of Origin time again and the Blues were looking pretty smug with a backline bristling with destructive power. Then Latrell Mitchell strained a calf at training, forcing a change. Meanwhile the Maroons continue their preparations, knowing the bookies have written them off, giving them the underdog status they love to feed on.
Which state will come out on top in this series opener at the magnificent Adelaide Oval?
Wednesday, May 31
Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues, Adelaide Oval, 8:05pm (AEST)
Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 15. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 9. Ben Hunt 16. Reuben Cotter 11. Tom Gilbert 12. David Fifita 13. Patrick Carrigan Bench: 8. Thomas Flegler 10. Lindsay Collins 14. Harry Grant 17. Jai Arrow
Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden 19. Christian Welch
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Tevita Pangai Junior 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 14. Junior Paulo 15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Nicho Hynes
Reserves: 18. Matt Burton 19. Stefano Utoikamanu
Match Officials: Referee: Ashley Klein, Sideline Officials: Drew Oultram, Phil Henderson, Video Referee: Grant Atkins.
Verdict: State of Origin would not be State of Origin without the Blues starting as firm favourites to win the opener and indeed the series. Of course weight of money has never stopped a determined Queensland side from causing an upset. Comparing the teams on paper misses the true meaning of Origin, the Maroons could field a team plucked from the Suncorp Stadium crowd and would still somehow manage to test the Blues. But this year, it would be easy enough to argue that the Maroons have an edge on paper.
The Blues were hoping that reuniting Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic in the centres would return the same result as last time that lethal combination took to the Origin stage. But, alas, the best laid plans have come unstuck with Mitchell's calf strain. Still the Blues will slot another Panther into the backline with Stephen Crichton looking to combine with his club teammates Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and Brian To'o to cause havoc.
Still, we must remember the old adage that the big games are won in the forwards and here's where this contest really gets interesting. The Queenslanders have a relatively fresh set of starting props in Tom Flegler and Lindsay Collins, with Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Reuben Cotter and Jai Arrow ready to cause trouble from the bench. Their back-row of Tom Gilbert, David Fifita and Pat Carrigan have been playing out of their skins at club level and will be ready to tear into the Blues.
NSW on the other hand have taken a punt on Tevita Pangai Junior and resurrected the Origin career of Tyson Frizell, while including bench forward Liam Martin, who has struggled with injury all season. They do have some superstar forwards in Payne Haas, Isaah Yeo and Cameron Murray, while Hudson Young has been incredible for the Raiders this year. Overall, if the Maroons can match the Blues up the middle, they could have an advantage on the edges and on the back of that look for Cameron Munster and Reece Walsh to cut loose.
I'm tipping Queensland to start the series with a win, setting off cries for changes to the Blues line-up and the end of Brad Fittler's coaching tenure.
Tip: Maroons by 8
TAB odds: Maroons $2 (+1.5 $1.90) Blues $1.85 (-1.5 $1.90)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check tab.com.au for the latest.