Queensland head to Melbourne knowing they only have to win one of the remaining two games to claim yet another State of Origin series. New South Wales have made five changes to the team that battled bravely with 12 players only to lose the opener. Have they strengthened the team enough to defeat the settled and deadly effective Queensland team?
The women have already played two games and they head to Townsville for a decider after Queensland won Game II in soggy Newcastle by a field goal. If the opening two games are any indication, this promises to be a classic.
Wednesday, June 26
State of Origin, Game II
New South Wales vs. Queensland
MCG, 8:05pm (AEST)
New South Wales: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Haumole Olakau'atu 17. Spencer Leniu Reserves: 18. Mitchell Barnett 19. Cameron McInnes 20. Luke Keary
Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Jaydn Su'a 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Bench: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kurt Capewell Reserves: 18. Dane Gagai 19. Heilum Luki 20. Trent Loiero
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: Chris Sutton, David Munro Bunker: Grant Atkins
Prediction: It is very hard to take much out of the first game in terms of predicting the winner of this one, with the Blues' plans thrown into chaos after Joseph Suaali'i left them a player short with his reckless hit on Reece Walsh in just the eighth minute. The task of beating Queensland became nearly impossible with players required to scramble in defence to cover the extra territory that the Maroons so expertly exploited. To be fair, the loss of Walsh so early in the game also meant we have no idea of how much more potent the Maroons attack could have been.
On top of what happened in Game I, we are presented with the familiar situation of a Blues team which has had almost a third of its players replaced in a desperate effort to rescue the series. At fullback we now have Dylan Edwards, who was originally selected for Game I, but replaced by James Tedesco after straining a quad muscle. Edwards should be a step up from Tedesco in terms of speed and his working relationship with Jarome Luai, but the Blues do lose a wealth of experience in Tedesco and no one can ever be sure whether a player's brilliance at club level will translate to the toughest stage. Edwards deserves a shot and we should see him make a real difference to the sharpness of the Blues' attack.
Suaali'i's replacement is the enigmatic Latrell Mitchell, arguably one of the best players in the game of rugby league, on his day. At his very best, he will be a real weapon for the Blues backline, one that already boasts form players Stephen Crichton, Brian To'o and Zac Lomax.
Into the halves comes Mitchell Moses, currently the next best thing to having Nathan Cleary in the No.7 jersey. Moses should bring a much stronger kicking game than the one produced by Nicho Hynes in Game I. Moses has the potential to take this game by both hands and really produce an influential performance. He also has been known to go quiet for large, important portions of the game, something the Blues can ill afford in this vital clash.
Into the forwards comes Cameron Murray, one of the superstars of the game. He replaces Cameron McInnes, leaving Isaah Yeo on the bench again, where he will be twiddling his thumbs waiting to make some kind of contribution. Murray himself is dynamic with the ball and always capable of catching a scattered defensive line off guard.
Perhaps the most contentious change for New South Wales was the inclusion of Connor Watson on the bench. Maguire has seen something in the Roosters utility, and must have a plan to utilise his skillset. Reece Robson had a great game at hooker in Game I, so whether Watson comes on to allow him to freshen up or just sits and waits until injury, we'll have to wait and see.
Looking to wrap up the series, the Maroons have made only a couple of changes, forced through injury. Instead of searching for the next big Origin star, they have turned to two experienced and battle-hardened veterans in Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell. Both are great runners of the ball and solid in defence, with Capewell having played a fair bit of football in the centres, should the Maroons need to shuffle their backline again.
The rest of the Maroons team is the same as Game I and they will carry the advantage of familiarity onto the MCG. Ben Hunt and Daly Cherry-Evans will control things, working to take advantage of speedsters Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow out wide. As always they have Harry Grant on the bench, waiting to make his mark on the game as the Blues defenders start to to feel the weight in their legs.
The outcome of this game will depend on how well the new Blues play. If they all play to their best ability and somehow combine perfectly, the Blues will be hard to beat. But, it is the Maroons who take the field with far fewer question marks hanging over their heads. We know what they are capable of, and we know they will produce under pressure. It is that advantage that should see them take the series at the MCG and leave the Blues searching for more answers.
-- Darren Arthur.
Tip: Maroons by 8
PointsBet odds: Blues $1.90 (+1.5 $1.80) Maroons $1.90 (-1.5 $2)
Thursday, June 30
Women's State of Origin, Game III
Queensland vs. New South Wales
Queensland Bank Stadium, 7:45pm (AEST)
Queensland: 1. Tamika Upton 2. Julia Robinson 3. Shenae Ciesiolka 4. Evania Pelite 5. Emmanita Paki 6. Tarryn Aiken 7. Ali Brigginshaw 8. Shannon Mato 9. Lauren Brown 10. Jessika Elliston 11. Tazmin Rapana 12. Romy Teitzel 13. Keilee Joseph Bench: 14. Emma Manzelmann 15. Makenzie Weale 16. Sophie Holyman 20. Destiny Brill Reserves: 18. Zahara Temara 19. Emily Bass 17. Chelsea Lenarduzzi
New South Wales: 1. Emma Tonegato 2. Jaime Chapman 3. Jessica Sergis 4. Isabelle Kelly 5. Tiana Penitani 6. Corban Baxter 7. Rachael Pearson 8. Millie Elliott 9. Olivia Higgins 10. Caitlan Johnston 11. Kezie Apps 12. Yasmin Clydsdale 13. Olivia Kernick Bench: 14. Taliah Fuimaono 15. Keeley Davis 16. Grace Kemp 17. Sarah Togatuki Reserves: 18. Jakiya Whitfeld 19. Kirra Dibb 20. Ellie Johnston
Officials
Referee: Belinda Sharpe Touchies: Tori Wilkie. Karra-Lee Nolan Bunker: Kasey Badger
Prediction: It seems fitting that for the first three-game Women's State of Origin series that the winner will be decided by the outcome of Game III in front of a likely sold-out crowd at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
With Queensland winning Game II in the final two minutes courtesy of a Lauren Brown field goal, the series is now level and the winner takes all on Thursday night.
Despite the loss in Game II, Blues coach Kylie Hilder has opted for the same team, making no changes. This is unsurprising given that the Blues lost by the slimmest of margins in Game II. My hope is that both Jaime Chapman and Jessica Sergis, who each seemed to be hampered by injury in Game II are fit for the decider.
Maroons coach Tahnee Norris has been forced into making several changes due to injury. Destiny Brill has been ruled out after sustaining a calf injury at training. She has been replaced by Lily Peacock who featured for the Maroons in the U19s State of Origin last Thursday night. After making her Maroons debut in Game II, Sienna Lofipo has been ruled out with a PCL injury pushing Keilee Joseph into the starting team. But the biggest change is the recall of forward Chelsea Lenarduzzi, whose role according to Norris is to "bring the energy to camp".
To date, every single Women's State of Origin game has been decided by a margin of less than 12 and I expect this Thursday to be no different.
The Blues proved in Game I that they can play in front of a hostile crowd and manage the pressure. They did it at Suncorp Stadium, so there is no reason they can't do this for Game III.
The Blues squandered plenty of opportunities in Game II, and Chapman and Sergis both playing with niggles didn't help NSW out wide. Chapman barely got any ball during the game after running riot in Game I. I'm expecting this to change in Game III.
Forced changes mean the Maroons will also play differently. Lofipo was brought in for Game II to shore up the Maroons defence; and it worked. Lofipo ran for 86 metres and had five tackles in 37 minutes of game time. No doubt Norris will be looking to Joseph to deliver a similar workload.
I would also like to see more from both sets of halves. For Queensland, Ali Brigginshaw seemed more dominating the first half, whilst Taryn Aitken stole the show in the second half, scoring a try that put the Maroons back in the game. I would like to see them work together more in this game. As for NSW, Rachael Pearson needs to use her long kicking game to the Blues' advantage, which she struggled to do in Game II.
I'm tipping a Blues win, but by less than 12 points with Jessica Sergis to be Player of the Match.
-- Mary Konstantopoulos.
Tip: Blues by < 12
PointsBet odds: Maroons $2.14 (+2.5 $1.85) Blues $1.70 (-2.5 $1.95)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.