After a thrilling final round, the NRL finals are locked in - and it's remarkable how, despite all the unpredictable results and amazing footy we've seen in 2024, it's the same old story at the top of the heap with the last four teams to win the title all finishing in the top four (and the fifth-most recent, the Cowboys, in fifth for good measure).
But in saying that, it looks like one of the most open finals races in years. Penrith are still Penrith, but the years of having their squad feasted upon in the off-season are finally catching up with them. Melbourne have been fantastic in the regular season, but still have questions in parts of their game. The Roosters were a popular pick up until a couple of weeks ago, when disaster struck their campaign - so who's going all the way?
Tier one: The heavyweights
Melbourne Storm
Why they can win: The standout team all year, have beaten Penrith twice, and are pretty much at full strength with Ryan Papenhuyzen being cleared to play this weekend and Eli Katoa avoiding suspension. Jahrome Hughes is in career-best form and the other members of the spine have started to heat up in recent weeks. Katoa, along with new signing Shawn Blore, have been an incredible backrow and several unheralded players including Grant Anderson and Tyran Wishart have stepped up remarkably well to become big pieces in this machine.
What might stop them: Melbourne's middle has been their only point of contention all year. While still a solid player, Nelson Asofa-Solomona is not the wrecking ball he was a couple of years ago, nor is Christian Welch. Penrith's premierships have been mostly won by attrition - and if they can drag the Storm into a forward battle, that's where they can find success.
Penrith Panthers
Why they can win: Do you need a reason? What human being with even a cursory knowledge of the NRL could argue against the Panthers at this point? There's match winners across the field, and after a tougher regular season than usual, thanks to a boatload of injuries and Origin absences, it's all coming together when it matters once again.
What might stop them: If Nathan Cleary's shoulder injury is worse than we think. It's obviously not a coincidence that the game's best player being out for half the season for a variety of reasons has seen Penrith post their lowest wins total and points per game since 2019. Brad Schneider has struggled to fill the biggest shoes in rugby league, but if the two-time Clive Churchill Medallist returns without any issues, it's full steam ahead.
Tier two: Flawed, but still a threat
Sydney Roosters
Why they can win: James Tedesco has been excellent for months now, both Joseph Suaali'i and Joseph Manu will want to finish their time with the Tricolours in the best possible way, and the forwards are playing with plenty of fight and aggression in a season that no pack has really stood up and elevated themselves above anyone else.
What might stop them: A couple of weeks ago, you might have said there wasn't much that could. But after a horror Sunday arvo loss to the Raiders, everything changed. Not only did their home final aspirations go up in smoke, but they lost Victor Radley, Sam Walker, and Brandon Smith to injuries - the latter two for a long time, and both of whom are almost impossible to replace.
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
Why they can win: A very strong finish to the season at Brookvale Oval against a fellow finals team will give them a world of confidence. They boast some big wins this year over teams like the Storm and the Roosters, Nicho Hynes is back, they've unearthed a bonafide star in the middle of the field in Tom Hazelton, and they may have the best outside backs in the league.
What might stop them: For Cronulla, their shortcomings seem more mental than physical. The biggest knock on them in recent years has been an inability to shake the tag of regular season wonders. Unlike in previous years, they did grab some impressive scalps this year - but until they can get a finals win or two under their belts, the 'glass cannons' reputation will remain. Maybe it's this year?
Tier Three: Potential surprise packets
North Queensland Cowboys
Why they can win: An array of attacking talent, game breakers who can turn a contest from anywhere on the field and a big, physical forward pack. After tumbling as low as 12th going into Magic Round, they've enjoyed a remarkable turnaround in fortunes and have only lost two matches since the start of July.
What might stop them: One of the more confounding teams in the NRL, their squad on paper is one of the very best (as evidenced by their Origin contingent), but have repeatedly struggled to string together quality performances for several weeks in a row - but they've made the most of their very kind draw to finish the season, and look closer to what they were in 2022 than 2023 at the moment.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Why they can win: No team has worked harder than them, they nailed almost all of their off-season signings, and Cameron Ciraldo's methods are paying off, with the Dogs boasting the best defence in the league, for most of the season.
What might stop them: The 'most of the season' doesn't include the last couple of weeks, where they were heavily beaten by the teams directly above and below them on the ladder. Canterbury have been greater than the sum of their parts all season long, but it looks like the months and months of non-stop effort and aggression, especially in defence, is finally starting to take a toll.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Why they can win: Possibly the most hot and cold team in the NRL, with impressive home wins against all three of the top three teams this year. Daly Cherry-Evans is in career best form and may win the Dally M, and they will likely welcome Tom Trbojevic back from injury for their elimination final this weekend.
What might stop them: Defence has been an issue for them all year, with only North Queensland conceding more points out of the top eight sides. They looked extremely vulnerable on the edges last weekend against Cronulla, and overall may lack the firepower in the forwards to match it with the top teams in September.
Tier Four: So you're saying there's a chance...
Newcastle Knights
Why they can win: It's 2023 all over again in Newcastle - a charmed run to the top eight, on the back of some scintillating footy from Kalyn Ponga and some season-best footy from the supporting cast. It took almost the entire season but Adam O'Brien has settled on a spine combination that is working, and the Knights are a red-hot chance of springing an upset this week.
What might stop them: As great a story as the Knights have been in the past month, they have the hardest road possible through the finals and no margin for error. Their record against other finals teams is a gigantic red flag as well; they played ten times against the top eight, and aside from that early season win at home against Melbourne, they lost the rest.
Week 1 predictions
Panthers vs. Roosters - BlueBet Stadium, Friday 7:50pm
Storm vs. Sharks - AAMI Park, Saturday 4:05pm
Cowboys vs. Knights - Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 7:50pm
Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles - Accor Stadium, Sunday 4:05pm