When the NCAA tournament selection committee revealed its top 16 teams for the first time last week, the most eyebrow-raising news was Maryland's No. 9 ranking, which translates to a No. 3 seed. Most women's basketball observers believe the now 21-1 Terrapins are better than that.
The conclusion was that a subpar strength of schedule -- seven nonconference opponents outside the RPI top 200 -- hurt Maryland's résumé.
However, that might not be the only thing holding Maryland back. The Big Ten's lack of strength isn't doing the Terps any favors, either.
The league has really been in a down cycle the last few years and could be hitting its lowest point this season. The Big Ten has gone from the fourth-rated RPI conference in 2015, to fifth last year, and now sixth in 2017. Only four teams from the league made the NCAA tournament last year -- and that number could be as low as three this year (five Big Ten teams are in this week's Bracketology, but only Maryland ranks among the top-16 seeds). Maryland has been carrying the postseason banner for the Big Ten over the last few seasons.
Now that drop-off is hurting the Terps. Sure, Brenda Frese probably under-scheduled given her talent, but the Big Ten hasn't given her team any opportunity to make up significant ground in the strength of schedule metric the way ACC and SEC teams typically do.
Only five Big Ten schools rank in the RPI top 50, and that includes Minnesota, which is 11-10 overall. Only Maryland and Ohio State have more than two wins against the top 50; the rest of the conference is a combined 12-57 against that same top 50.
Maryland might get some help and move up at least into the No. 2 seed line if other teams lose in the next month. But the Terps won't have much chance to help themselves because of the league's struggles. Their game at Ohio State on Feb. 20 will likely be their only one against a top-50 opponent the rest of the way.
Maryland absolutely looks much better than the country's ninth-best team, but the Terps' own conference just isn't helping them prove something new in the numbers to the committee.
Pac-12 focus
Largely due to results in the Pac-12, there was some shuffling in this week's bracket among the top-16 teams laid out by the committee. Stanford's staggering comeback on the road at Washington elevated the Cardinal a couple of spots to No. 10 overall in this week's evaluation; the Huskies fell two spots to No. 8. That meant shuffling in regional placement. Most notably, Washington lands in Bridgeport teamed with No. 1 overall seed UConn.
Arizona State drops out of the top 16 after three consecutive losses; DePaul replaces the Sun Devils as a host. That last spot seems like the one wide-open slot, but the Sun Devils will have to turn it around quickly to get back in the picture. That won't be easy with the Oregon schools headed to Tempe, Arizona, this weekend.