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          The Six Points: Carlton's horrific scoring woes; why Nick Daicos won't win the Brownlow

          • Jake Michaels, Senior WriterJun 6, 2023, 08:50 PM
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula One, basketball to boxing, and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.
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          Each week, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points from the AFL world.

          This week's Six Points feature the dire Blues and the club's inability to score, the reason Nick Daicos won't win the Brownlow Medal, a glowing endorsement of taggers and why more 50m penalties should be paid.

          1. Carlton's inability to kick a score is frighteningly bad

          For a team that boasts the last two Coleman Medal winners, Carlton's offence is downright embarrassing. There, I said it. The Blues are completely broken as a football team, culminating in a lack of scoring which has them not only a mile away from where a finals-bound team should be, but in the discussion for worst attack in the league.

          This year, the Blues have kicked just one more goal than the Hawks, and two more than the Kangaroos. They average 74 points per game -- ranking them 15th overall, only ahead of West Coast, North Melbourne and Hawthorn -- which is 10 points fewer than last year and even five fewer than in 2021 where they finished the season in 13th.

          But even that figure of 74 points is rather flattering and misleading given the Blues piled on 152 against the Eagles in Round 7. Remove that game and the club's points for number drops to an average of just 67 per game. If we go one step further and take out the other game against a cellar dweller (Round 4 vs. North Melbourne, when the Blues scored 107 points) it comes down to 62.9 per game, which would be tied-worst in the league with the Eagles, a team many believe might be the worst we've seen in a decade. Dire.

          The spread of goalkickers at Carlton is also cause for major concern. The Blues rank 16th for unique goal kickers this year (21) and average the second-fewest goal kickers per game (6.25), with only the Eagles faring worse (5.3).

          FUN FACT: Carlton has just six players who have kicked more than three goals this year. That's it. Their next opponent, Essendon, has 16! Even the Eagles and Hawks have 10, while the Kangaroos have nine.

          The Blues have also had the second-fewest goal assists this year, which points to a theory that they have relied on individual brilliance and talent as opposed to any recognisable of structure or tactical game plan.

          And as if that's not enough, Carlton has been the second-worst team in terms of score accuracy. Through 12 games they are kicking a major from just 42.9% of opportunities, 5.1% below the AFL average and 10.8% below the sharpshooting Cats. The number is even worse over the last month, with accuracy dropping to a league-low 33%.

          Ever since that ego boosting win against the abysmal Eagles, Carlton's scoring has trended in the wrong direction: 152 points, 74 points, 59 points, 57 points, 51 points and now 44 points. Only twice in history has a team's points for total dropped six weeks in succession. If this trend continues for another round, Voss won't have a job. It's as simple as that.

          2. Nick Daicos will have to buck a major trend to win the 2023 Brownlow Medal

          He's been the runaway Brownlow Medal favourite since Round 3, getting as short as $2.25 after his epic performance on Anzac Day, but is Collingwood youngster Nick Daicos actually going to take 'Charlie' home at the end of the home and away season?

          As brilliant as Daicos has been in his sophomore year -- averaging 33.5 disposals, 21 uncontested possessions and leading the competition in metres gained -- he simply doesn't fit the profile of a Brownlow winner, especially in recent times.

          READ: BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR

          So what's the profile? Inside midfielders who win their own ball at the contest. Here's a look at the last 10 winners and how each fared in-tight:

          Every one of the past 10 winners ranked top seven in the league for contested possessions, with nine of the 10 ranking in the top four. For clearances, only Ollie Wines failed to rank in the top 10, albeit just outside.

          Through 12 games, Daicos is averaging just 7.92 contested possessions and 2.5 clearances per game. Those numbers currently rank him equal-97th for contested possessions and equal-112th for clearances. That's not the formula for winning the league's best and fairest award.

          The other area of note is the age of recent Brownlow winners. Each of the last 10 winners have been aged between 24 and 29. The last real youngster to win the award was Chris Judd in 2004, who was 21 years and 12 days old on the night of the count. The only winner in the last 40 years who was yet to celebrate their 21st birthday when the medal was draped around their neck was Gavin Wanganeen in 1993.

          If Daicos does win it later this year, he'll be creating some serious history.

          3. Umpires must start paying more 50m penalties

          I totally understand that the vast majority of footy fans want to see fewer free kicks and 50m penalties paid by umpires, but stick with me on this one. I reckon I might be able to convince you.

          The particular action is something that's been bugging me and many footy fans for a few seasons now, and I'm convinced paying a 50m penalty would remove it from the game almost immediately.

          During the West Coast vs. Collingwood game on Saturday afternoon, Taylor Adams gave a free kick away at halfback when he chopped Tim Kelly's arms in a marking contest. The umpire blew his whistle immediately, yet Adams jumped on the ball, locked it in and refused to hand it over to Kelly. Six seconds elapsed on the game clock before the ball eventually made its way back to Kelly.

          No 50m penalty was paid. There was no warning given or 'hurry up' from any of the four field umpires.

          To be fair to Adams, I'm not singling him out. This action happens half a dozen times per game - I'm just not sure why nobody seems to be bothered or concerned by it.

          Not only does it disadvantage the team who won the free kick -- as the extra seconds allow the opposition defence to flood back -- but it wastes valuable game time. Umpires have no issue paying it when the ball doesn't go back to the correct player, so why not when the ball takes an eternity to go back?

          4. Adelaide's road struggles have been totally overblown

          The commentary around the Crows and their inability to win on the road has been more than unfair.

          On the surface, Adelaide's record of 1-4 away from Adelaide Oval isn't great, but they've only started as the bookmakers' favourite in one of those losses. They're not exactly dropping games they're expected to win. Did you have them beating the Cats at GMHBA Stadium or the Bulldogs at Mars Stadium?

          The other interesting point is that none of these road losses have come at venues where they would have to play at in a finals series. The Crows are well traveled so far in 2023 but, perhaps surprisingly, are yet to play a game in Melbourne.

          There's nothing major which stands out when analyzing the difference between Adelaide at home compared to outside South Australia. It's not as if one aspect of their game drops away dramatically, rather it's minor dips across the board.

          But that's not unusual.

          The majority of interstate teams struggle on the road. Even great teams. Think the dominate Eagles of the 2010s or, more recently, Chris Fagan's Lions.

          I believe the vast majority of Victorians totally underestimate the difficulty of regular interstate travel. Leaving home every second week for games isn't easy and seeing a 5-10% drop off -- which is the case with the Crows -- shouldn't be totally unexpected. It's completely understandable.

          Unfortunately for Adelaide, the travel doesn't get any easier in the second half of the year. Here's what's to come:

          ROUND 15: vs. Collingwood @ MCG
          ROUND 17: vs. Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
          ROUND 19: vs. Melbourne @ MCG
          ROUND 22: vs. Brisbane @ Gabba
          ROUND 24: vs. West Coast @ Optus Stadium

          5. Liam Shiels just gave the greatest advertisement for taggers we've seen all year

          Has there been a better first quarter of footy played than what Zach Merrett produced against the Kangaroos last Sunday afternoon?

          Merrett had all but banked the three Brownlow Medal votes by quarter-time after tallying 16 disposals (eight kicks and eight handballs) at 81% efficiency, six contested possessions, five clearances, three inside 50s and booting two goals. The Bombers were flying, too, up by 20 points and looking like running up a cricket score at Marvel Stadium.

          FUN FACT: Merrett's 16-disposal, two-goal first quarter was just the second time such numbers were recorded in a term. The only other player to achieve it was Daniel Kerr.

          But the momentum drastically shifted after the first change. The reason? North Melbourne interim coach Brett Ratten's move to send experienced midfielder Liam Shiels to the red-hot Merrett.

          The Bombers skipper still had plenty of influence on the game, but his impact was reduced significantly. No longer was he allowed to waltz out of the centre square unopposed, set up play off half back or run around the mark for uncontested handball receives.

          Essendon failed to kick a goal in the second quarter as the Kangaroos stormed back into the game. Despite holding a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter, they ultimately fell short by six points in an absolute nail-biter. Still, it was without question the club's best performance since Round 2, and much of it can be attributed to the role Shiels played in slowing down Merrett.

          The 'tagger' or 'cooler' role is wildly underutilized in the AFL, particularly given how effective it often is. This year we've seen Nick Daicos given acres of space to roam in, and each time it's been on offer he has used it to devastating effect. But it's not just Daicos, I'm always surprised with how little attention is put into some of the games top players, including Christian Petracca, Marcus Bontempelli and even Port Adelaide young gun Zak Butters. Coaches shouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger on such moves.

          6. Thank god for Thursday night footy, but why did it ever leave?

          I'm a sucker for Thursday night football, and here's two reasons why.

          Number one, it shortens the week. There's something about a game on a Thursday night which just feels very long weekendy. What's not to love about that?

          Number two, and something which I guess goes hand-in-hand with the first point, is that it spaces out the games. I'm always in favour of fewer time clashes and a Thursday night game always alleviates at least one of these, usually on a Saturday.

          Every year I ask myself why Thursday night football doesn't have a permanent slot on the AFL fixture. This year, we had Thursday night footy for the first five rounds and then nothing until this week. We now have games on Thursday every week until Round 19, then nothing again. I don't get it.

          Here's what we can look forward to on Thursday night over the coming weeks:

          ROUND 13: Sydney vs. St Kilda
          ROUND 14: Port Adelaide vs. Geelong
          ROUND 15: Geelong vs. Melbourne
          ROUND 16: Brisbane vs. Richmond
          ROUND 17: Richmond vs. Sydney
          ROUND 18: Sydney vs. Western Bulldogs

          Moving forward, the AFL and its broadcasters have to come to an agreement for Thursday night football to be played every single round. No exceptions.