Every year, we talk about how the AFL competition is tighter than ever. This year, I'm happy to refine that statement a little by adding the key words "at the top". And that, after all, is where it matters most.
It's certainly not the case across all 18 teams. Indeed, there's an argument the gap between the top couple of teams now and the likes of cellar-dwellers West Coast and North Melbourne is as large as the modern era has seen.
But in the eight? You could barely slide a sheet of rice paper between most of them. And if you ever needed that point driven home, last year's finals series did that pretty effectively. Of nine finals played, five were decided by seven points or less, eight of nine by 24 points or less. It was ridiculously thrilling. And as a guide to 2024 prospects? Well, toss a coin.
So which teams can win the 2024 AFL premiership? And no, not just theoretically. We're keeping it real here. I mean when all the blood, sweat and tears have been expended, the lead-ups done, luck and fate and all those other intangibles are factored in. OK, here goes.
I've excluded two from last year's top eight and have no team from outside it, either. The latter isn't a surprise. The former probably won't surprise St Kilda fans and will perhaps enrage supporters of Port Adelaide, which did finish the regular season top four.
The Power lost me as a flag possibility with their meek straight sets exit from last year's finals. That's five losses from their last seven finals, and that to me says something is amiss with this team psychologically. I'm not totally convinced by their "ins", either.
But we in the punditry business are born to make fools of ourselves. Or very occasionally make a big call which comes off. So here's my first of the new season, ranking (in order) of the teams I reckon can GENUINELY win the 2024 flag.
Melbourne
Culture? Shmulture. Look, I'm not saying the Clayton Oliver saga or the Joel Smith dramas were great for the club, but here's the thing. If it's so poisonous, has it really impacted on the field? Yes, the Demons have now made two straight sets exits from the finals. They also lost their two finals last year by seven points (with 32 more forward entries) and two points (kicking 9.17). Do you seriously think the rotten culture narrative would be getting the same exposure it has had Melbourne won either of those games or appeared in another Grand Final? I doubt it.
And storylines aside, for me the Demons still have the best-equipped list individually in the competition, even after the shock retirement of Angus Brayshaw. There's the midfield stars (Petracca, Oliver, Viney), supreme backmen (May, Lever). And a multi-pronged forward set-up which can better still via the improvement of the very promising Jacob Van Rooyen and the addition of Shane McAdam and Jack Billings. Those who depend on off-field drama for their bread and butter would be disappointed, but I still think Melbourne is the team to beat.
Brisbane
The Lions' developmental curve continues to inch closer to that elusive flag, literally a kick away as of last September. Can Chris Fagan's team get better again? Why not? Their previously at-times questionable backline improved its ranking from 10th to sixth in 2023, and now has talented former Crow Tom Doedee in the mix. A multi-pronged attack had seven players who kicked 20 goals or more. And the midfield mix of names such as Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry and Dayne Zorko oozes class.
The Gabba, where Brisbane went 13-0 last year, remains a huge advantage, and the increased maturity and mental toughness is underlined by the Lions having now won four of their past six finals after having lost five of the previous six. Yes, the MCG record superficially still looks dismal (one win from the last 16 visits) but three of the last five losses there have been by a total of just 12 points. It's taken five years of incremental improvement, but Brisbane is so close to the prize now it has to be a massive chance again.
Sydney
There's a bit of a bandwagon building around Sydney in 2024. You can count me in. But in fairness, I've been pumping up the Swans since tipping them against the odds to make the eight in 2021. Last season was certainly a slide from a Grand Final the previous year, but John Longmire's side really did find its mojo in the last part of 2023, and lost its elimination final by just six points after poor conversion. It has the best group of younger players in the AFL and is in a sweet spot in terms of list. The Swans are only mid-table for age but ranked fifth for games experience, and Errol Gulden, Nick Blakey, James Rowbottom, and Chad Warner all finished top five in the best and fairest, with Blakey, turning 24 this week, the oldest.
There's a huge potential boost in the importing of Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams, who'll allow those previously mentioned off the chain a little more, while neither should the potential of a pair of premiership players in Joel Hamling and James Jordon to add plenty be forgotten. Plenty of potential now for Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean and Joel Amartey to shine up forward with a "Franklin-less" set-up. And as ever under Longmire, you just know this team will be coached with a cool head. Big chance for mine.
Collingwood
For a second year, the reigning AFL premier is also the competition's oldest and most experienced list. Surprisingly, the Pies' average age is even older than was Geelong's last year. The big difference, however, is the Pies' oldest heads aren't as pivotal as the Cats' oldies were; four of the top six in last year's best and fairest (the Daicos brothers, Brayden Maynard and Isaac Quaynor) are mid-20s or younger. Pre-season from all reports has sparkled. Now it's primarily about hunger, because we know Collingwood measures up on all other counts, most obviously relentless defensive and tackling pressure and daring ball movement. Oh, and that ridiculous ability in tight finishes, three finals last year won by a kick and the record over two seasons 17-4 in games decided by single-figure margins.
They're skillful and exciting, the Pies, tough, and resilient, and of course under Craig McRae, brilliantly coached. And perhaps in a side chasing back-to-back, the coach's capacity to keep it "real" and egos in check might prove Collingwood's greatest asset in 2024.
GWS
The Giants were 15th with four wins halfway through 2023. They finished two points shy of a Grand Final berth and with debutant coach Adam Kingsley taking out the AFL Coaches Association "Coach of the Year" gong. That's some sort of rapid improvement. And clearly huge testament to the effectiveness of Kinglsey's system once his new charges became familiar enough with the playbook. As is the fact GWS got so close despite ranking only mid-table for attack and defence and lower half for clearances, contested ball and forward entries. There's your massive scope for improvement - which was beginning to materialise anyway the longer 2023 went on.
The defence is a tight-knit stingy unit led by keys Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley and the damaging ball use of Lachie Whitfield, and the midfield is a terrific mix of silk, toughness and pure ball-winning ability via Tom Green, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio. The forward 50 is where GWS can most improve its rating, but to that end the 2023 of Jesse Hogan was encouraging, and the emergence of either Jake Riccardi or Aaron Cadman this season would be just added support peerless All-Australian skipper Toby Greene needs.
Carlton
I do still have a few reservations about the Blues, but you can't argue that the version which finished 2023 was a far, far more dangerous proposition than that which sat 15th with just four wins 13 rounds into the season. And it did at one stage lead Brisbane by goals in a Gabba preliminary final.
There's no doubt Carlton's best 22 has class to spare in all parts of the ground. The defence ranked fourth, and is a top-notch unit likely to be strengthened further by the return of rebounder Zac Williams. The midfield group is as solid as there is, Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh, Blake Acres and George Hewett in 2023 giving Carlton rankings of first, second and third respectively for contested possessions, disposals and clearances. The cream on top last year came with the forward division's starting to convert, and that will be a key again, not just in the shape of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, but as much about the ability of smalls like Jack Martin, Jesse Motlop, Matt Owies and Lachie Fogarty to exert defensive pressure. And while the injury-plagued Orazio Fantasia is a big "if", he could make a big difference, too. I do think the Blues' best is good enough.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at Footyology.