The 2024 AFL season is just around the corner, and with fans and players getting a glimpse of new players, old players, veteran coaches, and newbies, it's time to look at ESPN's coaching pressure power rankings heading into the season.
From considering last years results, to expectations, time in the job, and what needs to happen this season; we've looked at all 18 coaches to see who should get comfy, who should be on notice, and who is really under the pump.
Note: We've ordered this so that the safest coaches are at the top of the rankings, and the most under pressure coaches are at the bottom.
Safe as houses
18. Craig McRae
Is it boring to have the premiership coach as 'least under pressure'? Sure, but it's true. McRae has been a revelation at Collingwood, and has helped usher in a new era of success both on and off the field. Remember, barely more than two years ago the mess the Pies were in? The 'Do Better' report, Eddie McGuire standing down, Nathan Buckley departing - finishing 17th in 2021 seems like a distant memory.
Not only does McRae have the buy-in of the players, fans, and administrators, he has the Magpies playing exceptional footy that is good to watch. As far as coaches go, he's the safest of the lot, and by some distance, and Collingwood has him until at least the end of the 2026 season - it almost seems not long enough!
17. Damien Hardwick
When you're brought in on a six-year contract for a reported one million dollars per year, you're going to be given a lot of rope, but Hardwick is more ambitious than that. He's already stated most of his side's next premiership is on the list, and his chairman Bob East has declared the Suns want to win a flag by 2026 - fair to say there's expectation attached to this gig for the Richmond three-time premiership-winning coach.
Obviously the expectations are high this season, but looking at his list, and what Gold Coast managed to acquire through its draft hand (read: academy prospects), finals is looking likely, and playing in September will only take the pressure off Hardwick even more.
16. Adam Kingsley
Few pundits had the Giants making the finals in Kingsley's first season, and even fewer had them making a preliminary final - much less falling short by a solitary point against eventual premiers Collingwood in front of 97,000 fans.
Kingsley was a revelation for the Giants, who showed early in the season the sort of football which propelled Richmond to three flags in four years - an emphasis on carrying the ball in waves and moving it quickly. It worked, and while the Giants took a few months to get going, Kingsley led his side from 15th at Round 12 to the final four in 2023, with an air of optimism around the future to boot.
15. Adem Yze
The post-Damien Hardwick era is upon the Tigers, and it was Yze who charmed the club's board to take over the post. Richmond is in a fascinating period of transition, with veterans Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt departing, but others like Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, and Tom Lynch (who is, yes, 31!) kicking on. The issue for the Tigers is whether there's star power coming through the younger ranks, because right now it seems top-heavy in favour of the vets.
Yze has time on his side, and has promised fans an exciting brand of footy. With a fit Lynch returning to the fold, there's room for some cautious optimism, but even a 'disappointing' year won't be enough for the Tigers to get nervous about this appointment.
14. Sam Mitchell
Now into his third season as Hawthorn coach under the succession plan which resulted in Alastair Clarkson leaving the club, Mitchell is still sitting pretty. The Hawks were never going to blink, or get nervous in the early years of this list build, and things seem to be progressing well.
The Hawks won seven games in 2023 (admittedly down from eight in 2024), but have avoided, for the most part, bottoming out like North Melbourne and West Coast. The list isn't ready for finals -- most analysts and fans would tell you that -- but further regression would begin to raise eyebrows. Eight or more wins should be the aim, and considering the Hawks notched some impressive scalps last season (including against Brisbane and Collingwood), they should be able to compete with most clubs on any given day. A flurry of injuries in the preseason, too, might weirdly help his calls for patience and time.
Sitting comfortably
13. Chris Fagan
Oh, so close! Yet again, the Lions, one of the best teams all year, just fell short at the final hurdle to Collingwood, and although technically another year of heartbreak, it was a step forward for Chris Fagan's team. What more can he do? He's made September in each of the past five seasons, and made at least the prelim in the past two seasons.
Well, the Lions still have struggles at the MCG. They lost all three there last season, and have just one win from the past 16 visits (and 1-13 under Fagan). Call it an overblown curse, call it a meaningless stat - if they start winning there, it all goes away. And if they start winning there, well, they're probably flag favourites. Come on, Fages, solve the puzzle.
12. Alastair Clarkson
Given Clarkson wasn't at the helm for most of 2023, after he took indefinite mental health leave on the back of the Hawthorn racism investigation, 2024 is almost a clean slate. The reality is, he's contracted through 2027 and is the club's highest-profile signing in a long, long time.
But it's not to say he's infallible; the list has gone through significant change in the past two years, and there's a lot of young talent through the door. If there's a lack of improvement, questions will inevitably be asked of a 'superstar coach' on a very, very good wicket.
11. Michael Voss
Voss rode a rollercoaster of emotions in 2023. From being under the pump with the Blues sitting in the bottom four at Round 15, to winning two heart-stopping finals on the way to a last four berth, the Carlton coach was both in 'sack him' and 'coach of the year' talks in the same season.
Voss' late-season run and two finals win has bought him enough goodwill with Blues fans, but this is Carlton we're talking about -- not a club usually known for its patience and understanding. If the Blues find themselves in the lower reaches of the ladder again, the natives will get restless, and Voss might yet again come under pressure, Having said that, a new two-year extension has been handed down, and the club won't be pulling the trigger in 2024.
10. Ross Lyon
Made finals in his first season in charge? Check. Now Lyon just needs to keep the momentum going. He's able to squeeze the most out the groups he coaches, and while the Saints don't have one of the most elite lists in terms of pure talent, there are stars across the board. Consistency is probably another key for the Saints, who went win-loss-win-loss between Rounds 4 and 14, while losses to lower ranked teams Gold Coast, Hawthorn, and Adelaide also stung.
In reality, he was brought back to the Saints for the long term, so Lyon is safe.
9. Brad Scott
The Bombers went into the bye 8-5 but missed finals again in 2023, in Scott's first year in charge. In the offseason, they've improved the list with some sage additions in Ben McKay and Jade Gresham. Scott will be under pressure to produce a September berth; after all, he was brought in for his ability to get the most of this team (just look at his Kangaroos who made consecutive prelims in 2014 and 2015).
He's contracted through 2026, but as we know with Essendon, contracts don't mean a lot, just ask Ben Rutten, who was under contract when he was sacked in 2022.
8. John Longmire
Now in his 14th season in charge at Sydney, Longmire isn't under any significant pressure, but a first-round finals exit a year after making the Grand Final wasn't ideal in 2023.
What have the Swans got in their back pocket? They've acquire Taylor Adams and Brodie Grundy in an effort to bolster the midfield, and their talented youngsters should only continue to get better. Longmire would want to have a strong season in order to keep the critics off his back -- especially given he has under him one of the most highly-touted coaches-in-waiting in Dean Cox.
Wouldn't want to be underperforming
7. Chris Scott
Yes, he's contracted through 2026, but Scott is also in charge of a Geelong in a very interesting period of transition. Will he see out the whole contract? He remains adamant. What's a pass mark for the Cats this year? Finals -- one last shot at glory with the ageing veterans? Or is it time for the next generation to come up and take their spots? Or a mix of both?
It'll be hard to judge Scott's performance this year, but as the header says, he wouldn't want to be underperforming, lest calls for an 'amicable split' between coach and club start materialising.
6. Simon Goodwin
A premiership bought a lot of goodwill for Goodwin, but two 'straight sets' exits from finals in two years undoes a fair bit. Simply put, the Demons have not made the most of a list which should really have been to at least one more Grand Final. A disappointing year on the field in 2023 was underlined by a number of off-field issues for the Demons as well, from Clayton Oliver's hospital and health battles, to Joel Smith's positive cocaine test, and even accusations levelled at Goodwin himself for his conduct.
Goodwin is signed through 2026, but really needs a good -- and settled -- year to remind fans and critics that he is the man to squeeze the most out of this talented group he's assembled. If things continue to unravel, who knows what might happen.
5. Matthew Nicks
Coming into his fifth year now as Crows coach, Nicks has been afforded patience by the club and its fans after the club began a slow build following the collapse after the 2017 Grand Final loss. Nicks is only contracted until the end of this year (2024), but the Crows are keen to lock in a deal sooner rather than later. But, for how long?
Adelaide probably should have made finals last year (who can forget the Ben Keays goal that was called a behind) and Nicks would be under significantly less pressure, but the reality is, it's been four years with just incremental improvements, in terms of ladder position (18th, 15th, 14th, 10th). He'd want a strong start to guarantee himself maybe an extra year on any extension, but if he enters the season without a deal, and the Crows start poorly, then he's well and truly under the pump.
Blowtorch is ready...
4. Luke Beveridge
Perhaps the only reason Bevo isn't higher is he's contracted until at least the end of 2025. But make no mistake, this is a big year for Bevo and the Dogs, who last year missed finals for the first time since 2018. It's a bit of a head-scratcher, too; the talent on the list is unbelievable, with superstars across just about every line. What the Bulldogs have done for this season is shuffle the pieces around Beveridge to try and get some fresh looks at the processes -- whether that works remains to be seen.
What we do know is Beveridge was under pressure last year and missed the cut, finishing 9th. Another year without finals with a list featuring names like Bontempelli, Naughton, Liberatore, English et al. could intensify the heat on the now 10th-year coach.
3. Justin Longmuir
Come back to us one month into season 2024 and Longmuir could top this list. After making and losing a semifinal to Collingwood in 2022, things at Fremantle just haven't seemed .. right. Mass player exodus has plagued the Dockers since that finals series, with best-22 players Adam Cerra, Rory Lobb, Griffin Logue, Liam Henry, and Lachie Schulz among others to fly the coop. It seems Longmuir hasn't quite struck the balance in maintaining key relationships, having admitted in the past he could have done more to keep some of the players who left, but it's too late -- and footy moves quickly.
Coming into his fifth year now, he has just that one finals berth in 2022, having finished 12th, 11th, 5th, and 14th in his four seasons at the helm. Fans will rightly be a little miffed is he's extended beyond this season without significant improvement and a leap out of the doldrums.
2. Adam Simpson
Simpson is signed until the end of this season, but he and his troops are going to have to show a lot more in 2024 if he's to remain in the top job at season's end. West Coast's board resisted calls to sack Simpson last year throughout what really was a diabolical campaign, but the reality is, if you don't have the cattle on the park (or on the list), there's not a lot you can do.
Simpson has maintained he's keen to be the man to take West Coast up the ladder again, but with the list arguably now at its 'bottom', it wouldn't take much for the hierarchy to determine a change and a fresh face is needed.
1. Ken Hinkley
Rightly or wrongly, Hinkley is again the man under the most pressure in 2024. After leading Port Adelaide to a 13-game winning streak midway through last season, the Power failed to fire in finals, bowing out in straight sets with nothing to show for what really was a disappointing end to the year.
Hinkley is possibly the league's most polarising coach. There are clubs who would give almost anything for a coach to have their side competing consistently; he's led Port to finals in six of his 11 seasons at the helm including three of the past four. Has he had the best or second best list in the competition in any of those years? Probably not. But that won't stop the critics from circling; after all, there were calls of his position being 'untenable' after two losses to start 2023.
If Port's in the bottom half of the ladder at the bye, there'll be serious tension at Alberton.