Amid the whirlwind of twists and turns this season, an inevitable finals showdown is set between the UP Fighting Maroons and the DLSU Green Archers, two powerhouses destined to clash for UAAP supremacy.
From Season 86's epic three-game finals series to another thrilling preseason encounter and the aggressive recruitment of new talent, both UP and DLSU have been on a collision course. Defending champions DLSU relied on their dominant frontcourt led by reigning UAAP MVP Kevin Quiambao and Mythical Five member Mike Phillips. UP leaned on the leadership and scoring prowess of senior JD Cagulangan, backed by their trademark stingy defense, which has carried them to a remarkable fourth consecutive finals appearance.
Even though DLSU swept the eliminations in convincing fashion, the finals present a different stage altogether. Will UP's resilience and defensive tenacity be enough to reverse their fortunes or will DLSU's consistency cement their reign as champions?
Let's check out how some storylines that might define their finals series
Can UP take advantage of DLSU's turnovers?
DLSU's system thrives on high-paced play, evidenced by their second best 9.85 possessions spent in transition, which can be a style that leads to sloppy ball handling, especially under relentless pressure. UP's defense, anchored by its aggressive traps and quick perimeter rotations, could exploit these live-ball turnovers even more. Averaging the most turnovers per game in the UAAP at 18.8, DLSU's tendency to gamble on offensive plays leaves them vulnerable to UP's disruptive defensive schemes.
For the Fighting Maroons, the ability to force turnovers is vital to their offense. As a squad that struggles to generate efficient scoring in half-court sets, UP thrives in transition. These opportunities allow them to attack before DLSU's defense sets up, often catching defenders off guard. According to InStat, UP spends the largest portion of their offensive possessions on fastbreaks (13.3%) and ranks fourth in the league in points per possession (PPP) at 0.81. This makes forcing turnovers not just a strategic advantage but a necessity for their offensive rhythm.
Key players like Janjan Felicilda, Gerry Abadiano, and Reyland Torres will be instrumental, as they aim to have better showings on offense in this series. Their ability to pressure the ball, jump passing lanes, and recover quickly will determine how effectively UP can capitalize on DLSU's mistakes. In their two matchups in the eliminations, they were able to force DLSU starting point guard Joshua David to three turnovers per game and presumptive back-to-back MVP Kevin Quiambao to 1.5 turnovers. UP will need apply that pressure to both primary ball handlers to turn the tides in the finals.
X-factor for UP: Harold Alarcon
Alarcon's season has been a roller coaster in the scoring department, which has caused his playing time to fluctuate. That's why his performance in the past two games has been a welcome sight for UP. Averaging 24.5 points, Alarcon exploded for a career-high 33 points against UE and delivered a crucial second-half performance in the Final Four against UST, steering the Fighting Maroons to the finals -- a definite confidence booster for him as they try to recapture the title.
"Before 'yung game namin versus UE, medyo naging stagnant ako sa scoring and 'di ako nagpapakita ng maayos. Pero going into the finals, laking tulong nito sa mindset ko moving forward," Alarcon said about his recent scoring performances.
For the season, Alarcon has posted respectable numbers of 10.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on an efficient 57.6 TS%. However, these contributions came in just 18 minutes per game -- a figure likely to increase heading into the championship series. With UP's half-court offense heavily reliant on JD Cagulangan, Alarcon's offensive expertise will be vital in keeping DLSU's defense on its toes.
According to InStat, Alarcon thrives in secondary attacks, excelling when he catches the ball and either drives to the basket or shoots immediately. He averages an impressive 0.95 PPP on catch-and-drives and a full point per catch-and-shoot possession. This is why he will be the x-factor for their series against DLSU, as his ability to attack in transition and secondary plays could exploit gaps in DLSU's defensive schemes and provide the consistent scoring UP desperately needs.
Riding the coattails of Kevin Quiambao
To say that DLSU will rely heavily on Quiambao's offensive skill set might be an understatement. Quiambao has consistently proven himself as one of the most outstanding scorers in the amateur ranks, currently leading the league in points per game. Beyond scoring, his well-rounded game makes him a unique weapon for DLSU. Whether facilitating, rebounding, or anchoring the offense, Quiambao's versatility has been evident throughout his collegiate career and beyond. In fact, his ability to impact games on multiple fronts was on full display in their first meeting UP this season, where he recorded a triple-double of 20-10-10.
Quiambao's basketball IQ and court vision elevate DLSU's offensive ceiling, allowing him to exploit mismatches and create opportunities for his teammates. No wonder they have been the best 3-point shooting team in the UAAP at 29.9%, with most of them feeding off the attention Quiambao has garnered. Whether operating from the post, shooting from the perimeter, or orchestrating plays as a secondary facilitator, he has the tools to keep UP's defense guessing. With UP's aggressive defensive schemes, Quiambao's ability to read and counter defensive traps will be crucial. His knack for finding open shooters or slashing teammates could punish UP for overcommitting, making him the linchpin of DLSU's attack.
The key to this season's dominance lies in Quiambao's improved on-ball skills and a refined offensive role. While catch-and-shoot opportunities remain his most utilized playtype, as per InStat, the addition of hand-offs and scoring off off-ball screens has elevated his game to new heights. He has been highly efficient in these areas, averaging 1.1 PPP on hand-offs and 1.2 PPP when coming off screens, showcasing his adaptability and expanded scoring arsenal.
His prowess doesn't stop in half-court sets; he thrives in transition as both a play initiator and a finisher. Generating an impressive 1.03 PPP in transition situations, he seamlessly shifts from creating opportunities for teammates to finishing plays himself. With his diverse offensive arsenal and ability to impact the game in multiple ways, Quiambao has solidified himself as the driving force behind DLSU's success, proving that his skill set is one of the most dynamic in the league.
X-factor for DLSU: Joshua David
After losing their starting backcourt of Evan Nelle and Mark Nonoy, there were doubts that DLSU's guard play would become their weak point. This was then quickly silenced by Joshua David, demonstrating poise, stability, and maturity in stepping up as the primary ball handler for the UAAP's top team. His ability to run the offense effectively and make smart decisions under pressure has been instrumental in maintaining DLSU's high level of play, proving that their backcourt remained in capable hands for this season.
David's averages may not be eye-popping at first glance -- 6.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 43 TS% -- but they reflect a player who contributes across multiple facets of the game. His impact goes beyond the stat sheet, as he serves as the steadying force for DLSU's offense, ensuring that the team operates with fluidity and composure, even in high-pressure situations.
What sets David apart is his decision-making and defensive tenacity. While not a high-volume scorer, he consistently makes the right reads, finding open teammates or taking advantage of driving lanes when defenses overcommit. Defensively, his ability to disrupt opposing guards and grab crucial rebounds has added a layer of toughness to DLSU's backcourt.
Prediction: DLSU in 3