OAKLAND, Calif. -- With roughly two minutes left in the second quarter, we received a lesson in why no series is 100 percent guaranteed. After Stephen Curry, who'd been casually crushing the Houston Rockets, put on a dribbling display, he missed a push shot. He then turned to get back on defense before his ankle was ready for the journey.
How bad is it? It's an ankle sprain, of which Curry's had a few. He moved poorly on the ankle in his short third-quarter stint but lacked a noticeable limp after the game. When media entered the locker room, the ankle wasn't heavily swollen upon exiting an ice bath.
Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr remains cautious based on what he saw.
"As far as [Game 2 on] Monday, I'd say say Steph is questionable," the coach said. There wasn’t a lot of hemming or hawing to get there. Kerr had been the barrier against Curry's return to game action after Curry lobbied multiple assistants to sway his coach.
That amicable split illustrates something. Curry, for all the sway he could theoretically wield, pleads with the coach. The superstar doesn't demand -- he pleads. And Kerr doesn't accede to his superstar's wishes, knowing his job is to take the long view on his superstar's behalf. It's a reminder that a component of Curry's success is his willingness to be coached. This isn't to say there's inherent virtue in respecting authority. It's just that a man must delegate certain powers because he lacks the bandwidth to decide everything. Curry has largely focused on basketball and put his trust in others.
Now, those others must make some choices. Curry will be evaluated and re-evaluated, but the smart money is on the decision lingering until Monday evening. Why? Because there's a strategic advantage in Houston not knowing Curry's status until the last possible moment. Curry has made it clear he expects to play, but he hedges a bit based on what the next two days might tell him.
His full quote on the prognosis was as follows: "Right now, don't see a scenario where I'll be out. Obviously if it's not right and I'm at risk of further injury or what not, that's the only thing that we'll have to worry about. Pain tolerance and all that stuff, I kind of know what I can deal with on the court. But you don't want anything more serious to happen, favoring an ankle or what not. So that's what we'll kind of pay attention to the next two days."
If playing Monday compromises his health in any way, the Warriors should probably sit him. As Kerr put it, "He's a competitor. He wants to play. But we're not going to let him play if there's any risk of making it worse. Obviously we're hoping that we're going to be in the playoffs for the next couple of months."
The Warriors were plus-28 in Curry's 20 minutes and minus-2 otherwise. Of course, a good chunk of that was during garbage time, which saw action from players who'd fallen from the rotation. It's obviously suboptimal, but the Warriors can beat the Rockets sans Curry. Houston looks out of sorts, its players frequently yelling at one another during the blowout. More to the point, the Warriors already did it this season, in Houston, when Curry sat out because of a shin bruise.
In that game, the Warriors feasted on their opponent's lack of defensive awareness, slicing the Rockets with back cuts and simply jogging past them in transition. There's no guarantee of a similarly insipid Houston performance in a playoff game but such an effort might be more the rule than the exception. If Curry misses Game 2, expect to see a lot Draymond Green parked in the post, waiting for opportunistic cutters. That's the formula that carried them to victory back in December, the last time they were down an MVP.
The subtext of this choice is whether this is a "real" playoff game or just one in technicality. As in, not all postseason games are created equal. If the Warriors were facing the Spurs in the Western Conference finals, Curry probably would be a lock to participate. The Rockets, with all their issues, and with the Warriors' running dominance of them, probably don't command such urgency.
Golden State will say all the right things about Houston, but the Warriors have played them plenty, watched the film and come to certain conclusions. Their strategy (back cuts and back screens, aimed at unaware defenders) tells a story. If it means guarding their MVP from risk, the Warriors will risk a game.