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Predicting Blue Jays' season record

Toronto catcher Russell Martin is regarded as one of the top pitch framers in the major leagues. AP Photo/the Canadian Press, Nathan Denette

ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.

Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays

Reason for optimism: It has taken a couple of years of personnel adjustments, but finally the Blue Jays have a roster set to play October baseball.

Reason for pessimism: Even if the Toronto offense leads the majors in home runs, there is no guarantee it can carry the pitching staff into October.

It has been two years since the Blue Jays made a big splash in the free-agent market, landing Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and reigning National League Cy Young Award R.A. Dickey (among others) before the 2013 season. For their efforts, and a greater than 50 percent increase in payroll from 2012 to 2014, the Blue Jays won 157 games (10 games under .500) -- or just three more than they did the two seasons prior to 2012.

Last year, the Blue Jays teased their fans with a blazing first third of the season.