ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism. Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Chicago Cubs.
Reason for optimism: Forget "Back to the Future." When Jorge Soler, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant hit back-to-back-to-back home runs in a game this spring, no one noticed the ice and snow in Chicago.
Reason for pessimism: Top prospects often take time to develop, the pitching staff has some holes ... ah, skip it. All Cubs fans are wearing a smile right now.
The Cubs total wins market last spring stands as a perfect example of the importance of price. The Cubs were priced to win 69.5 games (lowest in the National League), which seemed an absurdly low price given the presence of Jeff Samardzija, a solid staff, still-peaking Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, etc., and a bevy of players in the minor leagues potentially joining the team in season.
Everything worked against that over play.
Despite outstanding starting pitching the first half of the year, the Cubs suffered from terrible cluster and Pythagorean luck, posting just 35 wins at the midway point despite underlying peripherals that suggested above-.500 play; still, the pace was for 70 wins. Of course, from that point on, the Cubs traded away Samardzija, Jason Hammel and other parts in an apparent attempt to tank the season. Despite all the bad luck and the jettisoned talent, the Cubs still put together a 73-win season, thanks in no small part to the contributions of Soler.