Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS records:
Fortenbaugh 1-4 (8-8 on season)
Youmans 3-2 (12-4)
Kezirian 1-1 (7-5)
Bearman 1-1 (3-3-1)
Clay 1-1 (4-3)
Johnson 2-1 (8-12)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. games
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Youmans: Whether using analytics or the eye test, it was tough to justify the Ravens opening as four-point road favorites. After bullying the league's two weakest teams, Baltimore finally faced legit competition and got pushed around by Kansas City and Cleveland. The media propped up quarterback Lamar Jackson as an MVP candidate, but that hype was as phony as the Baltimore defense. The Ravens were lit up through the air by Kyler Murray (349 yards), Patrick Mahomes (374) and Baker Mayfield (342), and their run defense was exposed by the Browns. The Steelers' initial six-point dropoff from Ben Roethlisberger to Mason Rudolph was an overreaction, as Big Ben was playing poorly before his injury. Pittsburgh has managed to cover its past two games, with Rudolph completing 24 of 28 passes in a 27-3 victory over the Bengals on Monday. The Steelers have several flaws, and the Ravens do rate as the better team, but Baltimore's edge is slight and the line, at more than a field goal, is inflated.