Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (5-1 last week, 19-25-1 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (3-3, 30-48-1), Anita Marks (8-9, 68-78-2), Preston Johnson (1-0, 13-19), Mike Clay (0-0, 15-10) and Tyler Fulghum (10-14, 56-67-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (0-3, 25-19), Seth Walder (4-1, 46-25) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-2, 34-39-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from the weekend's slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Sunday's 8:20 pm. ET game
Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 44) at New York Giants
Marks: Giants quarterback Daniel Jones already had a bad hamstring, and now has an ankle injury on the opposite leg. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has COVID and will not be calling plays this week against the Browns. I don't anticipate Jones will play Sunday night, meaning Colt McCoy will start, with Freddie Kitchens in his ear. On defense, Giants cornerback James Bradberry is also out with COVID -- Bradberry is one of the league's best corners, and arguably the best player on the Giants' defense. The Browns are dealing with a number of injuries too, but the Giants' absences are more impactful.
Pick: Browns -6.5
Saturday's games
Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 49.5) at Denver Broncos
Final: Bills 48, Broncos 19
Schatz: The Denver offense has perked up a bit the past two weeks, but a longer-term sample is always a better guide than just one or two games. Even if we take out the Kendall Hinton game, Denver's weighted DVOA on offense is 28th in the NFL. Buffalo's offense ranks seventh. That's a big gap. With the Bills' defense improving over the past few weeks, our weighted DVOA ratings also now have Buffalo as the better team on that side of the ball, 13th compared to 17th for Denver. The Broncos' defense has been a little better at home, but when we take out the Hinton game, the Broncos' offense has exactly the same rating at home as it does on the road this season.
Pick: Bills -6.5
Fulghum: This looks like a letdown spot for Buffalo. The Bills are coming off big wins over the 49ers and Steelers, and next week they face the Patriots on Monday night -- a game that could all but sew up the AFC East. Denver is always a difficult place to travel to, and while the Broncos' defense is hurting, the offense is getting healthy and starting to hit stride. I trust coach Vic Fangio's scheme against any quarterback, and if Drew Lock can limit his mistakes, Denver can keep this game close and maybe even pull off the upset.
Pick: Broncos +6.5
Marks: The Bills are clicking on all cylinders, and catching the Broncos at the right time, considering Denver's secondary will be missing four players. John Brown came off IR this week but is not expected to play, which opens the door for both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to strut their stuff for another week.
Pick: Bills -.5 in teaser with Panthers +14.5; Beasley over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 51.5)
Final: Packers 24, Panthers 16
Bearman: I firmly believe the Packers will win this one, but recent results leave me very skittish on laying more than a touchdown with them. While comfortably ahead in most games, they let the Lions get within a TD last weekend to cover, did the same vs. the Eagles the previous week before Aaron Jones broke a long TD in closing seconds, blew a huge lead in a loss vs. Indy and barely held on vs. lowly Jacksonville. What am I trying to say? The Packers win but let teams hang around, which screams teaser. Add in a Panthers team that continues to play hard despite being out of the race and you likely have a game settled by one score. Why not take the 8.5? The Packers have the ability to make any game a blowout, but just haven't.
Pick: Packers -2.5 in teaser with Colts -1
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2, 41.5)
Fortenbaugh: The most recent rookie quarterback to defeat Bill Belichick was Russell Wilson, way back in 2012. Since that time, rookie QBs are 0-11. Go back two weeks for the latest example, with Justin Herbert averaging a pathetic 3.9 yards per attempt plus two interceptions in a 45-0 defeat. New England has had 10 days to get ready for this game, and while Miami's defense has been excellent against the pass this season, that's not what the Patriots are looking to do. New England wants to run the ball, and Miami ranks 22nd against the run. This one should be ugly, but I like the Patriots to deal a blow to the Dolphins' playoff hopes.
Pick: Patriots +2
Bearman: As much as I would love to take Miami here, with a chance to eliminate the Patriots from the postseason, all you have to do is look at Joe's stat above with rookie QBs vs. Belichick to not bet Miami. However, it does lead me to the under. Miami's offense under Tua Tagovailoa is averaging only 288 yards a game, relying on short fields, an opportunistic defense and great special teams. It has gotten better the past two games vs. subpar Kansas City and Cincinnati defenses, but there will be growing pains, ones the best coach in football knows how to exploit. Plus, the Dolphins have shown that if they jump out to a lead, they get very conservative with playcalling. In the three games prior to the Chiefs loss, the totals all finished under 35. The Dolphins have suffered a rash of injuries at key offensive positions but hope to have DeVante Parker, Matt Breida, Jakeem Grant and Mike Gesicki back on the field.
Meanwhile, the Patriots' offense seems to be going backward. The offense has recorded 220, 291 and 179 total yards the past three games. Sure, New England scored 45 vs. the Chargers, but that was due to two special-teams TDs and some poor Chargers offense.
In the first Patriots-Dolphins meeting in Week 1, the teams totaled 32 points, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and healthy WRs and RBs for Miami. I expect a similar low-scoring game but with Miami coming out ahead 20-17 -- too close to lay the points but low enough for the total.
Pick: Under 41.5
Walder I think it would shock most people that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) considers the Patriots a better team than the Dolphins going forward. Part of that is the prior (even at this late stage of the season), as New England ranked 10th in the preseason and Miami 28th.
If we drop the prior and look at efficiencies -- expected points added per play, with garbage time downweighted -- Miami has been the better team by a decent margin. But if we break it down by unit, the Dolphins rank 21st in offensive efficiency, seventh in defensive efficiency and second in special-teams efficiency. Offense is the most stable of those three, followed by defense. That suggests worse performance going forward than they've had. While it's true there was a quarterback change in the middle of the season in Miami, Fitzpatrick's 74.5 QBR vastly outpaces Tagovailoa's 57.3.
Pick: Patriots +2
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 45) at Dallas Cowboys
Kezirian: This comes down to a situational matchup, and I just like 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan much more than Cowboys counterpart Mike McCarthy. I fully expect the 49ers to run all over Dallas. The Cowboys are dead last in rushing defense, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. San Francisco has not been as dynamic on the ground this season, but Shanahan is fully aware of the limitations of both his quarterback and the Dallas defense. He will keep Nick Mullens in check and rely on his own defense, which is getting healthier. The Cowboys have the league's worst record against the spread (ATS) for a reason.
Pick: 49ers -3
Marks: Deebo Samuel is out, which makes Aiyuk the king of the Bay Area! In his last five games, Aiyuk has 57 targets, and sporting a 30 percent target share, Nick Mullens loves looking his way. Dallas is a juicy matchup for this young rookie to have a monster day! Pick: Aiyuk over 75.5 rec yards
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-11, 51.5)
Schatz: No matter who plays quarterback against the Lions, their pass defense is awful. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA puts Detroit 31st against the pass, ahead of only the Jets. Meanwhile, Tennessee is the No. 3 passing game in the league, trailing only Kansas City and Green Bay. There will be plenty of opportunity for Ryan Tannehill to get the ball into the end zone, and he has two or more passing touchdowns in 10 out of 13 games this season. We estimate Tannehill will hit this prop 61.5% of the time.
Pick: Tannehill over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-145)
Walder: I often find myself looking at unders on higher longest reception lines, but this is an exception. I mentioned last week that if a player is going to justify a top-of-the-market line like 27.5, they're going to need to check all the boxes. A.J. Brown actually does that, but the line is only 24.5. Brown is 12.2 yards downfield 3 seconds after the snap on average -- seventh highest among wide receivers with at least 175 routes run -- and his target rate is 26%, the 12th highest in the league.
His only non-exceptional number in this realm is his depth of target (45th), but I can live with that with his excellent depth and elite run-after-catch ability. Brown ranks first among wideouts in YAC over expectation per reception, per NFL Next Gen Stats data, and it isn't close.
Pick: Brown longest reception over 24.5 yards (-110)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 51)
Bearman: On the surface, this is a mismatch. The Colts have a top-10 offense and defense and the Texans have neither. Indy is competing for a division title and/or wild-card spot, and the Texans will end up with another top-10 pick in the draft. However, Philip Rivers loves to play close games, and with Deshaun Watson on the other side, anything is possible. When looking for another game to tease with the Packers, I'm going Indy.
Pick: Colts -1 teaser with Packers -2.5
Marks: The Colts get a juicy matchup this week against a Texans team that infrequently pressures the quarterback, and that is the secret sauce to Philip Rivers success. Colts running back, Jonathan Taylor has been a force to be reckoned with, and T.Y. Hilton has finally arrived this season. The Colts will put up points on a Texans defense that will be without Justin Reid.
Pick: Colts -1 in teaser with Ravens/Jaguars over 41.5, Rivers over 271.5 passing yards, TY Hilton over 62.5 receiving yards
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47)
Fortenbaugh: The look-ahead line for this matchup was Vikings -6.5, which reemerged Sunday night at Vikings -3 after Minnesota lost at Tampa Bay and Chicago throttled Houston. That's an overreaction. Don't allow recency bias to cloud your judgment when it comes to the Bears, as Chicago had dropped six straight by an average of 8.3 points prior to the win over Houston. Minnesota is still very much alive in the NFC playoff race and should bounce back in this spot.
Pick: Vikings -3
Marks: The Bears are missing players in their secondary this week with Buster Skrine in concussion protocol, and Jaylon Johnson questionable with a shoulder injury. That should open the doors for both Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson to strut their stuff. I love the matchup for Vikings' tight end, Irv Smith. Kyle Rudolph will be inactive, giving Smith more volume, against the Bears defenses that are one of the worst in defending tight ends this season.
Pick: Vikings -3, Irv Smith over 2.5 receptions, Irv Smith TD (+275)
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 44.5) at Washington
Schatz: Washington is the No. 2 pass defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders DVOA stats, but it has one clear weakness: It ranks dead last in the league covering opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Amari Cooper totaled 192 yards against Washington in two games, Marvin Jones had 96 yards, and Marquise Brown had 86 yards. Washington also is better against short passes than deep ones. If the Seahawks can use max protect schemes to keep Russell Wilson away from pressure, it could be a big day for DK Metcalf.
Pick: Metcalf over 75.5 yards receiving (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13, 47.5)
Schatz: Baltimore has a really strong running game this season, ranking fourth in the NFL by DVOA, but the passing game has really struggled. Even if we remove the game started by Robert Griffin III, the Ravens are 20th in weighted pass DVOA this season. They prefer to throw the ball in the middle of the field, and the Jaguars rank seventh against passes in the middle (compared to 21st against passes to the left and right sides).
Meanwhile, quarterback Gardner Minshew is back in the starting lineup for the Jaguars, and the Jacksonville offense is distinctly better when he's playing this season. In fact, his passing DVOA is only slightly behind Lamar Jackson's in 2020. Sure, the Baltimore defense is much better than the Jacksonville defense. But a 13-point line is a lot to cover, especially for a run- and defense-oriented Ravens team.
Pick: Jaguars +13
Marks: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is peaking at the right time, and put on a clinic against the Browns last week. A lot of criticism about his passing game should fuel his fire against a Jaguar's secondary that has allowed multiple touchdowns in seven straight games. Ravens continue to get healthy from their bout with Covid 19, and are more motivated to win with playoff aspirations.
Pick: Ravens/Jaguars over 41.5 teaser with Colts -1, Jackson over 1.5 TD passes (+140), over 196.5 passing yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 49.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Bearman: It's put up or shut up time for Bruce Arians and the Bucs' offense. After a promising start that saw them score 28 or more points in six of their first 10 games, the offense has regressed, failing to hit that mark in five of the past six games. What's the perfect remedy? The Falcons' secondary. Atlanta ranks 30th in pass defense, allowing 281.8 yards per game, and 29th at 7.41 pass yard per play. It should be easy pickings for quarterback Tom Brady to kick-start an offense that is still 11th in the league. Plus, the Bucs' place-kicker, punter and long-snapper are all on the COVID-19 list, so Arians might roll the dice a little more on fourth downs and 2-point conversions. I'm not confident enough in the Bucs on the road to lay the 6, so I'll look for them to hit that 28-point mark they so often did earlier in the season.
Pick: Buccaneers team total over 27.5
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 49.5)
Fortenbaugh: If cornerback Darius Slay is unable to go, I like this pick a whole lot less, so keep that in mind. The talk in Philadelphia has been about rookie Jalen Hurts, a dual-threat QB who protects the football and takes what the defense gives him. Translation: Hurts plays conservative, smart football -- the exact opposite of what we were seeing from Carson Wentz. But Hurts is only one piece of the puzzle. The defense looked completely different in last weekend's win over New Orleans, flying to the football all game long. Arizona had a nice win over the Giants last weekend, but this Cardinals team had dropped four of five before that. Is everything suddenly fixed? I think not.