NFL conference championship betting first look: The Patrick Mahomes factor

Typically at this point in the season, we would be hard-pressed to find much value in the NFC and AFC Championship Games. We have a unique situation this time around, however, with Patrick Mahomes' status in Kansas City not entirely certain. I'll share my projections and thoughts on each matchup and what I anticipate from the market moving forward.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3 at -125, 51)

I wasn't too surprised by the move on Tampa Bay in the divisional round on early +4s and +3.5s during the week. The move to +2.5 on Sunday morning caught me off guard, however. That's a significant tell. Sure enough, this week we are looking at a similar point spread midweek at a juiced -3. (The +3.5s have already been taken out, basically across the board.) Personally, I would be very surprised if this was a copycat on Sunday and it moved through the key number and closed +2.5.