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The case for betting on the LSU Tigers in 2022

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Why the over on LSU's win total is a smart play (0:49)

Doug Kezirian breaks down why taking the over on LSU's projected seven wins this season is a smart play. (0:49)

College football betting preview schedule

Thursday: Betting Alabama
Friday: Betting Ohio State
Saturday: Betting Georgia
Monday: Betting Clemson
Tuesday: Betting Notre Dame

Bet: LSU over 7 wins (+105)

Best case: The conversation must start with Brian Kelly, who left Notre Dame because of a desire to coach elite talent and have a real chance to compete for a national championship. That will take some time, but he has a proven track record. The guy has won at every stop for three decades. He can maximize talent and should have enough at skill positions to win games. The Tigers lost several transfers but also brought in key players, including quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Worst case: No one knows what to expect from a program that is 11-12 over the past two seasons. The facility has been a revolving door, which includes QB Myles Brennan's recent departure. Kelly may eventually turn this program around, but asking him to win eight games in his first year is tough. LSU has virtually no chance against Alabama and Texas A&M and must also face programs that are trending upward such as Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas. If that all represents five losses, then LSU must run the table just to push the bet.

Betting spin: This is more of a gut play than anything. I realize the program is in transition, but Kelly has repeatedly surpassed expectations at Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Central Michigan. He knows what he's doing. I realize this schedule is more challenging, but the Tigers just need to be 7-5 or better. Kelly has won 40 of the past 41 games in which he was favored. Rarely do his teams lay a stinker. He is prepared and knows how to optimize talent, and he has plenty of that in Baton Rouge.