Football is back and Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season offers a whole slate of interesting props and betting lines.
What is worth looking at from a betting perspective? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks, Erin Dolan, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer their insights into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
How do you approach Week 1? Are there certain strategies you use or types of wagers you gravitate towards or avoid entirely? Do you treat it any differently than any other week?
Dolan: I typically focus on underdogs for Week 1. A trend that stands out to me is divisional home underdogs winning outright 88% of the time since 2012. There are four games on the slate this week where we see this. I think underdogs are typically a good play Week 1 when teams know how they have historically matched up against each other. Week 1 and Week 2 are difficult to handicap, so ease into the season.
Moody: When it comes to Week 1, I'm a firm believer in research and analysis. Analyze preseason performance, but take it with a grain of salt. Roster additions, departures, injuries, offseason developments and historical trends carry a lot of weight. Monitoring line movements in Week 1 is really important. Because bankroll management is so critical, you should also consider making smaller bets or avoiding riskier bets until more statistical information is available. The goal is to set a solid research foundation that you can build on as the season goes on. My preference is to place prop bets on players and teams in Week 1. From there, expand into other types of bets.
What's the game you are most fired up to bet this week?
Walder: Packers at Bears. It's pitting a team I'm high on (Green Bay) against one I'm fading (Chicago). If you look at the Packers' roster outside of Jordan Love, it's pretty stacked. They have a very good offensive line. I'm a Christian Watson believer. And the defense has some serious players in guys like Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary and De'Vondre Campbell. Meanwhile the Bears' defense still has a very poor pass rush, and until Justin Fields stops taking sacks at an extremely high rate, I'm going to consider that a major problem that holds back the Chicago offense. Give me the Packers +1.
Fulghum: 49ers at Steelers. This is without a doubt the most intriguing matchup in the 1 p.m. EST window. The 49ers are a legit Super Bowl contender (+900 to win Super Bowl, the 3rd shortest odds) with the best collection of high-end roster talent in the league. Pittsburgh is, well, Pittsburgh. All Mike Tomlin does is finish .500 or better. Even more so, all Mike Tomlin does is dominate as an underdog. Since Tomlin took over in 2007, the Steelers are the only team in the league with a winning outright record as an underdog (41-39). They are a league-best 49-28-3 ATS as an underdog in that span, including 25-11-2 ATS in the last five seasons. Even the total is compelling at just 41.0. I know the defenses are nasty on both sides, but Kyle Shanahan can score on anybody and it's hard not to be excited about the way Kenny Pickett, George Pickens and the rest of the Steelers offense played this preseason. My gut tells me this is a sneaky fun game offensively and it's hard not to trust Mike Tomlin as a home dog given what he's proven his entire career.
Marks: Jaguars at Colts. Trevor Lawrence will be explosive in his second year with Doug Pederson, as well as the addition of Calvin Ridley. Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson is very raw, with very little experience as a starting QB at the University of Florida. He took only 455 dropbacks in his college career, and was ranked 224th in accuracy. Good luck!
Bryce Young gets the nod at quarterback as Carolina heads to Atlanta (-3.5, 39.5). No QB drafted No. 1 overall has won their first start since David Carr in 2002 (0-13-1 since). Does that change the way you look at this game, or any of the other games with rookie quarterbacks (Jacksonville at Indianapolis, Houston at Baltimore) for that matter?
Dolan: I would lay the points with the Falcons. No. 1 overall pick are also 1-13 ATS in their first regular-season start. Young is stepping into a bad situation, and he will need time to develop. Adam Thielen is dealing with an ankle injury and the team traded DJ Moore this offseason. I don't think the Panthers will be able to put up points to keep up with the Falcons in Week 1.
Moody: That stat doesn't change the way I look at that game or any of the others with rookie quarterbacks. Last season, we didn't have any rookie quarterbacks start Week 1, but in 2023 we will be blessed with three. Consider more than one angle when placing a bet on any of these games. If I had to choose one my recommendation would be for the Jaguars to cover the spread against the Colts. Running back Jonathan Taylor is absent, and Indianapolis has both a rookie head coach in Shane Steichen and a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson. This early in the season, it is unlikely that the Colts' passing game can exploit the Jaguars' secondary. With new addition Calvin Ridley, I see Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence having a big afternoon against Indianapolis' weak secondary.
Walder: The stat doesn't do anything for me. Any quarterback drafted first overall is very likely being drafted to a very bad team -- of course, that group is going to do poorly overall in its first game! If I'm picking a side in that game, I'll take the Panthers +3.5. While the Falcons' roster is better than Carolina's, Desmond Ridder also wasn't anywhere near the caliber of prospect Young was. More than a field goal feels a shade rich for Atlanta.
There is some buzz that this year's Arizona Cardinals (4.5 win total) could be historically bad. Are you buying it? The Cardinals start the season at Washington (-7, 38).
Fulghum: Absolutely. The Commanders are not a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are the team I am choosing for Week 1 in my Eliminator Pool. In fact, I'm pretty much going to select Arizona's opponent in my eliminator pool as often as I can this season. This team is turning to a combination of Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback this season. Good luck. The entire roster is devoid of talent. Jonathan Gannon is a rookie head coach. It sure does seem like this team is actively tanking knowing they have their own first-round pick in 2024 and the Texans' first-round pick in 2024, which could very easily be a top-5 pick. Arizona is going to lose a lot of football games this season.
Marks: Dare I use the word "tank" when it comes to the Cardinals? They are "on the clock" for a QB in next year's draft! They traded a number of solid players before the season, and will start Josh Dobbs at QB. Eric Bienemy brings his high flying KC offense to DC, and should be able to do just enough with Sam Howell to cover this spread.
Which game(s) are you staying away from and why?
Dolan: I am staying away from Philadelphia-New England. This is the one spread for week one that I am exercising extreme caution. Despite how good the Eagles looked last season; this line feels off to me. Traditionally, the Patriots have been strong bets as underdogs under Bill Belichick, covering nearly 61% of the time, but they have only covered two of their last 11 games in that role including playoffs. It will be a stay away, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots covered in this one with the new coaching personnel under Nick Sirianni.
Marks: I have three of them. Carolina at Atlanta is the first. This is two bad teams with a lot of growing pains. Cincinnati at Cleveland is the second. I have concerns about Joe Burrow's calf injury and how that impacts the game. Lastly, Green Bay at Chicago. There is too much hype around Justin Fields and people are underestimating Jordan Love.
Is there anything else you are playing Sunday?
Fulghum: I love the spot for the Seahawks in Week 1. The Rams' offense will be without Cooper Kupp, who is their only legitimate threat on offense. In his absence, LA will rely on Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, rookie Puka Nacua, Ben Skowronek and Demarcus Robinson. Not good enough against Seattle's secondary. Defensively, at least Aaron Donald is healthy ... but that won't be enough. Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner (back in Seattle) and Leonard Floyd are all gone, leaving the Rams' defense extremely green and short on talent. Geno Smith and the Seahawks should have no problem moving the ball on this inexperienced bunch. I like the Seahawks to handle the Rams pretty easily Sunday.
Dolan: Anthony Richardson interception. The Jaguars weren't the best team in takeaways last season, but this is a rookie quarterback playing in his first regular-season game. Plus, the Colts don't even have Jonathan Taylor to lean on in this game. Steichen can make Richardson into a good quarterback, but rookie mistakes will be made.
Moody: Trevor Lawrence OVER 253.5 passing yards. Last season, Lawrence averaged 242 passing yards per game, but surpassed 253.5 yards eight times. With Calvin Ridley joining the roster in the offseason, Lawrence should have success against a young Colts secondary. Ridley led the league in air yards and red zone targets when he played the entire 2020 season.
Walder: Justin Herbert OVER 0.5 interceptions (+126). This surprised me but my model put Herbert at just under 54% to record an interception Sunday -- something of a shock given not only his track record (just a 1.3% interception rate last year) and because the Chargers are light favorites. But while the rate is low, the model reasonably expects a lot of pass attempts from Herbert in what should be a high-scoring game. Those attempts all come with a small amount of risk, and that adds up. Plus, I think Miami's defense is underrated given its talent and new coordinator in Vic Fangio.
Moody: Justin Herbert OVER 296.5 passing yards. It shouldn't surprise bettors if Herbert has a big afternoon through the air Sunday. He's averaged 313.4 passing yards per game in the month of September in his career. Now that Herbert has a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, a vertical passing game is expected to be implemented by the Chargers, and they have the receiving playmakers to execute it. During the four seasons Moore was offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, three of his teams finished sixth, first and fourth in points while averaging 8.3 air yards per pass attempt. Last season, the Dolphins' secondary allowed the fifth most passing yards per game. Miami's defense is not helped by Jalen Ramsey's injury.
Moody: J.K. Dobbins OVER 58.5 rushing yards. The Texans' defense allowed the most rushing yards (2,412) and touchdowns (22) to running backs last season. With the Ravens as heavy favorites, Dobbins may have to grind out the game on the ground with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken expected to focus more on Lamar Jackson as a passer rather than a runner. Through his last nine games, including the playoffs, Dobbins averaged 11.6 rushing attempts and 64.7 rushing yards.