For the most part, what we believe heading into a given season is whatever we believed at the end of the season before. Take the preseason coaches' poll released last week: Among this year's top 11 teams are nine that finished last year in the top 10. It took last year's No. 2 Washington losing its head coach, coordinators, star quarterback and 20 of 22 starters for the Huskies not to start the season ranked pretty high.
There are surprises every year, however. Last season was in no way the most unpredictable year the sport has ever seen, but only half the preseason top 10 finished in the top 10. Two of four College Football Playoff teams began outside the top 10 (albeit in 11th and 12th). Missouri finished the season 11-2 and eighth after going 23-25 over the previous four years. Arizona finished 10-3 and 11th after going just 10-31 over the previous four seasons.
There are always unexpected breakthroughs and unforeseen collapses. Each year, one of the primary preseason questions is: Which of the teams that enjoyed huge surges or huge stumbles the year before will sustain their gains or rebound with vigor?
That's the purpose of this piece. Last year, among my six teams most likely to improve further were Texas, Washington, Florida State and Kansas, teams that went from a combined 31-17 to 48-8. The "most likely to rebound" list wasn't as much of a demonstrative success, but among the six teams mentioned were four (Boston College, Colorado, Colorado State and Texas A&M) that combined to improve from a combined 12-36 to 23-27.
The final preseason SP+ projections are coming next week. But using last year's numbers and general trends, we can begin piecing together the national picture. Which of 2023's unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year's disappointments are likeliest to bounce back? Let's take a look.
