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Why two spots in the College Football Playoff are up for grabs

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney should start ordering pizzas now, and Alabama fans should have iron-clad confidence in their Iron Bowl chances next week.

Beyond that?

The Week 12 playoff picture is up for debate, as the College Football Playoff selection committee has just two more weeks of games remaining -- including the conference title games -- to determine the four best teams in the country. Here's a look at who should have impressed the committee in Week 12, who didn't and what lies ahead:

Most impressive

Michigan State Spartans

What they did: The Spartans won at No. 3 Ohio State, giving them three wins against teams ranked in the selection committee's top 25 (including wins at Michigan and vs. Oregon). It wasn't a fluke win in Columbus. Michigan State will get top-four consideration from the selection committee this week.

What they need to do: Beat Penn State to earn a spot in the Big Ten title game and then knock off undefeated Iowa. It would be very difficult for the selection committee to leave out a one-loss Big Ten champion with the Spartans' résumé.

Oklahoma Sooners

What they did: The Sooners held off a gritty, injury-riddled TCU team that was a two-point conversion away from winning, giving OU back-to-back wins against teams ranked in the committee's top 20. They also have wins at Tennessee, against West Virginia and vs. Texas Tech.

What they need to do: Beat Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 and make the committee forget about the October loss to Texas.

Iowa Hawkeyes

What they did: The same thing they always do: win, this time against Purdue. There's no doubt the Hawkeyes are the best in the West, and it's clear the selection committee likes them, as they have been sitting on the bubble at No. 5 for the past two weeks. With Ohio State's loss, Iowa could move into the top four on Tuesday.

What they need to do: Avoid an upset at Nebraska and knock off a top-10 opponent in the Big Ten championship game. If Iowa wins out and is an undefeated Big Ten champ, there's no question it's in.

Baylor Bears

What they did: Knocked off No. 6 Oklahoma State, which was the last undefeated team remaining in the Big 12. It was the Bears' first win in Stillwater since 1939. The problem is, Baylor also lost to Oklahoma in Week 11, so it should stay behind the Sooners in the rankings because of the head-to-head result.

What they need to do: Pray. Baylor needs to beat TCU and Texas, and it needs Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma. Even then, it might not finish in the top four because its strength of schedule would be a cause for concern.

Oregon Ducks

What they did: Won five straight since Vernon Adams Jr. returned from a broken finger, including a win at Stanford and Saturday's win over USC. Adams has been a major catalyst in the turnaround and gashed USC's defense for 407 yards and six touchdowns. The Ducks should move up in the committee's rankings, and it should help Michigan State.

What they need to do: Wait until next year.

Stanford Cardinal

What they did: The Cardinal clinched the Pac-12's North Division with a win over Cal and earned a trip to the title game, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive with the possibility of winning a league title. They will face the winner of Saturday's USC-UCLA game.

What they need to do: Beat Notre Dame. Stanford is eliminated from the playoff conversation entirely if it loses that one. If the Cardinal can knock off the Irish, it would give them a win over a top-10 opponent heading into the title game, where they would face another top-25 team. The loss to Northwestern can be overlooked, and the loss to Oregon doesn't look so damaging anymore, but Stanford needs some help to get top-four consideration.

North Carolina Tar Heels

What they did: Went to Blacksburg for an emotional sendoff for Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer, who was coaching in his last home game, and found a way to win its 10th straight game. The Tar Heels won the Coastal Division and have a shot at their first ACC title since 1980.

What they need to do: Stop scheduling two FCS teams and beat No. 1 Clemson. If the Tar Heels finish as a one-loss ACC champ, they would be considered by the committee, but it's very possible their dreadful schedule would keep them out -- especially after South Carolina, which beat UNC in the season opener, lost to The Citadel.

Least impressive

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What they did: Turned the ball over five times, including three times in the red zone, in a win against a 3-8 Boston College team. Notre Dame's best wins are against Temple, Navy and Pitt. The selection committee realizes Notre Dame's only loss is to the No. 1 team in the country by two points in the rain, but it needs good wins more than it does a good loss. This could be the week the Irish get bumped from the top four.

What they need to do: Win at Stanford. If Notre Dame can win out, it should still have a great shot at the top, especially considering the Big Ten title game will eliminate either Michigan State or Iowa, and the Big 12 is guaranteed a one-loss champ.

Ohio State Buckeyes

What they did: Lost the only game they've played so far against a ranked opponent in Michigan State. This was the Buckeyes' chance to prove their critics wrong, and take the lead in the Big Ten's East division, but they again looked inept on offense with just five first downs and 132 total yards. Ohio State's only touchdowns were the result of a short field after Michigan State turnovers. The Buckeyes likely lost their shot at defending their national title.

What they need to do: Hope Penn State beats Michigan State. It's the only way Ohio State can get into the title game, where it would need to beat Iowa, but right now, the Buckeyes don't look like a team that can beat Michigan.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

What they did: Squandered an undefeated season and likely a shot at the top four with a loss to Baylor, taking the backseat to Oklahoma in the playoff conversation.

What they need to do: Beat Oklahoma on Saturday and hope that Baylor loses one of its final two games, either against Texas or TCU. It's the only way the Cowboys can finish as a one-loss Big 12 champ, but even that might not be enough to impress the committee, with just two wins over ranked teams (TCU and Oklahoma).

Florida Gators

What they did: Barely -- barely -- beat Florida Atlantic, needing overtime against an Owls team that had won just twice in 10 games this season and had never beaten an AP-ranked team. The Gators were 31-point favorites. It comes two weeks after they struggled to beat Vanderbilt.

What they need to do: Knock off rival Florida State and upset Alabama in the SEC championship game. No pressure. Florida has clinched the SEC East, but that's like being the tallest third-grader right now. It was an embarrassing week for the SEC and the division, and Florida was part of the problem, but a one-loss SEC champ would likely be in, and Florida still has a shot at it.

LSU Tigers

What they did: Lost to Ole Miss, dropping three straight games for the first time since 1999 and perpetuating questions about coach Les Miles' job security. It's hard to believe the Tigers were undefeated in the SEC and the selection committee's No. 2 team just a few weeks ago.

What they need to do: Hit the reset button. It was ugly. The Tigers had 13 penalties, three turnovers and four fumbles. They need to regroup, close the season with a win against Texas A&M, and then evaluate the future of the program.

Houston Cougars

What they did: Lost their chance at finishing undefeated with a shocking 20-17 loss at UConn, opening the Group of 5 race for a New Year's Six bowl even further.

What they need to do: Beat Navy on Saturday to win the American's West Division and then win the conference title game. Temple controls its own destiny in the East and can clinch the division with a win over UConn next week.