For all of this season, we have been able to count on two things regarding the SP+ rankings: Ohio State was going to be No. 1, and Alabama and Clemson were going to trade the No. 2 and 3 rankings back and forth.
Thanks to an extremely 2020 oddity, that trend finally changed. To be sure, Ohio State's still No. 1 after handling a top-10 Penn State team with relative ease. But thanks to Clemson's Trevor Lawrence-less struggle against Boston College, combined with Wisconsin's canceled game against Nebraska -- which meant the Badgers have still produced a single, nearly perfect data point for 2020 -- the Tigers fell to fourth.
We knew the odd scheduling and the potential for positive coronavirus tests would do some funky things to the numbers, and safe to say, "1-0 Wisconsin jumps 7-0 Clemson without playing" qualifies as funky. Assuming the run of positive tests that caused this flip doesn't create any long-term player absences or health concerns (fingers crossed), it's safe to say things will return to normal in due time, either because Clemson again played like Clemson, Wisconsin looked a bit less perfect, or both. Until then, enjoy the oddity.
Also of note: Florida's demolition of Missouri, combined with Georgia's offensive sleepwalk of a win against Kentucky, meant that the Gators and Bulldogs are now almost perfectly tied in the SP+ ratings as they gear up for their annual rivalry game. Fun!
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
More than ever, it's important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
