This is a busy Sunday in the NBA, with 18 teams in action in nine games. The fun starts at 3 PM ET, with the Bucks playing their second straight game in LA, this time against the Clippers. The slate ends in LA as well, with the Timberwolves taking on the Lakers at 9 PM ET. The seven games in between include four others where both teams would be in the postseason, if the season ended today. As always, let's dig deeper into the slate and find some potentially profitable opportunities.
LA Clippers +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (-105). The Bucks won six straight games out the All-Star Break, including a seven-point win over the Clippers without Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor, with a heavy defensive effort that held their opponents to an average of only 98.7 PPG. Their defense has reverted in their last two games, though, allowing 125 and 123 points in losses to the Warriors and Lakers, respectively. While the Bucks still have a size advantage they can potentially exploit against the Clippers, the Clippers have one of the best home records in the NBA (22-8) while the Bucks are only .500 on the road (16-16). Per the Basketball Power Index (BPI) game predictor, the Clippers have a 61.9 percent chance to win outright and should be favored by 3.5 instead of giving points.
Jordan Poole over 17.5 points (-130). Poole has played well since returning to a sixth man role coming off the All-Star break, averaging 22.8 PPG while scoring 18 or more six times nine games. On Sunday he faces a Heat defense that is solid overall but has been vulnerable to opposing shooting guards, allowing 24.2 PPG to the position (ninth-most in the NBA).
New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 points over Atlanta Hawks (-110). The Pelicans are quietly one of the hotter teams in the NBA right now, winners of three straight and 12 of their past 16 games. They took their foot off the gas in their last game against the 76ers and had to hold on to win by eight, but they had been up by 35 points early and won their previous two games by a combined 68 points. The Hawks have also scratched out three straight wins, but they are just so short-handed right now with Jalen Johnson joining star Trae Young and big man Onyeka Okongwu on the sidelines. According to the BPI game predictor, the Pelicans should be favored by 7.2 points in this matchup and I'm expecting them to outplay that prediction.
Orlando Magic -1.5 points over Indiana Pacers (-115). The Magic came out flat and got blitzed early in their last game, a 24-point loss to the Knicks, but on the whole have been playing excellent ball of late. They've won nine of their past 12 games, and on Sunday face a Pacers team that they are 2-0 against this season. The Pacers recently lost wing Bennedict Mathurin to a season-ending shoulder injury, and will have an uphill battle to get their first win over the Magic this season.
New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers under 211.5 points (-105). The Knicks are coming off one of the best defensive efforts of the season, holding a Magic team that had won eight of nine games coming in to an NBA season-low 74 points in a 98-74 win. Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau has them ratcheting up the defense as the playoffs approaches. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be without Tyrese Maxey for the fourth game in a row and are already missing MVP Joel Embiid. They only managed 98 points in their last game, and that was with a late surge to come back from 35 down after only scoring 34 points in the first half of the game. This just feels like a game where points could be a premium.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Milwaukee Bucks at LA Clippers
3 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 41-23 (27-37-0)
Clippers: 41-21 (32-30-0)
Line: Bucks (-3.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: Bucks (-160), Clippers (+135)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 3.5, straight up 62%, 237.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Knee); Khris Middleton, (OUT - Ankle)
Clippers: Russell Westbrook, (OUT - Hand)
New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks
6 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 38-25 (34-28-1)
Hawks: 29-34 (22-41-0)
Line: Pelicans (-7.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-280), Hawks (+230)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 7.1, straight up 74%, 233.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, (OUT - Knee)
Hawks: Dejounte Murray, (GTD - Calf); Seth Lundy, (GTD - Back); Jalen Johnson, (OUT - Ankle); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT - Toe); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Trae Young, (OUT - Finger)
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
6 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 10-53 (29-33-1)
Heat: 35-28 (31-31-1)
Line: Heat (-11.5) Total: 228.5
Money Line: Wizards (+440), Heat (-590)
BPI Projection: Heat by 11.3, straight up 85%, 222.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Landry Shamet, (GTD - Calf); Marvin Bagley III, (OUT - Back); Isaiah Livers, (OUT - Hip)
Heat: Kevin Love, (OUT - Heel); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Foot); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
6 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 35-29 (33-29-2)
Magic: 37-27 (41-23-0)
Line: Magic (-2.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: Pacers (+115), Magic (-135)
BPI Projection: Magic by 2.1, straight up 57%, 234.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Doug McDermott, (OUT - Calf); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT - Shoulder)
Magic: Jalen Suggs, (GTD - Thigh); Markelle Fultz, (GTD - Knee)
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings
6 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 28-35 (33-28-2)
Kings: 36-26 (32-29-1)
Line: Kings (-6.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Rockets (+220), Kings (-270)
BPI Projection: Kings by 4.6, straight up 66%, 233.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Kings: Davion Mitchell, (GTD - Chest); Sasha Vezenkov, (OUT - Ankle)
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
7 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 35-28 (33-30-0)
Knicks: 37-26 (33-29-1)
Line: Knicks (-7.5) Total: 208.5
Money Line: 76ers (+240), Knicks (-290)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 4.1, straight up 65%, 225.8 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: Tyrese Maxey, (OUT - Concussion); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee); De'Anthony Melton, (OUT - Back); Joel Embiid, (OUT - Knee)
Knicks: OG Anunoby, (OUT - Elbow); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle)
Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 25-39 (28-33-3)
Cavaliers: 41-22 (31-31-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-7.5) Total: 207.5
Money Line: Nets (+270), Cavaliers (-340)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 8.2, straight up 78%, 217.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Lonnie Walker IV, (GTD - Illness); Cameron Johnson, (OUT - Ankle); Ben Simmons, (OUT - Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, (OUT - Knee); Max Strus, (OUT - Knee); Tristan Thompson, (OUT - Suspension); Evan Mobley, (OUT - Ankle); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder
7 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 22-42 (30-34-0)
Thunder: 44-19 (38-24-1)
Line: Thunder (-15.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (+900), Thunder (-1600)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 16.6, straight up 93%, 228.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: GG Jackson, (GTD - Knee); John Konchar, (GTD - Ankle); Jordan Goodwin, (GTD - Achilles); Luke Kennard, (GTD - Knee); Brandon Clarke, (OUT - Achilles); Yuta Watanabe, (OUT - Wrist); Scotty Pippen Jr., (OUT - Back); Desmond Bane, (OUT - Ankle); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Finger); Derrick Rose, (OUT - Groin)
Thunder: None reported
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
9:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 44-20 (31-30-3)
Lakers: 35-30 (29-36-0)
Line: Lakers (-1.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (-105), Lakers (-115)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 0.1, straight up 50%, 230.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, (GTD - Ankle); Monte Morris, (OUT - Hamstring); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Knee)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Shoulder); Cam Reddish, (GTD - Ankle); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Christian Wood, (OUT - Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT - Foot); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee); Colin Castleton, (OUT - Wrist)