The Phoenix Suns defeated the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, solidifying the perception that they are serious contenders this season. According to ESPN BET, the Suns currently have the fifth-shortest odds in the NBA to win the Championship (+1600).
Those are the third-shortest championship odds among Western Conference teams, trailing only the Nuggets (+400) and LA Clippers (+550), but still ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder (+2000), Dallas Mavericks (+3000), Los Angeles Lakers (+3000), Minnesota Timberwolves (+3000), Golden State Warriors (+4000), New Orleans Pelicans (+7500) and Sacramento Kings (+7500).
However, if you reference the Basketball Power Index (BPI) odds to win the championship, you get an entirely different story.
According to BPI, the Suns are not really contenders at all. They have only the 15th-best odds to win the championship, marking them as exactly average among 30 NBA teams and near the bottom of the 18 teams with at least a 25% chance to make the playoffs. The Suns' 0.8% odds to win the championship, per BPI, ties them with the Kings for ninth in the Western Conference alone -- and last among teams out West with any realistic chance to make the playoffs.
Why is there such a chasm between the public perception of the Suns' level and the story told by their team analytics? Which metric (futures betting odds or the statistical footprint) is a better predictor? In fact, do the Suns have value in any futures market at all? Let's explore.
Over-reliance on individual scorers
The Suns are built on the "Big Three" concept, bringing together three superstars that had established themselves in different locations in the hope they would mesh into contenders. The biggest name on Phoenix is, of course, former MVP and two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant. Durant is one of the most proficient and efficient scorers in NBA history, and his Hall of Fame resume more than speaks for itself. Since the 2021-22 season, Durant has averaged 29.0 PPG on rounded 50/40/90 shooting percentages (53 FG%, 40 3P%, 90 FT%).
Durant joined the Suns' homegrown superstar, Devin Booker, at the end of last season. And, it was Booker -- square in his NBA prime and almost a decade younger than Durant -- who proved to be the leading producer for the Suns in last season's playoffs. Booker led the entire NBA in playoff scoring last season at 33.7 PPG while dishing 7.2 APG and shooting a whopping 58.5% from the field.
Then, this offseason, the Suns completed their Big Three by trading for two-time NBA scoring runner-up Bradley Beal, who had averaged 30.9 PPG between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.
While this type of concentrated scoring firepower sounds very impressive and gives them a puncher's chance in any matchup against any opponent, it is typically not the way to build a consistent winner. There is a such thing as diminishing returns, with the old truism that "there is only one ball" coming into play.
There just aren't enough shots on any one team for three players to be maximized as scorers simultaneously. Plus, since Durant, Booker and Beal all make their impacts on offense -- and primarily as perimeter scorers -- the members of this Big Three can't all be used to their fullest at the same time.
Contrast that with the top players on the other Western Conference contenders.
The Nuggets are built around Nikola Jokic's awesome passing and interior presence, with a balanced cast of shooters and defenders around him at other positions.
Minnesota's Big Three features an elite two-way wing in Anthony Edwards, a multi-time Defensive Player of the Year big man in Rudy Gobert and an inside-outside scoring threat in Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Thunder feature a dominant perimeter scorer in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an elite defensive big man in Chet Holmgren and a strong two-way wing in Jalen Williams.
Even the Clippers, known for their dominant perimeter scorers, feature a two-time Defensive Player of the Year in Kawhi Leonard, another multiple-time NBA All Defensive team selection in Paul George and a multiple-time NBA assists leader in James Harden.
The scoring ability of the individual Suns stars is awesome, but the fit doesn't allow their main players to all produce at their peak in synergy, the way their competition is able to do.
Lack of size, defense and floor generalship
The other side of the coin when it comes to the Suns' over-reliance on three elite scorers is that they lack talent and production at other aspects of good basketball. The team traded away the majority of their size, floor generalship and defensive talent in the series of moves that brought these scoring stars together. The NBA salary cap this season is around $136M, and the trio of Durant, Booker and Beal have a combined salary of about $130M by themselves. There just weren't enough resources for the Suns to surround their Big Three perimeter scorers with size and balanced talent.
The result is a decidedly average team across the board. According to Basketball-Reference, despite their elite scorers, the Suns rank only 13th out of the 30 NBA teams in Offensive Rating (ORtg) at 117.7 points per 100 possessions. They rank 12th in team Defensive Rating (DRtg) at 114.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. They play at an average pace, 98.8 possessions per game (15th in NBA). They are 25th in the NBA in forcing turnovers (11.3 TO% on defense), and 20th in team defensive rebounding percentage (74.9 DRB%).
This imbalanced team construction also shows up in the +/- profiles of their big men and defensive role players. The best +/- profile among season-long rotation players on the Suns doesn't belong to any of Durant, Booker or Beal. It instead belongs to center Jusuf Nurkic.
The Suns outscore opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions with Nurkic on the court (compared to 5.8 PP100 for Booker, 5.2 PP100 for Durant), and the team is 14.9 points worse per 100 possessions with Nurkic off the court versus when he's on (7.5 PP100 for Durant, 7.2 PP100 for Booker). This doesn't indicate in any way that Nurkic is better than his superstar teammates, but instead shows how much the team absolutely craves his size and rebounding and misses it when he's not around.
A similar story is playing out with role player defensive forward Royce O'Neale, who the Suns traded for last month. In his 11 games with the team, the Suns are outscoring opponents by 10.7 PP100 with O'Neal on the court, and are 8.8 PP100 worse when he's off.
Health concerns
The last elephant in the room when it comes to the Suns' roster construction is that best ability: availability.
Durant (171 games missed from 2019-20 through 2022-23), Booker (43 games missed from 2021-22 to 2022-23) and Beal (74 games missed from 21-22 to 22-23) have all missed a lot of time due to injuries over recent seasons -- and that has played out this season as well. Beal has missed 29 out of 63 games, Booker 13 (and counting, as he's currently out injured) and Durant has sat out seven times. The Suns have only had their top trio on the court in the same game 23 times out of 63 games this season.
Futures outlook
This deeper dive into the Suns supports the BPI projections, that the Suns are closer to being an average team than to being a contender. As such, I don't see value in any of their futures projections to win the championship (+1600), the Western Conference (+900) or even the Pacific Division (+3000).
It's important to recognize that this doesn't mean they can't win, just that I think the odds of them winning are longer than the odds you could get from a sportsbook like ESPN BET.
However, there is one future offered on ESPN BET where the Suns could have value. That's their odds to miss the playoffs (+300). The Suns would currently be the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, but have only a half-game lead over the Kings for seventh and a two-game lead over the Mavericks for eighth.
The Suns also have, by far, the hardest remaining strength of schedule (SoS) of any team in the NBA. Per BPI, an average team would expect to win only 41.6% of their games against the Suns' remaining schedule, while the second-hardest schedule (Utah) would project to win 45.8% of the time. Said differently, the gap in SoS from the Suns' No. 30 rank to the Jazz's 29th is as large as the gap between the Jazz and the Lakers at 17th.
If the Suns were to drop to the Play-In Tournament, they would face stiff competition to get into the playoffs. The Suns have losing records this season against both the currently eighth-seeded Mavericks (1-2) and the currently ninth-seeded Lakers (2-3).
Also per BPI, the Suns have just a 67.7% chance to make the playoffs, which means they also have about a one-in-three chance to miss the playoffs. The +300 odds on ESPN BET match up almost perfectly with the BPI odds, giving a 3-to-1 payout if they miss. That is reasonable futures value, and way better than any of the other Suns' futures on the board this season.