Thursday night's NBA slate features five games, and the game I'm most interested in from a betting perspective is the final tilt of the evening between the Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams are trying to cement their playoff position in the Western Conference. Two prop bets in this game caught my attention. Let's take a closer look at those and the rest of my picks for Thursday.
Domantas Sabonis over 40.5 points, rebounds and assists (-120). New Orleans holds the No. 6 seed in the East, but the Kings still have an outside chance to avoid in the play-in tournament, so this game is important. The Kings host the Pelicans, Suns and Blazers at home to close the regular season. If the Kings win all three -- and get help -- they can land in the sixth spot. Even though Sabonis has cleared this line only three times in his past 10 games, it's a great opportunity for him. He has surpassed this line in 61% of his home games this season.
Jonas Valanciunas over 16.5 points and rebounds (-115). Valanciunas has exceeded this line in seven of his past 10 games, despite averaging just 18.5 minutes. Larry Nance Jr. has been receiving more minutes in the Pelicans' rotation, averaging 23.2 minutes during that time, but history suggests New Orleans will rely more on Valanciunas against Sabonis. Valanciunas has crossed this line in six consecutive games against the Kings, averaging 9.2 field-goal attempts, 14.7 rebound chances and 26.6 minutes per game in those matchups.
New York Knicks (+1.5, -150 alternate line) at Boston Celtics. This game holds little significance for the Celtics, who have the best record in the league and have secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Several players, including Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, are listed as game-time decisions, so Boston could use this game as opportunity to rest its guys. On the other side, the Knicks (-2.5, -110) are coming off consecutive losses to the Bulls and Heat and are battling to secure a top-three seed in the conference. New York has performed well against the spread, with a record of 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Jalen Brunson over 35.5 points and assists (-125). The Knicks are likely to continue heavily relying on Brunson, who has accumulated a 37.3% usage rate in games without Julius Randle this season. He has surpassed this line in four of his last five games, averaging 24.4 field goal attempts and 14.2 potential assists per game during that period. Also, he has exceeded this benchmark in seven of his past 10 road games.
Cade Cunningham over 6.5 assists (-130). If Cunningham can play (he has missed four straight games with a knee injury), Detroit should keep this game close even though it is a nearly double-digit underdogs (Bulls -9.5). The Pistons have won two of their past three games against the Bulls and covered in three of their last four games as underdogs of nine or more points. Cunningham has surpassed this line in seven of his last 10 games and has eclipsed it in 73% of his home games this season. The Bulls rank 23rd in assists allowed per game.
Projections and injury reports
Odds provided by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 37-42 (38-40-1)
Pistons: 13-66 (38-39-2)
Line: Bulls (-9.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Bulls (-450), Pistons (+340)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 7.9, straight up 74%, 220.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD - Ankle); Andre Drummond, (GTD - Ankle); Ayo Dosunmu, (GTD - Quadriceps); Julian Phillips, (OUT - Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT - Foot)
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD - Knee); Simone Fontecchio, (OUT - Toe); Ausar Thompson, (OUT - Illness); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT - Hamstring); Quentin Grimes, (OUT - Knee); Stanley Umude, (OUT - Ankle)
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 47-32 (43-35-1)
Celtics: 62-17 (42-34-3)
Line: Knicks (-2.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Knicks (-140), Celtics (+120)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 2.2, straight up 57%, 221.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (GTD - Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder)
Celtics: Al Horford, (GTD - Toe); Jaylen Brown, (GTD - Hand); Jayson Tatum, (GTD - Knee); Jrue Holiday, (GTD - Knee); Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD - Hamstring); Xavier Tillman, (GTD - Knee)
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 39-40 (43-34-2)
Jazz: 29-50 (39-40-0)
Line: Rockets (-10.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Rockets (-500), Jazz (+360)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 7.5, straight up 73%, 225.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Alperen Sengun, (OUT - Ankle); Jae'Sean Tate, (OUT - Ankle); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Jazz: Collin Sexton, (OUT - Illness); John Collins, (OUT - Back); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT - Back); Kris Dunn, (OUT - Foot); Walker Kessler, (OUT - Nose); Lauri Markkanen, (OUT - Shoulder)
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 44-35 (42-35-2)
Blazers: 21-58 (39-40-0)
Line: Warriors (-14.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Warriors (-1400), Blazers (+750)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 11.4, straight up 82%, 210.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Dario Saric, (GTD - Knee); Draymond Green, (GTD - Knee)
Blazers: Anfernee Simons, (OUT - Knee); Jerami Grant, (OUT - Hamstring); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT - Elbow); Matisse Thybulle, (OUT - Ankle); Robert Williams III, (OUT - Knee); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT - Abdomen); Toumani Camara, (OUT - Ribs)
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 47-32 (41-37-1)
Kings: 45-34 (41-37-1)
Line: Kings (-1.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-105), Kings (-115)
BPI Projection: Kings by 1.9, straight up 56%, 214.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Naji Marshall, (GTD - Shoulder); Brandon Ingram, (OUT - Knee)
Kings: None reported