Logo threes. Roasting records. Taking the "hand heart" to Swiftian levels.
Caitlin Clark has changed the face of basketball, bringing a groundswell of excitement to the sport. That well-deserved and carefully cultivated hype has resulted in a slew of Clark-adjacent conversations. From an increase in ticket sales to a boom in women's apparel stock to the creation of CC-specific betting props, the fever is real.
The odds for success certainly favor Clark, and that's great for the WNBA. But how can bettors cash in on the fun? Here are five prop bets to consider heading into Clark's highly anticipated rookie campaign:
Lines from ESPN BET
as of time of publication.
Caitlin Clark under 849.5 total regular season points scored (+110)
It's ponytails over pistols for me. Clark broke Pete Maravich's record for the most points scored by a Division I basketball player (3,667) in March, racking up 3,951 points over her stellar college career. The Iowa legend also bested Kelsey Plum's single season points record (1,109), averaging 28.42 points per outing in 2023. Of course expectations are sky high, but are they realistic? Is the hype inflating the market?
I lean towards the latter. Only three players -- Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, and A'Ja Wilson -- cleared this line last season. All three of them are stars. None of them are rookies. In order for Clark to register 850 points, she'd have to average 21.25 points per game. But just two rookies in WNBA history have managed that many points per contest (Cynthia Cooper in 1997 and Seimone Augustus in 2006).
Clark, undoubtedly, has the talent to produce, but she's also coming off of a rigorous few months in college before diving straight into her first pro campaign.
The rookie wall is real. So is the likelihood of her smashing this total in year two.
Caitlin Clark under 134.5 total regular season 3-pointers made (Even)
548. That's the number of 3-pointers Clark sunk over her college career. Nearly 37% of those buckets (201) came in her final year as a Hawkeye. There's no doubt Clark's long-range shooting prowess will be called upon in the pros, particularly when noting that the Fever made the third-fewest number of 3-pointers (269) in 2023.
But 135 3s is a lot. A number that high would break the single-season record, which was set by Sabrina Ionescu last year. The Liberty star made 128 shots from beyond the arc, averaging 3.6 3PM per game. She missed four games due to injury, but was also a fourth-year guard playing on a team with the fifth-highest pace. Ionescu isn't the league's only long-range shooting star, of course. Diana Taurasi can still deal from downtown and remains the last player to lead the league in threes in back-to-back years (2016-18). Taurasi hit that milestone over a decade into her career.
It is well within reason to assume Clark will record triple-digit 3s in her first pro campaign. She could even average up to 3.0 3-point shots per contest (which was the second-highest 3PM average in 2023, posted by Loyd). Managing that lofty bar, however, would still only put Clark at 120 total 3PM over a 40-game season. The math just doesn't work on this one.
Caitlin Clark to win Rookie of the Year (-600)
Winning is still winning even if the payout is more pocket change than bag sized. Plus, after so many unders it might feel refreshing to align with the bandwagoners. Clark isn't just a heavy favorite for ROY, she also has the third-shortest odds to win the WNBA regular season MVP (+900, behind Wilson and Stewart).
The former Hawkeye's popularity isn't the only factor in making her such a shoo-in for ROY honors. She was the first overall pick in the 2024 WNBA draft and two most recent No. 1 overall picks also earned Rookie of the Year honors: Aliyah Boston in 2023 and Rhyne Howard in 2022. In fact, the No. 1 pick has won the ROY award in 11 of the past 16 seasons.
Indiana Fever under 20.5 regular-season wins (-115)
Clark's addition to the Fever will certainly lift the squad. She's not only an ace shooter, but she's also a dazzling facilitator. Surrounded by more talent -- including the aforementioned dynamo, Boston -- Clark won't need to carry the team every contest. That figures to boost the Fever's win total by a significant number. Indiana will, absolutely, best their 13-27 record from last year. But they are unlikely to add eight wins.
For context, only four teams won more than 20 games last year. Two of them included the conference champions; the Aces and Liberty. Speaking of the Liberty, New York went from 16 to 32 wins from 2022 to 2023. However, the front office was able to accomplish that feat by creating a super-team of seasoned vets that included Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot.
This is not that. Indiana is on the way to being a contender, but this line is too elevated to reach for.
Indiana Fever to make the playoffs (-300)
There's no doubt that the Fever are improving. Clark's aptitude as a (long-range) shooter as well as her ability to dole out dimes should help Indiana space the floor. These were two areas in which the team struggled (third-fewest 3s per game and second-fewest assists) last season. An ascent is, therefore, imminent.
The club also added Katie Lou Samuelson (who was on maternity leave last season) and Damiris Dantas. Samuelson managed a career effort with the Sparks back in 2022, averaging nearly 10 points and 3 points per effort. Dantas, for her part, missed significant time due to injury and personal reasons, but her presence adds depth and veteran savvy to this young team.
The Fever are evolving and figure to finish inside the top-eight clubs, securing a spot in (at least) Round One.