Based on early evidence that the baseball is traveling farther than last season, I recently discussed 16 batters in the best position to benefit. While it's far too soon for a victory lap, the early returns are encouraging.
Using HR/PA (home runs per plate appearance) as the measure, here are the results through April 30:
Collectively, the 16 players identified as strong candidates to increase their home runs have indeed done so, at a rate nearly three times that of the league. This begs the question: "What pitchers should be targeted or avoided based on analogous research?"
To briefly review, the hitting parameters are
Above 40 percent fly ball rate (Fangraphs)
Below 25 percent strikeout rate
Average 2017 fly ball distance between 315 and 329 feet
This week let's consider pitchers to avoid. Pitchers to target will be the subject of a follow-up discussion. The primary factor is average fly ball distance. Being realistic, concentration will be on the top 100 starting pitchers drafted in 2019. This covers at least the first four starters drafted in deep leagues and potentially the whole staff in standard ESPN formats.
Unfortunately, 70 hurlers meet the criteria, and that doesn't include six guys not appearing in the majors last season. More filters are necessary.
Again, approaching the conundrum from a draft-worthy perspective, starting pitchers should be expected to be at least league average with respect to strikeout rate. Setting the fly ball rate to 37 percent avails 20 pitchers meeting the following criteria:
Above 37 percent fly ball rate (Fangraphs)
Above 22.3 percent strikeout rate
Average 2017 fly ball distance between 315 and 329 feet
Top-100 pitcher according to 2019 ADP
The conclusion is to express concern with 20 starting pitchers. However, there's a little over a month's worth of data to explore and perhaps shape expectations for the nearly five months of action left to play.
Before revealing the score of scary starters, here's the aggregate season-to-data for the 20 pitchers: