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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Jeffrey Springs is expected to make his return to the Tampa Bay Rays. Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterJul 30, 2024, 02:44 PM
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            • Fantasy baseball, football and basketball analyst for ESPN
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Ray of sunshine returns to mound

          Tampa Bay Rays LHP Jeffrey Springs was one of fantasy's top finds during the 2022 season, as he posted a 2.46 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 135 1/3 innings, including 25 starts. His 3.8 WAR ranked 10th among AL pitchers, and he compiled more strikeouts (144) than innings pitched. Fantasy managers loved him, made him a top-40 starting pitcher option in 2023 drafts, and enjoyed his first three starts of that season, when he permitted only four hits and one earned run over 16 near-perfect innings.

          Unfortunately, that is the last time we saw Springs, as he suffered a torn UCL and needed Tommy John surgery. Well, Springs returns on Tuesday for an intrastate home matchup with the dreadful Miami Marlins and, since he threw 82 pitches in his most recent rehab outing for Triple-A Durham, his workload should be fine. Rostered in 11.2% of ESPN standard leagues, Springs is not only a strong streamer, but worth adding for the long term as well. Springs boasts a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over parts of three seasons and 196 innings as a member of the Rays.

          Springs, 31, was once an overlooked 30th-round selection in the 2015 amateur draft by the Texas Rangers. He emerged for Tampa Bay thanks to a new approach featuring his wicked changeup, which he threw more than 34% of the time, and a solid slider to help keep right-handed batters off-balance. It worked. Springs once looked to be on a journeyman's path. In 2022, he turned into an ace. Fantasy managers should add Springs, hoping for a return to statistical excellence.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          By Todd Zola

          • Arizona Diamondbacks 1B Christian Walker exited last night's contest due to left oblique tightness. The severity of the injury will be determined after Walker is re-evaluated today. His availability for tonight's home date with the Washington Nationals is unclear.

          • Newly acquired OF Randy Arozarena left last night's game in the seventh inning after colliding with the short right field wall in Fenway Park's foul territory. Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais is hopeful that Arozarena can return to the lineup tonight.

          • Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy provided an update on SP Jon Gray, indicating Gray's groin injury could keep him out for up to a month. The Rangers staff was recently thinned after dealing SP Michael Lorenzen to the Kansas City Royals. However, SP Tyler Mahle is close to making his 2024 (and Rangers) debut following his Tommy John surgery. Mahle threw 55 pitches last Thursday, with the hopes of adding another 10 or so tomorrow in what could be his last rehab outing before joining the Rangers rotation.

          • Baltimore Orioles C James McCann was hit in the face by a fastball in the first inning of the opener of yesterday's doubleheader with the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite getting bloodied, McCann stayed in to catch the entire game. Afterwards, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde expressed concern that McCann likely suffered a broken nose and could be headed for an IL stint.

          • The MRI on Atlanta Braves SP Reynaldo Lopez came back negative. Lopez had left Sunday's game due to right forearm tightness but has seemingly escaped major injury. The club is hopeful that Lopez avoids an IL stint and perhaps can even make his next start.

          • New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton returned last night with newly acquired Jazz Chisholm Jr. making his first career start at the hot corner. Chisholm played well defensively, starting an around-the-horn double play on the first ball hit his way. He also clubbed a pair of home runs in the Yankees' 14-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          Baseball's trade deadline hits at 6 p.m. ET, just a few hours after the first scheduled game of the day (Guardians-Tigers at 1 p.m. ET), so there may be some late-announced changes to MLB rosters that fantasy managers cannot immediately react to. Luckily for fantasy managers, many trades have already occurred over the weekend. Still, be on the lookout!

          • The Boston Red Sox re-acquired LHP James Paxton last week, and he makes the first start of his second Red Sox stint on Tuesday against the offensively challenged Seattle Mariners. Paxton made 19 starts for last season's Red Sox, posting an avoidable 4.50 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, albeit with a usable 24.6% strikeout rate. He made 18 starts for this season's Los Angeles Dodgers before being designated for assignment last week, posting a disappointing 16.4% K-rate. Which version of Paxton shows up this week? Only deep-leaguers should want to find out.

          • Everyone should want to find out if San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray can continue the success from last week's 2024 debut, when he fanned eight Dodgers over five hitless innings, although he did permit an earned run. Ray was a bit wild in his first start returning from Tommy John surgery, issuing two walks, two wild pitches and hitting two Dodgers. Still, he won. He now makes his first home start for the Giants versus the Bay-sharing (at least still for this season) Oakland Athletics. The Athletics are one of baseball's highest scoring offenses in July, but Ray (who won the 2021 AL Cy Young award with the Toronto Blue Jays) is one of the more difficult pitchers to hit.

          • The day's signature pitching matchup comes in Philadelphia, as New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole faces Phillies RHP Aaron Nola in the second game of their potential World Series preview. Cole comes off a rough outing against the New York Mets where he permitted eight hits, six earned runs and three home runs, spiking his ERA back up to 5.40, and his WHIP up to 1.46. Cole has only two quality starts among his seven outings this season since returning from nerve irritation in his pitching elbow. Still few would ever recommend benching Cole in fantasy. The Phillies, despite leading the sport in wins, have been offensively inconsistent for several months.

          • Betting tip of the day: When in doubt, pick on the worst team in baseball. The Chicago White Sox last won a baseball game 20 days ago. Kansas City Royals RHP Michael Wacha tossed seven shutout innings against them two starts ago, and who knows who else from Chicago's lineup will be left after today's trade deadline. Take the Royals to win (-190), Wacha for under 2.5 runs (-140) and star SS Bobby Witt Jr. to continue enjoying himself with over 2.5 total bases (+125).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday