In an ideal draft, you will get an earlier-round value out of each of your picks. In other words, if your third-rounder performs like a second-rounder, your fifth-rounder performs like a third-rounder and your 10th-rounder comes through like a seventh-rounder, you should have a competitive team.
We call these players "sleepers" because your opponents are snoozing on them during drafts, thus allowing you to snag them later than they should go.
In order for you to be fully prepared to take advantage of your competitors, I have compiled the top sleepers for the 2015-16 campaign, based on the average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues as of Oct. 12, breaking them into three different groups:
Sleepers based on ADP: Players who I think should be selected significantly higher in drafts than their current ADP. Basically, players who are creating terrific value right now.
Upside values plays: Players who I think have an appropriate ADP based on all factors, but who I suspect will end up out-producing their respective draft positions anyway.
Late-round wild cards: Players with enough question marks to make them last until the latter rounds but whose ADP I expect will rise in the coming weeks.
Sleepers based on ADP
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP: 35)
Everyone is going bonkers for Rudy Gobert (ADP: 18) and Hassan Whiteside (ADP: 30), but Noel slips to 35? I don't get it. He averaged 13.1 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 2.3 BPG, a 48.7 FG percentage and a 65.5 FT percentage in 26 games after the All-Star break last season. A double-double threat with impact blocks and steals shouldn't slip out of the early part of the third round.
Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors (ADP: 64)
I know, it seems like we've been waiting forever for this guy to rev it up in Fantasyland -- but don't give up on him now. He didn't have the trust of his coaching staff last year and was routinely sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter when studs stuff the stat sheet. Coach Dwane Casey has suggested that he is ready to stick with the big man when it counts this season, and with a $64 million contract extension in his pocket, it's safe to assume that's not just talk. The 23-year-old has the potential for 15 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.5 BPG, a 56 FG percentage and a 78 FT percentage and should go around No. 40 in my opinion.
Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs (ADP: 70)
It isn't easy to pull the trigger in the middle rounds for a player who might barely top 12 PPG, but Green is exactly the kind of all-around player I love targeting in the 45-to-55 range. That's because he is on that short list of players who can top 2.5 3-PPG, 1.0 SPG and 1.0 BPG. In fact, I have him projected for 195 3s, 101 swipes and 78 swats; those are difference-making numbers, especially at this stage of a draft. He also has much more potential, if coach Gregg Popovich opts to let him roll.
DeMarre Carroll, Toronto Raptors (ADP: 79)
Carroll doesn't swat shots or drop 3s at the same rate as Green, and there are some concerns about what his role will be in his new digs. Nonetheless, Carroll is good enough to score in the low teens, rack up 5-6 RPG, drop at least 2.0 3-PPG, chip in 1.5 SPG and contribute quality percentages. Like Green, he is a terrific mid-round hustle target and should be going a couple of rounds earlier than he is right now.
Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP: 94)
I'll preface this by pointing out the obvious that the Golden State Warriors have two of the great shooters in the history of hoops -- but last season, the Pelicans attempted 19.3 3-pointers per game (23rd in the NBA), while the Warriors attempted 27.0 3s per game (4th). Guess who is coaching the Pelicans this season? Alvin Gentry, who ran the Warriors' offense last season. Enter Anderson, who is healthy and has topped a 39.0 3-FG percentage three times as a pro. A big man who can score 2.7-3.0 3-pointers per game should go higher than this.
C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers (ADP: 105)
You can be sure that his ADP is going to skyrocket in the coming days and weeks after he racked up 30 points and 5 3s over the weekend in preseason action. The only thing standing between McCollum and a starting gig at the two is Gerald Henderson, who is a mediocre player and still recovering from a hip injury. And with the Blazers bereft of scoring talent beyond Damian Lillard, McCollum is going to get every chance to rack up stats this season. Go ahead and jump on the hype train; he is going to break out.
Upside value plays
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: 40)
This is right about where I have him ranked right now, but I know I am going to start reaching for him earlier and earlier. I fully expect Batum to return to form as 13-14 PPG scorer, who will give us a full stat line that will include 3s, boards, dimes, steals, blocks and good percentages. I'll be surprised if he isn't a top-25 player by season's end.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 44)
My colleague John Cregan wrote a terrific piece on rookie value and why history suggests we should slow our roll on their statistical expectations. Yet, I think KAT will be an exception to the rule. This goes beyond the fact that he is physically and mentally ready to ball at the pro level -- he is on a team that will give him loads of minutes and touches, and he is going to sport an excellent FG percentage and FT percentage to go with scoring, boards and blocks. This is a reasonable spot to target him, but we may end up regretting not securing him earlier by the time the season is over.
Robin Lopez, New York Knicks (ADP: 83)
Speaking of opportunity, the former Blazer was always on the DFS radar last season when he got enough minutes, something he will get plenty of in the thin Knicks frontcourt this season. If he averages a realistic 33 minutes per game, he'll be in the mix for 13 PPG, 9 RPG, 1.8 BPG, a 54 FG percentage and a 78 FT percentage.
Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets (ADP: 108)
With Josh Smith out of the picture and Dwight Howard battling chronic knee and back issues, the door is open for Jones to far exceed this ADP.
Late-round wildcards
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons (ADP: 131)
Leading up to the draft, I saw former Duke wing Justise Winslow as fool's gold and Johnson as the real deal. So, as a Pistons fan, I was thrilled that Stan Van Gundy had the same read and passed on Winslow for Johnson. Follow our lead in fantasy and pass on Winslow (ADP: 129) for Johnson, who already has been stuffing the preseason box scores.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (ADP: 133)
He should be on the short list of late-round targets if you need a 3-point specialist. Van Gundy is going to give him plenty of rope and plenty of 3-points shots.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks (ADP: 136)
I'm expecting a slow start, but I also think he will be a stud someday. I'll take a flier at this point of drafts to see if he surprises early.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers (ADP: 139)
The Pacers have limited him to 15 minutes per game, yet he has six blocks in three tilts. He has big-time upside and a pretty clear path to a starting gig.
Noah Vonleh, Portland Trail Blazers (ADP: 145)
So does Vonleh, who could average something like 12 PPG and 8 RPG to go with 1 3-pointer per game and 1 BPG, if he can carve out enough minutes in the barren Blazers frontcourt.
Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets (ADP: 157)
Per StatMuse, Bogdanovic averaged 15.9 PPG, 2.1 3-pointers per game, 3.6 RPG, 51.0 FG percentage and 91.7 FT percentage in the 24 games in which he took double-digit field-goal attempts. If he starts, he should have no trouble getting off 10 FGA.
Raul Neto, Utah Jazz (ADP >200)
I'm skeptical about the 23-year-old Brazilian's statistical upside as a rookie, but he may start at the point for the Jazz and is only now getting on the radar of fantasy drafters.