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Cregan's fantasy basketball awards: Green over Curry for MVP

Both Draymond Green and Stephen Curry take home hardware in John Cregan's fantasy awards, but it's Green who wins MVP. Noah Graham/NBAE/Getty Images

I don't need to re-remind you that Stephen Curry has logged a fantasy season for the ages. As such, I don't want this to be one of those end-of-the-season award articles where a fantasy columnist phones it in and presents you with a rehash of the obvious.

Here is my not-so-traditional version of the 2015-16 fantasy basketball awards, dishing out hardware for common categories, such as Comeback Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player, and for all-new categories or those not often featured, such as Rookie Superstar of Tomorrow Award and the Shawn Bradley Courage Award, among many others.

Spoiler alert: Curry is not my fantasy MVP.


Matz

Comeback Player of the Year (non-turnover league edition)

Rajon Rondo, PG, Sacramento Kings

The Kings didn't exactly put together one of the more inspirational NBA seasons in recent memory. But I'm hoping Kings fans can at least console themselves in knowing their team's brain trust laid the oddly misshapen framework that allowed Rondo to resuscitate his career.

Rondo closed 2014-15 at 133rd on the ESPN Player Rater. As of this writing, he's 29th, good for a 104-spot, 10 1/2-round improvement.

How did Fantasyland regard Rondo last Halloween? His ADP was 108.8.

The book on Rondo then: atypical production (can't shoot, but can rebound), coming off four consecutive injury-killed campaigns, switching teams twice in a season, entering his age-30 campaign.

In most cases, this is a recipe for a pending decline. Instead, Rondo turned in just the opposite: one of the more stunning turnarounds in recent fantasy history.

We can trace it to three factors.

One: durability. Rondo, entering a contract year, played more than he had in many seasons. Even with a shutdown, Rondo played 72 games (his most since 2009-10) while averaging 35.2 minutes a night (his most since 2012-13). The cynic in you could scream, "contract year," but results are results.

Two: diminished expectations. Rondo was dropped into a dysfunctional situation in Sacramento. Flammable personalities up and down the roster, on the coaching staff, within ownership, etc. (Not to mention that Rondo himself has had previous dust-ups with teammates and coaches.)

Coming off a down year statistically, no one expected Rondo to turn back the clock to 2012-13. But that's basically what Rondo did, averaging 11.9 points, 11.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals a night -- off an ADP of 108.8.

At his Celtics peak, Rondo provided elite production in three areas: assists, steals and rebounding (for a point guard). But Rondo has never been counted upon for free throw shooting (not an issue with only 2.1 attempts per game) or 3-point production (career 28.5 percent from deep).

Which brings me to factor No. 3.

Three: 3-point shooting. Rondo had a career year at the 3-point line. He shot a career-high 36.5 percent (perfectly acceptable for a point guard). He contributed 0.9 3-pointers per game, light years ahead of his career average of 0.3.

Despite his remarkable bounceback, Rondo's pending free agency makes it hard to peg his value headed into 2016-17. If he sticks in Sacramento, the team's constant state of roster turnover could affect his minutes. And if he goes somewhere else, the fit might not be so perfect (see: Rondo's stint as a Maverick).


Matz

Comeback Player of the Year (in-season edition)

LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs

This past preseason, I tabbed Aldridge as a sure-fire bust. He was leaving a statistically inflated situation in Portland for a new team with established stars and a coach not known for being fantasy-friendly. My preseason valuation pegged him at 33rd. So his ADP of 19.2 read way too high.

For about the first half of the season, Aldridge fulfilled his bust potential. It wasn't that he played particularly bad. It was just the anticipated drop in touches and consistency. As Aldridge is wont to do, he settled for too many long 2-pointers. He was a little slow to mesh. His January numbers: 16.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 0.4 blocks per game. By Aldridge's Portland standard, those numbers were downright anemic.

But since All-Star Weekend, the Spurs have increasingly looked like Kawhi Leonard and Aldridge's team. The dynamic of the offense has transitioned toward the kind of inside-outside combination Spurs fans have seen in the past -- only back then it was with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

Aldridge's March averages: 22.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 56.3 percent from the field and 90.1 percent from the free throw line. His strong finish fueled a rise back up the Player Rater to 30th, which is right about where I had him pegged back in the preseason.

With Aldridge, you can't sleep on his free throw production. It's a hidden strength, and the reason I'll probably bump him up to around 25 on my rankings heading into 2016-17.


Matz

1+1+1 Award

Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks

This goes to the player who provides the richest and most diversified out-of-position production. The 'tweener who defies positional statistical expectations to the point where his statistical portfolio defies position.

The kind of player capable of averaging at least one 3-pointer, one steal and one block per night. The kind of player who seems to suddenly up his production in whatever statistical area his team might require -- and who doesn't need to score a ton of points to register an impact.

Millsap has been perfecting this model for so long that I was forced to rename the award in his honor (apologies to Mr. Boris Diaw). Millsap's 2015-16: 17.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.9 3-pointers, 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks.

One example of Millsap's adaptive brilliance: the block party Millsap has thrown this month. Looking to key a playoff drive, Millsap has averaged 3.4 blocks a night during his past five games. In a key win against Boston, Millsap turned in one of the epic lines of the season: 31 points, 16 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 3-pointers, 2 steals and 5 blocks.


Matz

Shawn Bradley Courage Award

Marvin Williams, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets

This goes to the player who best overcomes early career disappointment to attain dependable fantasy value. (Evan Turner was a close runner-up.)

"The question for Williams going forward is if he can ever expand his production beyond points and rebounds." -- me, Oct. 2008.

I've been obsessed with Williams for the better part of a decade. For most of that decade, Williams was the Player Who Should Have Been Chris Paul. The player who was drafted ahead of a hometown hero, playing a position of need, which would go onto become the best in the NBA at his position.

That Marvin Williams. Marvin Williams, No. 1 overall bust. A talented player struggling to find his fit under the weight of massive expectations. But every now and then, Williams would put it all together for a week or two, and remind you of his dented potential.

Turns out Williams was a stretch 4 all along. Williams' 3-point production steadily increased the past three seasons before hyperdriving (Disney Synergy!) to elite in 2015-16. Williams is at a career-high 40 percent from deep this season, coupled with a career-high 4.7 3-point attempts per game -- which equals 1.9 3-pointers per game. Blend that with Williams' overall shooting performance (83.2 free throw percentage), and you get a gaudy 58.2 true shooting percentage.

But Williams' Courage award wouldn't have been possible without a second category: rebounds. Williams combined elite 3-point production with a career-high 6.5 rebounds per game, a huge improvement from the 4.9 boards he averaged in 2014-15.

It took Williams awhile, but he finally expanded his production beyond points and rebounds.


Matz

Kevin Martin Beer Goggles Award

Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

This is the award I present to the player who provided the most amount of what I call "empty points." A player whose high points-per-game average masks less-than-stellar aggregate fantasy value.

There are a couple of other players I could have given this to. DeMar DeRozan. Reggie Jackson. But I'm bestowing it upon Wiggins because I think he's one of the hardest players to peg going into 2016-17.

Let's look at 2015-16. Wiggins' 20.7 points per game is top-15 for that fantasy category. But points is only one category. And the rest of Wiggins' numbers (3.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.7 3-pointers, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 45.8 field goal percentage, 76.2 free throw percentage, 29.8 3-point percentage) need to fill out a little before he cracks top-40 status, let alone elite status.

Wiggins' 2015-16 ADP was 44.7. He finished 64th on the Player Rater. That adds up to a disappointing season -- even when averaging more than 20 points per game.

Wiggins is only 21 years old. He's on track to play all 82 games this season. He's finishing his sophomore campaign with a flourish. So I don't mean this to say Wiggins will always be an empty-points player.

But on a team loaded with young upside (and requisite touches that have to be shared), where would I draft Wiggins this fall? Wiggins will improve. But playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine and an incoming lottery pick, can Wiggins get the volume required to take a huge Year 3 leap? Or will he just refine his efficiency-based numbers and inch upward?

I wouldn't bite before the fourth round.


Matz

Waiver Wire Pickup of the Year

Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics

Crowder's late-season injury made this more of a horse race. Evan Fournier almost snuck by for the win. Crowder is a prime example of what can happen when a high-motor player gets dropped into a great coaching situation.


Matz

Rookie Superstar of Tomorrow Award

Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, New York Knicks

Porzingis gets the nod due to the fact that Towns is already a fantasy superstar. If it weren't for Towns, it'd be clear that Porzingis put up one of the better rookie campaigns in recent years.

Sure he got injured. Sure he was inconsistent. He's a rookie. And any rookie that cracks the top 50 on the Player Rater deserves some kind of award.

And don't sleep on runner-up Nikola Jokic. He's in an excellent position to make a pronounced sophomore leap.


MatzMatz

Most Improved Fantasy Player

(Tie) Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors; Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets

Spoiler: Curry isn't getting my MVP. He went No. 1 overall, and he's finishing at No. 1. (Outperforming your ADP carries a lot of weight in these awards.) But Curry's climb from an already rarified 21.34 Player Rater points to 23.21 points warrants some hardware, so my Academy fit him in with Walker.

Both players pulled off the trick of upping their volume and efficiency. Walker jumped from solid midround point guard to top-20 player. Curry jumped from No. 1 into the "historic" stratosphere.

I've been looking back during the past 10-12 years of my columns, and there is a case to be made that Curry has turned in the best fantasy season in the history of fantasy basketball. Peak Kevin Garnett (2004-06) is in the conversation. So is peak LeBron James (2007-09). But relative to the rest of his competition this season, Curry's 2015-16 could take the crown.


Matz

Most Disappointing Player of the Year

Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons

I don't mean to say Drummond disappointed me. Not personally. I didn't blow a high fourth-round draft pick (ADP 32) on Drummond. Because I knew that entering his first full season as full-time Alpha-Dog starter, Drummond was primed to deliver one of the great strangulations of free throw percentage in this history of fantasy basketball.

His averages this season: 16.3 points per game, 14.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 1.5 steals and 52.7 percent from the field.

But those were wasted due to him going 207-for-582 from the free throw line. That's Drummond's fantasy season in a nutshell.

Because it's not only that Drummond only hit 35.6 percent of his free throws. It's the volume of free throws Drummond attempted. His attempts per game rose from 4.5 to 7.3.

That's more than 50 percent more attempts. Now, couple that with the fact that Drummond regressed at the free throw line. He sank from a Ben Wallace-esque 38.9 percent to 35.6 percent. Heck, the year before Drummond shot 41.8 percent. More volume and less efficiency equals a lot of wasted double-doubles.

How bad was Drummond? The NBA is exploring changing the rules to shield young fans from the nightly and-1 horrors of Drummond and DeAndre Jordan.

I'm not employing hyperbole when I say that Drummond is on track to be the worst free throw shooter of all time. Even Shaq and Wilt cracked 50 percent for their careers. And even after an awful 2015-16 (48.9 percent) Dwight Howard's career percentage still stands tall at 56.8 percent.

I don't want to hear about how Drummond is better in points leagues, because he should be better than this. He should be better than 110th on the Player Rater.

Here's the thing: Drummond is not elite in a single category outside of rebounding.

Drummond's 52.7 field goal percentage is barely better than average. That's even factoring in his relatively high amount of field goal attempts per game (13.1) for a center.

Drummond's block rate is regressing. Even playing 2.4 additional minutes per game this season, his blocks dropped from 1.9 to 1.4. He's barely a top-20 shot-blocker.

The Player Rater doesn't lie. At an ADP of 32, Drummond was the 33rd-best center in fantasy basketball this year.

Free throws count, readers.


Matz

(Temporary) Sixth Man of the Year

Categorical Scarcity Maven of the Year

Hassan Whiteside, PF/C, Miami Heat

No other player provided more production per minute than Whiteside. He demolished his fourth-round ADP and flirted with top-10 value, all while having his role constantly come into question.

Exhibit A why Drummond's block performance looks so comparatively paltry? Go to the Player Rater and sort by "BLK."

Whiteside is No. 1 by a large margin at 7.50 block points. That's more than 50 percent better than second-place Jordan's 4.75 block points.

Rudy Gobert and Porzingis followed by Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez -- we are fantasizing in a golden era of shot-blocking. Drummond is all the way down at 17th.

But in a scarce category stuffed with top-heavy, elite production, Whiteside's 3.7 blocks per game lapped the field.

Whiteside gets two commemorative plates.


Matz

Most Valuable Player

Draymond Green, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors

Like I said, ADP counts for plenty around here. And Curry simply had nowhere else to go.

Green turned in a top-seven season off a mid-third-round ADP (25.7). He provided the most value relative to where he was drafted.

I remember watching Green and Kent Bazemore dominate the 2013 Summer League, thinking, "This is why pale fantasy dilettantes should go to Summer League."

You can't put too much fantasy stock into Summer League numbers (any, really). But the eye test means something. Dominance means something. And since that Summer League, I've been tracking (and winning off) Green's drive to true fantasy greatness as he's climbed the imaginary charts.

Green's averages (with one game to go): 14.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.2 3-pointers, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks. With Green, the volume-based potential was always there. But his rise into the top seven was fueled by his four-year climb in true shooting percentage.

Green went from a 40.4 true shoot percentage in 2012-13 to 49.8 percent to 54.0 percent to 58.6 percent. That's a rise from below-average player to All-Star. During the same period, Green's usage rate nearly doubled (12.9 to 19.5) and his player efficiency rating nearly tripled (7.15 to 19.35).

In both real-life and geeky fantasy terms, Green's story is unique. The fact that he could be the most valuable player (team-wise) on perhaps the best team of all time. The fact he can defend all five positions. That fact he (and Westbrook) have the potential to average a triple-double.

Like Curry, Green doesn't seem to have a ceiling. Both players are improving at Mach speed. As Green's usage rate and role in the offense mature, Green could be a top-four player.

My MVP is based on two factors; overperformance of ADP and fear. From a statistical viewpoint, Green is downright scary.