Each Monday this season, I've tipped the week off by posing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus "The Starting Five."
For the final week of the 2015-16 fantasy season, I had all our expert contributors join us as we look toward the 2016-17 campaign: ESPN NBA Insiders Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton, plus ESPN Fantasy analysts Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick, John Cregan and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
There is a lot of time between now and the start of the 2016-17 campaign, but name a player you think will take things to the next level and break out next season.
Doolittle: Usually these players don't magically grow markedly better over the summer but in fact started the breakout during the previous season. (Though offseason work certainly plays a part.) I think we saw Giannis Antetokounmpo begin to make the leap from good to great over the last couple of months this season. He's still at an age where the growth trends point steeply upward -- he doesn't turn 22 until December -- and the Bucks have already committed to keeping him as the primary playmaker. Since the break, Giannis has averaged 19.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.9 blocks, all while shooting 50 percent from the field. He's such a dogged worker that you figure he's only going to build on those numbers and, eventually, become at least an average outside shooter. If you can't tell, I'm a fan.
Kaiser: If the Phoenix Suns find a way to shed either Eric Bledsoe or Brandon Knight to clear the room for Devin Booker to play 35 minutes a night, he's one player I see with superstar potential. As the youngest player in the NBA this season, the rookie out of Kentucky exceeded all expectations as a scorer and shooter while exhibiting a confidence and swagger rarely found in first-year players. If I'm the Suns, I'm looking for any way possible to build around the young sharpshooter.
McCormick: My candidate -- Eric Bledsoe -- has missed roughly 29 percent of his career to injury, but he's also the only point guard on the Player Rater (using averages) with a positive rating in each statistical category this season. The risk is real -- Bledsoe has averaged 58 games per season -- but this should be baked into his price next fall. The upside is also real, as "Baby Bron" is just 26 and was on pace for career bests in scoring, assist percentage and 3-point production this season. Already an elite source for steals, Bledsoe quietly offers a Dwyane Wade-like block rate. The dude led the league with 11.7 drives per game (eight FTA/game past three seasons) this year and plays on a space-and-pace friendly franchise. The ingredients for a first-round return are in place.
Cregan: Jordan Clarkson is well-positioned to take a leap into the top-40 in 2016-17. In the Lakers' post-Kobe environment, Clarkson will get all the minutes and touches to build consistency. He's closing out strong (April numbers: 17.4 PTS, 3.8 REB, 2.6 3PTS, 1.6 STL). In light of (ahem) recent social media developments, Clarkson seems to be the Lakers' most stable fantasy investment headed into this fall's drafts.
Pelton: D'Angelo Russell. Russell was a more productive fantasy player as a rookie in games Kobe Bryant sat out, pushing his per-36 minute averages from 16.7 points, 4.2 assists and 4.3 rebounds with the Mamba to 18.2 points, 4.6 assists and 4.8 rebounds without him. Unless the Lakers land Ben Simmons in the draft or sign an elite free agent -- unlikely until 2017 -- Russell will be the guy next season, and while that might not produce a quality offense for the Lakers it should yield bountiful fantasy production.
Carpenter: I am looking for Victor Oladipo to take the next step and push up toward the upper ranks next season. Orlando Magic coach Scotty Skiles can be infuriating when he is fleshing out his lineups, but once he has confidence in a player, he is willing to lean heavily on him. It took a while but Skiles clearly trusts and believes in Oladipo, which has been reflected in his post-break averages of 19.4 PPG, 1.4 3-PPG, 3.7 APG, 5.1 RPG, 2.2 SOG, 47.4 FG% and 82.0 FT%. Oladipo turns 24 over the summer and should be stepping into his prime years with a versatile and key role for a Magic team that can move the ball and score. Put that together with a well-rounded stat line and Oladipo has top-15 upside.
Name a player whose production you think will recede next season, making him a bust candidate.
Doolittle: Dwyane Wade may be on the verge of his end-of-career stage, though barring a major injury it should be more of a smooth decline than the one of, say, Kobe Bryant. His PER has declined for five straight years now and he'll turn 35 during next season. We don't know for sure he'll even be in Miami as the Heat have some tough financial decisions to make. If Wade moves to another team, it'll likely be in a complementary role. If he stays in Miami, he'll face an even stiffer battle for minutes and touches, with the Heat rich in perimeter talent: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow.
Kaiser: You have to look at age, because Father Time is undefeated. This year, we finally saw Tim Duncan come down to earth, and next season I think it happens to Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki turns 38 this summer and will have completed 18 NBA seasons. Though he has held up remarkably well over the course of his career, I wonder how much longer he can keep that going. Truth be told, I won't have the guts to draft him next season.
McCormick: Rajon Rondo is 27th on the Player Rater after a revival campaign that saw him play the most minutes per game since the 2012-3 season en route to leading the NBA in assists and posting his best steal rate since 2010-11. My issue is that something has to give in Sacramento going forward with the near certain ouster of George Karl, who installed Rondo as the high-usage, ball-dominant leader for the fastest-paced team in the league. With some glaring negatives to consider in his fantasy profile -- 58 percent from the line and meager 3-point production -- I'm fading a volume-dependent player due for a shift in exposure next season.
Cregan: I'm a little worried about Al Horford. He's long been one of my favorites; an elite big who can deliver a ton of production without putting up a ton of points. But if he leaves Atlanta, he could be in for a LaMarcus Aldridge-type slide in 2016-17. In real-life terms, Horford would be a great fit in Boston ... anywhere, really. But his absorption into a less fantasy-friendly system (like Brad Stevens' spread-the-wealth approach) could dent his value.
Pelton: I'm tempted to say Steph Curry since even one season like this seemed impossible, but he could recede and still be the best player in the league. So instead I'll say Kyle Lowry, who put together a career year at age 29 (and turned 30 in March). Skinny or not, players just don't peak that late. Lowry has become increasingly reliant on the 3-pointer, and if his percentage slips from this year's career-best 38.8 percent, he could slide in terms of fantasy value.
Carpenter: Lowry. He arrived in shape, didn't miss a game until late March and turned in his career-best campaign, all of which will boost his ADP next season to unreasonable heights for a player who has had trouble staying healthy as a pro, has averaged 41.9 FG% and 35.6 3-FG% for his career and just turned 30 years old. I expect he will go a round or two earlier than the inherent risk of a falloff demands.
Name a player who you think could be an under-the-radar sleeper for 2015-16.
Doolittle: Terrence Ross has shown some subtle improvement as a supporting player for Toronto, which seems to do a solid job of developing young players. He's a borderline right now in terms of fantasy value. His per-minute numbers are pedestrian but look a lot better when he doesn't share the court with DeMar DeRozan, and the Raptors have killed it with him on the court for the most part. If DeRozan bolts during free agency, Ross will be well positioned to become an in-house replacement. It would be very interesting to see what he'd do with a full season as the primary running mate for Kyle Lowry.
Kaiser: One player I see with huge upside is Gary Harris, the young Denver guard who is wrapping up his second NBA season. Harris, the 19th pick in the 2014 NBA draft, played over 32 minutes a game this season and raised his shooting percentage to a very impressive 47.1 percent while making 1.4 threes per game. He isn't a big rebounder or distributor, but he gets steals (1.3 per game this season), hits the long ball and is an athlete who can score. I see him as an underrated and more durable version of Bradley Beal going forward.
McCormick: I would say Dennis Schroder since I even considered him for my breakout pick, but he'll be far too popular to qualify as a sleeper if Jeff Teague gets traded this offseason after being shopped at the deadline. I'll say Rondae Hollis-Jefferson instead. I think RHJ's elite steal rate (2.3 per 36 minutes) and helpful rebounding (9.2 per 36) production could play out well with increased exposure. There are tons of minutes to be had in Brooklyn next season in the early stages of a rebuild, while the market often sleeps on defensive driven assets.
Cregan: Let's stay in Atlanta. If Horford leaves, it will open up opportunities for others to step up. I could easily see Kent Bazemore establishing fifth-to-sixth round value in a revamped Hawks lineup. He's been trending up -- in fits and starts -- all season. He's got athletic upside reminiscent of his old Summer League teammate Draymond Green.
Pelton: Dennis Schroeder. Schroeder averaged 20.0 points and 7.8 assists per 36 minutes this season but didn't come close to matching those numbers on a per-game basis because his playing time was limited behind starting point guard Jeff Teague. I don't think both Teague and Schroeder will be on the Hawks' roster by the trade deadline, which means Schroeder will have a chance to start either in Atlanta or somewhere else. Look out if that happens.
Carpenter: I banged the drum all season long for Jusuf Nurkic, but injuries and some surprisingly good play from Nikola Jokic kept him from busting loose. However, the talent and potential for quality big-man fantasy stats remain. In fact, we've seen that reflected in some recent box scores. He is raw and turns just 22 in August, so he has a lot of work ahead of him, but I could see Nurkic forcing his way into a significant role in the Denver Nuggets' offense next season and becoming a double-double threat who can block shots.
In terms of the impact on fantasy value, which player or team are you going to be following most closely during free agency?
Doolittle: It's got to be Oklahoma City. If Kevin Durant leaves, it creates some interesting consequences. Russell Westbrook will be in a free-agent season next year and without Durant next to him, his numbers could be freakish. A Durant departure would also push Serge Ibaka to a higher tier, and maybe even someone like Enes Kanter, whose minutes would likely go up because the Thunder would need his scoring. He's averaged 22 points and 14 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so that'd be major news.
Kaiser: There's only one answer to this question, and that answer is Kevin Durant. His departure from Oklahoma City would increase Russell Westbrook's usage and cause the point guard's scoring numbers to skyrocket, and Durant would have a huge impact on the players on any team he signs with. If Durant signs with Golden State, which earlier rumors suggested he was interested in doing, it'd have a devastating impact on players like Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
McCormick: Aside from the obvious with Kevin Durant's unrestricted status, I'm actually interested in what the 76ers do with their mountain of cap space. This isn't just because I'm a sad Philly fan, rather I expect Brett Brown's up-tempo, fantasy-friendly scheme to still be in place for at least next season, making it an attractive destination for our purposes. Don't get me wrong; Philly is not in a position to lure top candidates to town, but if the Colangelo contingent intends to max-out someone like Harrison Barnes or Nicolas Batum for example, or even overpay Evan Fournier or Kent Bazemore, the sheer volume of touches, shots and minutes in that space and pace friendly system could prove significant for fantasy stock.
Cregan: Team-wise, I'll be interested to see if Brooklyn can entice any of the bigger-named players. The cupboard there is comparatively bare, and they'll give some incoming player all the touches he needs to up fantasy value. I'm also interested to see if Minnesota and /or Milwaukee bring in anyone to mesh with their young, fantasy-friendly upside.
Pelton: The Dallas Mavericks, who have several key free agents (most notably Chandler Parsons and Deron Williams, who will both presumably opt out of their contracts), tons of money to spend and a history of generating fantasy success at both point guard and center (where incumbent Zaza Pachulia is also a free agent and lost hold of the starting job late in the season). I'd take a hard look at whoever ends up next year's pick-and-roll duo next to Dirk Nowitzki.
Carpenter: Aside from the big fish in the free-agent pool, I want to see what happens with Hassan Whiteside, who will be unrestricted and free to sign with any team he chooses. Whether he re-signs with the Miami Heat or bolts for another franchise, his fantasy future will depend greatly on how big his presumptive role on offense will be and, because he has proved to be immature at times, whether he has the proper structure around him to stay focused on maximizing his amazing natural skills.
Assuming Stephen Curry is the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick next season, who will you take at No. 2?
Doolittle: Probably Durant, especially if he changes teams. There's a short history of upper-tier superstars changing teams during their prime, but it's an illustrious one. Guys like Moses Malone and Charles Barkley have hit the market at their respective peaks and responded with MVP performances during that first season in a new locale.
Kaiser: I'm going to have a very difficult time passing on Karl-Anthony Towns, considering what he did as a 20-year-old rookie this season. If you project his numbers to bump up slightly in year two, he's a better, more durable version of Anthony Davis as far as fantasy is concerned. If not Towns, my next choice would be James Harden, whose value is increased due to the fact that he plays shooting guard, the thinnest position talent-wise in the league. Having Harden gives you a big advantage at that spot.
McCormick: The Beard is still my choice behind the golden child. Just for validation of his special fantasy stock, Harden averaged 40.4 minutes in 25 games since the break. I'm not sure we need another stat after that, but he also slashed for 30.5 points, 8.6 assists, 5.9 boards, 2.1 steals and 2.8 3-pointers with influential and efficient volume from the line. I don't expect Harden's rich role to be compromised next year - if anything Dwight Howard's exit could open up the offense a bit.
Cregan: It's still Durant, unless he ends up playing alongside Curry in Golden State. No one's talking about this yet, but if Durant plays with Curry, there's a chance neither one of them ends 2016-17 at No. 1 on the Player Rater. We could be looking at another LeBron-to-Miami scenario.
Pelton: James Harden. Unless Kevin Durant leaves Oklahoma City, which would make both Durant and Russell Westbrook more productive fantasy players, I don't see any reason the pecking order will change. Harden might get a little more help on offense this summer, but he'll still be the driving force of the Houston Rockets' offense and may even get help in the form of better spacing with more shooting at power forward than this season.
Carpenter: Barring some offseason roster changes, I will have to stick with Durant after Curry. It's no secret that I am a junkie for great high-volume percentages, and Durant crushes it there: 50.4 FG%/19.2 FGA, 89.6 FT%/6.9 FTA. Those are the kind of backbone numbers around which you can build a roster - especially considering the manner in which he stuffs the rest of his box scores. Durant is stepping into his prime years and only Curry's crazy numbers outshine him in my book.