The road to greatness is rarely smooth. This is a good thing, because the bumps along that path drive the narratives that we journalists need for sustenance. The unexpected always makes good copy which is why a few debates have popped up across the NBA media landscape recently regarding the long-term impact of Minnesota super-rookie Karl-Anthony Towns as opposed to that of New Orleans superstar Anthony Davis.
Often these kinds of discussions are navel-gazers, but this one's pretty good. Not only has Towns bettered the historically elite rookie season Davis enjoyed just a few years ago, but along with Knicks wunderkind Kristaps Porzingis, these guys strongly suggest the path of the future NBA big man. That player will not only have the size of the traditional NBA big, along with the defensive chops that teams must have on that end, but he'll offer a complete offensive repertoire. He can score down low or driving on a pick-and-roll, he can run the floor, and he can step out and become a legit deep threat.
What makes the Towns-versus-Davis debate so alluring is that it's become a debate so quickly. Before the season, Davis was the consensus top overall fantasy pick in ESPN live drafts, while Towns came in at No. 48. But now, according to ESPN Player Rater, Towns has been the ninth-best overall player in the league, while Davis has slipped to No. 22.
There's a perception that Davis has had a disappointing season, and because disappointment is a concept entirely generated by perception (or at least perceived expectation), that's probably true. Before the season, Davis was commonly lobbied as a leading MVP candidate, which is bound to happen when you post a PER north of 30 at the age of 21. Instead, Davis' numbers this season remained steady, save for the introduction of the 3-point shot to his game. Meanwhile, the Pelicans were outscored with him on the floor as the lineups around him crumbled in a very real way.
Towns, on the other hand, hit the ground running in Minnesota and overachieved even the highest expectations analysts had for him at the outset. His PER (22.5) is better than the one Davis posted in his first season (21.7) and is the second-best by a big-man rookie aged 20 or younger. Only Shaquille O'Neal (22.9 in 1992-93) did better. Davis ranks third on the list.
All this said, fantasy leaguers aren't concerned with Davis' rookie numbers against those of Towns because it's all about 2015-16 results. And while Towns ranks ahead of Davis in Player Rater, that's partly a function of his perfect attendance in the games-played category, while Davis has more than a few absences. Davis' per-game numbers are better than Towns', and his PER for this season (25.1) is still a few clicks better than the rookie's (22.5).
While the common form of the Towns-versus-Davis debate relates to the question of long-term impact, that argument can only really be settled as the next few years play out. But that won't do fantasy leaguers much good, because when next fall rolls around, they have to decide whether Towns or Davis should be the first center picked. They can't wait until the results pour in, and it's not an easy question to answer. But let's try.