What would constitute a perfect fantasy basketball draft? Every round, nailed beyond numerical reproach.
Wait, strike that. What would be the greatest fantasy basketball draft of all time?
How could tireless preparation, absentee parenting and sheer shimmering luck combine to give me an imaginary '27 Yankees, '85 Bears or '16 Warriors?
I annually enter draft season with that unachievable improbability in mind.
How to get on the kind of draft roll that would mint you as a living legend in the minds of about 10-11 other people? Think of the e-book sales!
So -- how would this dream draft transpire?
Let's start with what we can control. First, don't whiff on either of your top two picks. (Or, if you're in an auction league, the big-money anchors of your lineup.)
This isn't the real NBA, where the value of a draft pick is neutered because of the relatively high probability of said rookie being an unknown quantity. The randomness of drafting 19- to 21-year-olds means many picks will achieve their safer predraft valuation.
But in Fantasyland, we are dealing with the entire player pool, which means the pressure not to miss early intensifies (in a pretend, not-actually-that-intense manner).
In fantasy, one can weather a miss -- maybe two -- in the mid to late rounds. But a squandered top-20 selection is tough to overcome. This usually boils down to avoiding players with checkered injury histories and free agents going to less fantasy-friendly environments.
Think of how hard it was to win this season with Anthony Davis (average draft position No. 1, player rater ranking No. 21) -- or DeMarcus Cousins (ADP 7, PR 25), Rudy Gobert (ADP 18, PR 95), LaMarcus Aldridge (ADP 19, PR 29) or Marc Gasol (ADP 20, PR 71).
Second, you have to build hidden strength via efficiency.
It's tough avoiding the temptation to chase volume (and points scored). But prioritizing little things like 3-point percentage and true shooting percentage (and assist-to-turnover ratio in a turnover league) gives your squad a built-in advantage for the long haul.
Third, look to develop roster flexibility.
You want a roster teeming with players who produce across multiple categories. Try to avoid specialists. And don't forget multipositional eligibility. The ability to shift players and stats to adjust to injuries, slumps and flameouts becomes vital as a season progresses.
But in the end? To achieve the perfect draft, a pretend GM needs to roll up gargantuan margins of draft overperformance. At the end of the season, you need the players' final accrued value to outweigh their draft valuation -- to extreme, garish, Red Auerbachian proportions.
In short, you must be ruthless and tireless in the acquisition of undervalued players.
It's not enough to draft players that meet their ADP expectation. That's the bare minimum. To win your league, you need to acquire two to four players who heavily outperform their draft valuation by three to five rounds. You need fifth-rounders who produce like second-rounders, a couple of endgame picks that deliver middraft production.
Or four to six players who overperform by one to two rounds. Late first-rounders who perform like top-three picks. Second-rounders who perform like mid-first-rounders.
But to put together an all-time great draft?
In my estimation, in a 10-team, 13-player league, you need to roll up an aggregate surplus of at least 550 picks in added value.
That's a big number.
It gets even bigger when you realize that overperforming players in the first few rounds might only outperform their ADP by a round or two.
(To get a quick feel for the weight of valuation to place on top picks, I still like to scan Jimmy Johnson's Draft Trade Value Chart. It's 25 years old, but it still helps put perspective on the value of shifting even a single first-round draft slot).
What would have been this season's dream draft? How would an owner have hit the fantasy basketball equivalent of Powerball? Let's turn the clock back to Halloween and play a little "what-if." And most importantly, think how said player is positioned headed into 2016-17.
Round 1: Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (ADP 2/PR 1)
On paper, Curry only outperformed his ADP by one slot. But you have to take in the way he lapped the field. His player rating of 23.31 was nearly five points better than fantasy's No. 2 in James Harden (18.43 points). To put that in perspective, Curry finished No. 1 in 2014-15 with 21.34 points but barely a point ahead of Harden (20.43 points).
What drives up the player rater? A simultaneous bump in both efficiency and volume. And In 2015-16, Curry (as you know) took an unprecedented leap in efficiency (31.71 PER) and usage (31.5 usage rate) for an age 28 season. This came (as you know) after another almost-as-unprecedented leap in his age 27 season (28.06 PER, 28.5 usage rate).
Come fall, Curry's going number in drafts is written in stone. But it would be preposterous to suggest owners gird for another unprecedented leap.
Age should begin to play a factor. Throw in that the Warriors' roster could be in for a minor overhaul (is Harrison Barnes worth a huge deal? Could Durant possibly team up?). Factor in the pressures of a probable three-peat campaign.
A more realistic debate would fall in the vicinity of "can Curry match 2015-16?" which would constitute the greatest two-year stretch in the history of fantasy basketball.
Honorable mention: John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (ADP 11/PR 6)
Round 2: Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (ADP 13/PR 7)
Curry's GOAT campaign took up a lot of oxygen this season. One story that deserved more love was Leonard's jump to unadulterated superstar.
Fantasy-wise, an overperformance of six spots might not seem that impactful. But you have to understand that in the upper rounds, six spots is a big jump. It's weighted. A six-spot overperformance in the top 20 is the equivalent of a 40 spot overperformance with an endgame pick.
What makes Leonard's improvement even more impressive?
One, that he made this kind of jump playing under (team-first, fantasy-second coach) Gregg Popovich. Two, it happened after adding another All-Star -- LaMarcus Aldridge -- to the Spurs' lineup. It makes one drool over what Leonard would be capable of in a less democratic system.
Leonard's statistical ascent was powered by a massive improvement in 3-point production. He nearly doubled his 3-pointers per game, going from 1.0 to 1.9. His 3-point percentage morphed from .349 to a Curryriffic .457. (Curry is currently at .459).
How big an improvement is that? In 2014-15, Leonard's overall field goal percentage was only .479.
For 2016-17, despite the Popovich factor, expect another small bump in Leonard's fantasy production.
As San Antonio's aging big three (Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili) continues to fade (or retire outright), more touches should head in Leonard's direction. This should coalesce with further refinements in Leonard's still-evolving game.
Leonard can't even rent a car in most states until he turns 25 on June 29.
Honorable mention: Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (ADP 28/PR 12)
Round 3: Draymond Green, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors (ADP 24/PR 9)
Green is my favorite kind of fantasy basketball star: ninth on the player rater in fantasy, 66th in points per game in the NBA. He doesn't need to score to deliver elite production.
Green is only 26 years old. And since his offensive game is still a work in progress, it's reasonable to expect hehasn't hit his ceiling. Plus Green gets to play alongside a certified basketball revolutionary in Curry. A transformational talent that creates the type of space that allows his teammates the room and opportunity to grow.
Like Curry, Green pulled off the trick of upping his usage rate (from 16.6 to 19.5) and his PER (16.43 to 19.37). There's no reason not to expect an incremental improvement as Green's role on offense expands.
Honorable mention: Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics (ADP 49/PR 19)
Round 4: Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (ADP 40/PR 20)
Lopez has come full circle. From 2010 to 2014, Lopez was one of the more overrated players in fantasy.
His gaudy-for-a-center point production (18.3 career PPG average) inspired countless owners to overpay for Lopez's services. But behind the points (and blocks) was an anemic-for-a-big-man rebounding rate (less than 7.0 rebounds per game from 2010 to '14).
Unfortunately, the lack of rebounding was a minor blip compared to Lopez's history of foot problems. The list of 7-footers who fought back from repeated foot surgeries to regain their previous fantasy All-Star form is both brutish and short. Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Lopez.
Lopez is nearly guaranteed Alpha Dog status in Brooklyn's offense next season. Brooklyn doesn't have a first-round pick. It's possible -- not probable -- they could sign one of this summer's bigger free agents. Even then, the odds are it would be a backcourt player or wing a la, say, DeMar DeRozan.
The lack of incoming marquee talent should leave Lopez with all the offense he can handle in 2016-17.
Round 5: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP 48/PR 8)
I don't need to hype Towns any more than I already have the past couple of weeks. He's posted one of the best fantasy rookie campaigns in memory. He's a top-five pick this fall. He has the potential to be a top-two player in his sophomore season, especially if he develops his 3-point shot.
Honorable mention: DeMar DeRozan SG/SF, Toronto Raptors (ADP 66/PR 32)
Round 6: Giannis Antetokounmpo, SG/SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP 59/PR 24)
Two teams are looking like the fantasy hotbeds in 2016-17; the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Both teams are loaded with young, improving upside. Both teams have well-defined rotations and a paucity of timeshares. Both teams are expected to improve but won't strain under the pressure of major postseason aspirations.
With Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker, the Bucks are stocked. Aside from not having hit their collective ceiling, the triumvirate also offers the flexibility that comes from both multicategorical production and multipositional eligibility.
And Antetokounmpo is the rare player who qualities at three positions.
Honorable mention: Greg Monroe, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP 60/PR 36)
Round 7: Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP 62/PR23)
Middleton nearly duplicates Antetokounmpo's diverse, multicategorical portfolio. He just adds in 3s where Antetokounmpo mixes in blocks.
One lesser-known part of Middleton's fantasy résumé; free throw production. Middleton posted a career year from the line, averaging 3.9 attempts a night, while hitting 3.5 (good for a Bill Sharman-esque .883 percentage).
Honorable mention: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP 85/PR 35)
Round 8: Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets (ADP 64/PR 16)
One my favorite overperformers in recent years found another gear in 2015-16. Walker always delivered value but was held back by subpar efficiency.
In 2015-16, Walker discovered the fountain of efficiency, ramping up his PER from a better-than-average 17.66 to an All-Star-rarified 21.02. As of this writing, his true shooting percentage is a career-high 55.5. Walker and Nicolas Batum (another perennially underrated player) have teamed up to create one of fantasy's best duos.
This is how much I enjoy watching them play; I'm a Wizards fan. Batum to D.C. would be about the best Durantless outcome a basketball-bruised Washingtonian could hope for. And part of me ... still kind of hopes Batum stays with Walker.
Honorable mention: Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings (ADP 149/PR 60)
Round 9: Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP 81/PR 34)
If Rubio isn't traded -- and Minnesota doesn't draft a point guard -- look for him to deliver top-30 value in 2016-17. No, I don't think his current percolation in field goal percentage is a fluke.
If you take one idea away from this very, very long column, I want you to remember that players aged 27 and under can still improve. Gambling a little on players who haven't entered their NBA prime is the time-tested way to outpace ADP.
Honorable mention: Marvin Williams, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets (ADP 162/PR 50)
Round 10: Marcin Gortat, C, Washington Wizards (ADP 92/PR 39)
Here's a reference that will go totally over the heads of you young people; Gortat is the Raef LaFrentz of the 2010s.
Pull up a chair, sonny. Take a gander at LaFrentz' first four seasons in Denver. These were also the first four seasons I played fantasy basketball. LaFrentz was a center who could always be had at three to four rounds below his actual value. He didn't score in bunches, but he did a little of everything else. (Then after he was traded to the Mavericks, he tanked. But that's a story for another day, whippersnappers.)
Gortat is that kind of center -- massively undervalued because of a lack of consistent point production. Like LaFrentz, Gortat is inconsistent, so you have to regard his value in the aggregate as opposed to the moment. He's the type of player who doesn't reveal how good he was until the final stages of the season.
Honorable mention: Evan Turner, SG/SF, Boston Celtics (ADP 143/PR 69)
Round 11: Rajon Rondo, PG, Sacramento Kings (ADP 113/PR 27)
Another way to find value? Acquire players who seem to be magnets for negative publicity. Bad press is a surefire way to drive down value by at least one to two rounds.
Another surefire method? Target players going from mediocre MPG roles on good teams to expanded roles on mediocre teams.
Another surefire method? Target players entering a contract year.
Rondo was 3-for-3.
Honorable mention: Will Barton, SG/SF, Denver Nuggets (ADP 154/PR 55)
Round 12: Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, New York Knicks (ADP 133/PR 41)
Porzingis nearly cracked the top 40 as a rookie. That's tough to do. It's even tougher when you're battling injuries and inconsistent shooting. Which portends well for Porzingis' 2016-17 fantasy value.
It's perfectly reasonable to expect Porzingis to improve in both volume and efficiency in 2016-17. He averaged only 28.4 minutes this season. He's shot only .421 from the floor. He's hit only 33 percent of his 3s. He's 20. What were you doing when you were 20? (I could tell you what I was doing, but this is a family website.)
Honorable mention: Nikola Jokic, PF/C, Denver Nuggets (ADP 160/PR 58)
Round 13: Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics (ADP 161/PR 48)
I saved the best for last. Despite missing a chunk of March, Crowder essayed the biggest overperformance of ADP of 2016-17.
Admit it, you probably didn't draft Crowder. I know I didn't draft Crowder in a single league. But I snapped him off the wire in multiple leagues the first chance I got. Even when he wasn't starting, I always thought a lot of Crowder, primarily because he's the kind of player who can single-handedly wreck an "under" bet with annoying levels of never-say-die hustle.
It's the same quality many players on this list employ. Draymond Green is a prime example. Kent Bazemore, too. For more on this brand of hustle, check out TrueHoops' epic chronicle of how Bazemore delivered Steph Curry to Under Armour.
Honorable mention: Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (ADP 173/PR 70)
A final thought: As rookies entering the league, only one player in this column -- Marvin Williams -- was overvalued by actual NBA teams. Many of these players were left undrafted until the second round or served time in the D-League.
Real-life NBA draft position is another factor resulting in a player being over- or undervalued in fantasy. The ramification of predraft buzz affects an NBA player's fantasy stock for multiple seasons, maybe the rest of his career.
Don't believe me? Six players went before Steph Curry in the 2009 draft. And it probably took until the middle of this season for most of us to understand Curry is affecting basketball at a Michael Jordan level.