Success during this final stretch of the season in fantasy basketball now requires access to Twitter and an ability to make instant adjustments to your roster. The Popovichian trend of resting stars and starters sweeps the league during the final 10 days of the season. Sometimes we'll know well ahead of time if a team plans to rest a given group of heavy-minute veterans, like how the Clippers deliberately rested several key starters a few nights ago. We also find plenty of late scratches just minutes before tip, as teams look to balance rest and recovery during this final leg of the marathon. Tracking lineups up until tipoff with ESPN Fantasy writer Joe Kaiser's NBA DFS list is one way for us to avoid losing games and instead maximize output.
These final days of the NBA campaign are effectively an extended version of Week 17 in the NFL -- with only a few teams battling for the final playoff berths in each conference. The Eastern Conference is essentially down to three teams -- the Pacers (83.5 percent chance of making the playoffs as of April 1), Pistons (79.4) and Bulls (34.5) -- fighting for two spots, according to ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds index. In the West, we find a nearly identical scenario with the Rockets (86), Jazz (82) and Mavericks (33.2) in the mix for the seventh and eighth seeds. We can likely trust the rotations for these contending teams, which can prove helpful in both daily fantasy and in the these final fickle days in season-long competition. With Deron Williams diagnosed with a sports hernia, J.J. Barea (available in 60 percent of ESPN leagues) makes for a compelling addition for those seeking assists and 3-point production.
Late into the season we find new names emerge with little fanfare, such as the Pelicans' Jordan Hamilton, who played for Krasny Oktyabr in Russia and for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers in the D-League over the past several months. Signed to a 10-day contract via the hardship exemption given the Pelicans' litany of injuries, Hamilton has averaged 26.5 minutes with a 21 percent usage rate and 20 fantasy points per game on DraftKings over the past four games. Hamilton is really just a streaming option (he's available in over 98 percent of ESPN leagues), but that's essentially what we covet in these fluid final days of the season.
The Raptors' Norman Powell also spent some time in the D-League but is now a starting fixture for a true conference contender. Powell has averaged 31.4 minutes and 26 fantasy points over the past four games, all starts. Powell is available in over 97 percent of ESPN leagues yet has 11 3-pointers made over his past four games, as of press time. These are just a few examples of emerging assets we can consider for the final stretch. It's undeniably still grinding time on the waiver wire for those chasing fantasy basketball championships.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup), and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories, and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Ratings roundup
For the final 10 days of the season -- well nine really since the entire NBA takes MLB's Opening Day off -- we find the Los Angeles Clippers distinguished as the lone perfect 10 rating. Los Angeles is one of seven teams with as many as six games over the final 10 days of the season and one of just three teams with as many as four home games. This is interesting since, as we've mentioned, the Clips, fixed at the four spot in the playoffs, have proven prone to resting their key starters for rest down the stretch. If we do see Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and DeAndre Jordan rest a few more games, we can be sure to invest in Jamal Crawford and Cole Aldrich in daily fantasy. Aldrich is widely available in fantasy leagues and has solid spot-starter upside whenever Jordan rests.
As for other plus setups around the association, the Warriors claim a nine rating thanks to several choice matchups, especially with the Grizzlies reeling on the glass and in rim protection ever since Marc Gasol went down. The Rockets are also in the nine club, with sweet matchups against uptempo offenses and soft defensive foes.
As for the avoidable finishes, the Knicks play just four games, with three coming against capable defensive opponents. It's a shame the Nuggets only play four games, as we focus on their surging backup point guard in our pickups section below.
Bounce-back and breakout
The Suns' Eric Bledsoe played just 31 games this season before going down with a serious knee injury. Bledsoe, who has been called "Baby Bron" as a nod to his physical prowess, is the only point guard in the Top 50 on the Player Rater with positive ratings in each statistical category this season. With his stock likely deflated heading into next season, Bledsoe is a key candidate for a bounce-back campaign and someone I would try to acquire on the cheap in keeper and dynasty formats.
As for an early breakout candidate for next season, how about the Hawks' Dennis Schroder? Only DeMarcus Cousins has a higher usage rate over the past month among players averaging at least 15 minutes per game over this stretch. Schroder's 32.8 usage rate is evidence of his aggressive offensive skill set, as he's productive on the drive and is producing a respectable 56.1 percent true shooting clip over the past month as evidence (which is better than that of Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis and Dwyane Wade, to mention a few high-usage peers). If Jeff Teague signs elsewhere in free agency, we can find out if Schroder can prove efficient with increased volume as Atlanta's starting point guard.
Player pickups: Identifying values in both ESPN leagues
We discuss undervalued assets available in at least 40 percent of ESPN leagues at each position.
Point guard: The Nuggets' D.J. Augustin (on a roster in 29.4 percent of ESPN leagues) is averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game on DraftKings over the past 10 games. As Denver's third guard, Augustin has an impressive usage rate around 22 percent and an impressive offensive rating of 120 over the past 10 games. Which essentially means he's successfully driving the offense as the ball-dominant complementary guard for Denver. ... It appears Toney Douglas (34.0) should see plenty of work to finish the Pelicans' lost season. With the team ravaged by injury, shares of Douglas and DFS bargains elsewhere on the roster could prove helpful. ... Patrick Beverley (30.3) has been mentioned for 44 consecutive editions of the Forecaster in this bargain section. That's likely an exaggeration, but he has flown under the radar for the entire season as James Harden's backcourt caddy. While he's playing a supporting role to Harden, a respectable blend of steals, blocks and assists should continue given Beverley's steady minutes.
Shooting guard: For some real 3-and-D support, Miami's Josh Richardson (22.0) has hit 59.6 percent of his 3-pointers over the past 11 (this included his 0-of-8 showing against the Lakers), producing a wickedly efficient true shooting percentage of 69.3 percent over this stretch. With a steal rate at 2.2 percent and a helpful 1.8 percent block rate over this small, yet impressive, sample, loading up on Richardson down the stretch is highly advisable.
Small forward: The Suns have been on a steady downward arc ever since Bledsoe went down, but we have found some useful fantasy assets rise from the rotation, namely stretch forward Mirza Teletovic (24.1). It's difficult to find value at the wing this late into the season, so shares of Teletovic, who has lofted at least 16 shots in three straight as of press time, could prove helpful as Phoenix faces the Rockets, Pelicans and Kings -- all teams that struggle to contain the perimeter -- to finish the season. On the same roster, P.J. Tucker is plays steady minutes and can contribute in steals, boards and assists thanks to increased usage of late.
Power forward: The Bucks' John Henson is averaging a career high 4.3 blocks per 36 minutes this season. The holdup is that Henson rarely tops 30 minutes in a given game, but he's been earning far steadier exposure over the past week. Henson has averaged 24.8 minutes and 15.3 points, 7.7 boards and 3.3 blocks over the past three games and could be a difference-maker in swats for the final frame of the season.
Center: The Kings run at the fastest pace in the league, which could help Willie Cauley-Stein continue his fun finish to the fantasy season. The rangy rookie has averaged 28.5 minutes and 31.7 fantasy points on DraftKings over the past four games. ... The Pelicans' injury woes also serve to highlight Alexis Ajinca (7.5), as he's seeing increased minutes and offensive touches with Anthony Davis shut down.