(Shhh. Hey, I'm glad you're here. Just keep it down.)
I want to talk about sleepers. But a sleeper only remains a sleeper if said sleeper remains relatively unhyped.
Which is why now is a good time to talk. Because by this point of the season, most casual fantasy basketball participants have moved onto other stages of their lives.
What makes a true sleeper? A lack of hype -- and no one is hyping much of anything right now. A couple of playoff races, Stephen Curry, a dash of Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant's final lap.
And yet nothing on Clint Capela, nothing on what Dwight Howard's departure might do for Capela's 2016-17 value.
For those of you not in the fantasy playoffs, this is winning time. The time when next year's imaginary championships are forged.
Many of 2015-16's late bloomers become 2016-17's sleepers. Ditto for players who might have missed chunks of the season with injury or players who get shut down early. Or players who play for coaches who can't seem to carve out a consistent rotation.
Let's dig deep.
1. Victor Oladipo, PG/SG, Orlando Magic
Oladipo's March line: 21.4 points, 5.0 REB, 3.3 AST, 1.3 3PT, 1.3 BLK, 1.9 STL, .518 FG%, .364 3PT%, .854 FT%.
Coming off his monster month, putting Oladipo on a sleeper list might feel like a bit of an oxymoron.
Thankfully Oladipo is coached by noted Fantasy Vortex Of Doom Scott Skiles. And true to form, Skiles' magic-8-ball-driven rotations yanked Oladipo's 2015-16 playing time all over the map. Remember when Oladipo was benched for Channing Frye? Skiles in a nutshell.
The result: Oladipo has a Skiles-depressed seasonal scoring average -- just 16.0 points per game. And remember, the casual fantasy participant is a points-driven creature. So Oladipo's still a mild sleeper.
(To be fair, I've always liked playing as Skiles in "NBA Jam.")
2. Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves
Over his past 15 games, Oladipo ranks 12th on the Player Rater. Dieng clocks in at 18th.
You (hopefully) don't remember, but I pushed Dieng at "Big Short" levels in the preseason. His 2014-15 numbers (9.7 PTS, 8.3 REB, 1.7 BLK, 1.0 STL) screamed "sleeper."
I love Dieng. He's the kind of producer who drives fantasy championships. Meaning: players who camp out just below elite in two to three categories who can be had for a comparative song.
I knew Dieng could co-exist with Karl-Anthony Towns. It just took coach Sam Mitchell a couple of months to catch up.
Dieng's November line: 8.1 PTS, 6.3 REB, 1.3 STL, 0.9 BLK, .529 FG% -- and in only 21.2 minutes per game.
Mitchell ladled out dollops of Dieng's well-earned playing time to the likes of Nemanja Bjelica and Adreian Payne. Aside from being difficult to type, this frontcourt rotation stank with pure fantasy timeshare death. (Out of respect, I'm leaving Kevin Garnett out of this).
Cut to February: 14.3 PTS, 9.0 REB, 1.1 BLK, 1.1 STL, .580 FG%, 35.5 MPG. March: 11.6 PTS, 7.6 REB, 1.9 BLK, 1.5 STL, 536 FG%, 31.4 MPG.
Barring Minnesota drafting a big man, Dieng should clock in around 12.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.5 blocks a game in 2016-17.
Dieng's secret sauce? Steals production. A center who can give you 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals is a rare numerical commodity.
Minnesota is going to be a sleeper-riffic squad next season. I don't know how the Wolves will fare in reality, but in fantasy, they're building something special. The Timberwolves are absolutely loaded with young upside and don't play too many players (a la Boston).
At the same time, they don't get a lot of hype because they (A) play in Minnesota and (B) are on pace to lose 55 games.
As a matter of fact, while we're here, let's pause to discuss ...
3. Zach LaVine, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
LaVine's Player Rating in 2015: 5.99. Good for 37th.
LaVine's March: 19.1 PTS, 2.6 3PT, 1.1 STL.
Like Dieng, LaVine's been on fire since the All-Star break. Also like Dieng, one factor that could dent LaVine's momentum headed into 2016-17 is the draft.
I get nervous about LaVine because his potential value is points and 3-pointer based (with a dash of steals). It would be nice to see him register an uptick in a couple more categories.
Another reason I'm rooting for LaVine? Minnesota hasn't had a dominant fantasy shooting guard since J.R. Rider. From an analytical perspective, the Timberwolves are due at 2-guard. Also, I am old.
4. Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
So Rubio could be traded. It doesn't appear as likely as it did a month ago, but I hope it doesn't happen. From a fantasy standpoint, things are statistically gelling in the Target Center.
Over the past two weeks, Rubio has been the fourth-best player in all of fantasy. The key has been a steadily improving outside shot. Allow me to quote ... myself. (From Tom Carpenter's most recent Starting Five):
"The only thing standing in the way of top-30 status for Rubio (already elite in steals and assists) was a relatively non-terrifying 3-point shot. It's not enough for Rubio to raise his field goal percentage to the point where he isn't a liability. For Rubio to become an elite fantasy point guard, he also needs to raise his shot volume. But most importantly, he needs to be hitting one or two 3-pointers a night because he doesn't have the range or athleticism to become a consistent scoring threat inside the arc.
"That's why I'm looking hardest at the bump in his 3-point percentage. It's at about 40 percent for the month, up from the 32 percent career average he has traditionally logged. Here's the thing: He has posted these temporary bumps in the past. But I love Rubio's potential, so I'm hoping this marks the beginning of a permanent improvement in 3-point efficiency. If he closes strong from outside, and he isn't dealt in the offseason, I like Rubio as a sleeper for 2016-17."
5. Ryan Anderson, SF/PF New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are another two- to three-sleeper team that's in line for a bounce-back in 2016-17. The question is: Will Anderson stick around?
Anderson is entering his prime and is an unrestricted free agent. But he's also had a career-long issue with remaining on the court. Anderson's games played since his rookie year: 66, 63, 64, 61, 82, 22, 61, 66 (as of this writing). Also as of this writing, Anderson is a shutdown candidate.
In this case? Fantastic! Players with checkered injury histories have proved some of fantasy's greatest sleepers: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (foot), Steph Curry (ankle), Kyle Lowry (poutine). All of these players overcame early-career issues to become durable, dependable fantasy stalwarts.
Anderson's 2015-16 average of 2.0 3s a game is a dip from his 2.7-3.0 3s of seasons past. But Anderson still packs elite stretch-4 potential.
Most importantly, he is an unrestricted free agent. Does Anderson decamp for fewer minutes on a playoff team? Does he look for an expanded role on an up-and-comer? Aside from injury risk, Anderson's fantasy potential for 2016-17 is all about the destination.
(By the way, Jrue Holiday is another injury-dented sleeper.)
6. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets
Batum is also entering unrestricted free agency. Unlike Anderson, Batum is healthy and in full-on contract push mode. He's also leading a playoffs charge. The Hornets are a little under the radar, but they're one of the hottest teams in basketball.
Batum's PR15: 10.26. That's good for 15th overall.
Batum's peaking right now, but he's been a solid investment all season, posting top-30 value off an average draft position of 42.5. He personifies my definition of a sleeper: a player who manufactures value in subtle ways that go beyond scoring.
Batum turns 28 in December, so some very smart team is going to pay him. Looking at the market, it should be max money. As with Anderson, the key to Batum's 2016-17 is the destination.
If he stays in Charlotte, Batum is a top-20 player. The Hornets are agog with sleepers. Every season, like clockwork, I draft Kemba Walker in the fifth or sixth round. Walker won't be had for cheap next season, but he'll still be undervalued. Walker and Batum are mild sleepers.
If you're looking for a Hornet who could be a deep sleeper ...
7. Marvin Williams, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets
Williams' transformation from lottery bust into role-playing stretch-4 is one of my favorite statistical stories of 2015-16. The season averages aren't eye-popping: 11.5 PTS, 6.6 REB, 1.9 3PT, 1.0 BLK, 0.7 STL, 29.1 MPG.
But if you look closer, Williams has rocketed in efficiency. His player efficiency rating in 2014-15: 11.79; in 2015-16, it was a career high 16.64. The key has been the rise in 3-point production. In 2015-16, Williams went from replacement-level 3-point production (career: 0.8 3PT at .352 3PT%) to borderline elite (1.9 3PT at .402 3PT%).
If Williams sticks in Charlotte, and in the 28-30 MPG range, he'll make a great endgame pick.
8. Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets
Young's one of the prime beneficiaries of the Nets' contract-shedding mindset. As one of the last men standing in Brooklyn, Young's been on an unreported tear in March (15.6 PTS, 9.0 REB, 1.4 STL, 0.9 BLK, .532 FG%).
Young's hidden fantasy strength lies in atypical areas. He's a tweener SF/PF. He gets steals but doesn't shoot 3s or get to the line.
But if he isn't traded, and Brooklyn spends 2016-17 in rebuild mode, Young will be in perfect position to exploit his sleeper status. Remember that the Celtics have Brooklyn's top-shelf 2016 lottery pick. Help might not be on the way for some time.
9. Josh Richardson, SG, Miami Heat
Every season, there are two to three swingmen who get hot late and inflate expectations for next season -- Devin Booker, for example. Richardson is another player who's shot his way into sleeper buzz.
Richardson's past five games: 14.4 PTS, 1.2 STL, 2.6 3PT, .591 3PT%. For March: 12.8 PTS, 1.1 STL, 2.4 3PT -- and a 3PT% of .635.
Over the course of a March spent en fuego, Richardson has proved to be the rare player whose 3-point percentage can outperform his overall field goal percentage. (Kyle Korver is another example).
The Heat's roster is in line for some reshuffling this offseason. But Richardson's shooting doesn't feel like a fluke. If he sticks around 26-30 MPG, Richardson could be another Danny Green or Korver. (As in 2014 Green or 2015 Korver.)
10. (tie) Marcus Morris, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons; Markieff Morris, SF/PF, Washington Wizards
The split of the Morris twins proved one of the better fantasy sleeper storylines of 2015-16. On the rise in Phoenix, Marcus was dealt to Detroit, seemingly violating a handshake deal to keep the brothers together.
Marcus immediately flourished in Detroit, filling their longstanding hole at small forward. Markieff had a monthlong conniption fit and was benched.
Then at midseason, Phoenix swapped coaches and showcased Markieff for a trade. Markieff went numerically nuts (in the good way). As a result, he was traded to the Wizards, which means I've been watching a lot of Markieff Morris since the deadline.
Since the deadline, both Morris twins have been building momentum headed into 2016-17. Both players have a multicategorical, multipositional portfolio. Both should go a round or two too late in next year's drafts.
Lightning round
11. Otto Porter, SF, Washington Wizards
12. Myles Turner, PF/C, Indiana Pacers
13. Mirza Teletovic, SF/PF Phoenix Suns
14. Ish Smith, PG, Philadelphia 76ers
15. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers
16. Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets
17. Julius Randle, PF, Los Angeles Lakers
18. Clint Capela, PF/C, Houston Rockets
19. Shelvin Mack, PG, Utah Jazz
20. Boban Marjanovic, C, San Antonio Spurs
21. Ed Davis, PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers
22. JaMychal Green, PF, Memphis Grizzlies
23. Willie Cauley-Stein PF/C, Sacramento Kings
24. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Boston Celtics
25. Bobby Portis, PF, Chicago Bulls