Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus "The Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN Fantasy analysts John Cregan, Jim McCormick and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
Not only has Ricky Rubio missed no games since the end of November, but also, his field goal percentage has risen each month -- up to a respectable 45.6 percent in March. Do you think he will carry this momentum into next season?
Cregan: The only thing standing in the way of top-30 status for Rubio (already elite in steals and assists) was a relatively non-terrifying 3-point shot. It's not enough for Rubio to raise his field goal percentage to the point where he isn't a liability. For Rubio to become an elite fantasy point guard, he also needs to raise his shot volume. But most importantly, he needs to be hitting one or two 3-pointers a night because he doesn't have the range or athleticism to become a consistent scoring threat inside the arc. That's why I'm looking hardest at the bump in his 3-point percentage. It's at about 40 percent for the month, up from the 32 percent career average he has traditionally logged. Here's the thing: He has posted these temporary bumps in the past. But I love Rubio's potential, so I'm hoping this marks the beginning of a permanent improvement in 3-point efficiency. If he closes strong from outside, and he isn't dealt in the offseason, I like Rubio as a sleeper for 2016-17.
McCormick: I've always found the gap in Rubio's proficiency at the free throw line and from the field a bit odd. Rubio sports an 81.5 percent career clip from the stripe but just 37 percent from the field. That said, his improvement in shooting efficiency seems to stem from increased effectiveness from within 3 feet of the rim this season, where Rubio is shooting a career-best 52.3 percent after entering the season with a career rate around 47 percent from that distance. Rubio is currently hot from beyond and is hitting 39.6 percent of his 3-pointers in March, but the larger sample, which shows him to be a 31.7 percent 3-point shooter, is still troubling. With career clips of 26.4 percent from 3-to-10 feet and 28.1 from 10-to-16 feet from the basket, I think lowly shooting percentages will always be an anchor for Rubio's stock, albeit one lightened if he can continue to improve as a scorer off the drive.
Carpenter: I am skeptical about Rubio suddenly turning into a reliable scorer for the long term. His 38.3 FG percent this season is a career high, and he has shot 31.7 percent from beyond the arc for his career. A genuine season-long spike up to 45 percent and 37 percent on 3-pointers is unrealistic, and therefore, it's also unrealistic to think he will suddenly garner enough shots to score in, say, the middle teens. That said, if Rubio could get up to even 42 percent and 12 pointers per game, combined with his terrific assists, steals and free throw rate, he could be a top-25 option next season. That is realistic.
We are down to the final few weeks. Should fantasy owners cut or hang on to quality players dealing with lingering injuries? Where do you draw the line?
Cregan: If you're in a playoff fight or a final push in a roto league? You have to be ruthless and maximize the games you have left. If there's a hot, uninjured player on the wire who can replace your dented star, thank your dented star for his imaginary service and cut him loose.
McCormick: It's very contextual, in that if you have roster space to stash injured or resting stars, go for it, but I just had to cut Tim Duncan in a competitive league because he was ruled out for Saturday's tilt with the Thunder and tonight's contest. I didn't have the roster spot to accommodate the lost games. That's not an ideal example, as there are bigger names, such as Pau Gasol, who could prove truly vexing down the stretch. In weekly leagues, we often need to maximize games played to establish an edge, so at this point of the season, opportunity cost rises. We still have 17 days or so of playoff action in ESPN leagues, so I think it's a bit early to start cutting top-50 caliber assets for games missed, but I would trend on the side of being aggressive and proactive to maximize games played.
Carpenter: What is the worst thing that can happen from dropping a good player right now? Your opponent picks him up and uses him for the final couple weeks, minus the games you expect that player to miss. Does that value outweigh the stats you will garner by streaming hot players with good matchups each day? If you feel the answer to that question is "no," move on. Empty roster spots will get you nothing.
Chris Paul turns 31 in early May but has shown no signs of slowing down statistically and currently ranks fifth on the Player Rater. Do you feel comfortable with drafting him in the top 10 next season?
Cregan: I wouldn't feel comfortable with it, but I could easily envision building a draft strategy around snaring Paul somewhere in the 8-12 range. Assist-dominant, elite point guards are in short supply (Westbrook, Rondo, Wall). Paul is defying his earlier injury-plagued trajectory. You also need to remember that Paul has a special skill set that could age reasonably well into his age 32-33 seasons. It's just a question of him staying on the court.
McCormick: I don't think top 10 is realistic. I certainly think he's an elite second-round asset, but the top crop only got bigger this season, as Karl-Anthony Towns and Kawhi Leonard are first-round fixtures in most formats going forward. It's also about the splits with and without Blake Griffin's high-usage profile on the court; Paul has averaged 21.5 points, 10.5 assists, 4.5 boards and 48.5 fantasy points (using DraftKings' scoring key) without Griffin in 39 games this season, compared to 17.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 38.9 fantasy points in 26 games with Griffin this year, per Rotoviz. Griffin was ranked in the top 12 in usage rate when he was active and is a ball-dominant, low-post force. This is not a slight on Griffin's game but the reality of the game played with one ball. With Griffin expected to return to action, Paul is likely the 14th or 15th player on my board for 2016, so this is still an entirely elite commodity, but he's no longer a first-rounder for me.
Carpenter: I think he will end up being taken right on the turn next season, and given the general desire to lock up a scoring point guard, I wouldn't be surprised to see his ADP at around No. 8. He won't be any riskier than someone such as Kyle Lowry (an injury-prone 30-year-old point guard), Hassan Whiteside or Demarcus Cousins.
Chandler Parsons underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee last week. He had microfracture surgery on the same joint in May, and the recovery limited him for the first half of this season. What is your level of concern for his durability next season?
Cregan: High. Microfracture surgery isn't as scary as it was back in the early days of say, Amare Stoudemire, but if it leads to ongoing issues (even a meniscus, which could be somewhat unrelated)? Watch what happens in free agency. With all the cash floating around this summer, one would expect Parsons to opt out and chase a max deal. If he gets close to max money, it means a team is reasonably secure regarding the knee issues.
McCormick: I didn't have any shares of Parsons this season, given the durability risks heading into the campaign. I also don't find his statistical offerings special enough to assume the risk/reward ratio. Both Parsons and Danilo Gallinari exist in a similar value tier for me; talented scorers and stretch forwards when at their best, but they come with streaky shooting stretches and legitimate injury history. I understand Parsons will be a valued commodity on the real NBA open market if he chooses to opt out this summer, but I view him as a fringe fantasy starter, given that guys such as Trevor Ariza often go cheaper each season yet offer similar if not stronger profiles.
Carpenter: Combine this surgery with last year's procedure and the fact that he has never played more than 76 games in a season, and I view him as a major injury risk going forward. That is particularly true, because his stats lay out, and he needs to be a workhorse to truly pay off as an impact fantasy player. A heavy workload for a player with an injury history is a big concern. I see myself letting him slide past any reliable player before investing a draft pick in him.
Name a player available in more than half of ESPN leagues whom you recommend adding for the stretch run.
Cregan: If you need blocks and boards, I like what Amir Johnson has done since Jae Crowder's injury.
McCormick: A player I think could be available even in some competitive formats is Josh Richardson. The Heat are one of just seven teams, I believe, that have as many as 10 games left on the schedule. Richardson is a 3-and-D asset who can provide support from beyond the arc and in the steals department. The Heat are running Richardson out for nearly 25 minutes each game, with the upside for even more exposure and usage if or when Dwayne Wade rests over the final frame.
Carpenter: D.J. Augustin is available in 58 percent of ESPN leagues and is rolling right now. He also has four games this week with favorable matchups: Mavericks, Grizzlies, Hornets and Kings. His schedule is tougher next week (Thunder, Spurs, Jazz and Blazers), but Augustin is an excellent addition for the short term.