If you're not already aware, I'm the human who creates the fantasy football player projections here at ESPN.
Although some would swear the projection numbers are totally automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not. I have a lengthy process that involves statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this piece truly comes in handy. To begin each NFL season, I go team by team and thoroughly analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, on the player level, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player.
I recently completed that process and -- same as in recent years -- took notes. Below are my observations, as well as a brief application to fantasy football in 2022.
Be sure to also check out our sortable player projection page (the 17-game season has been applied) and my detailed 2022 NFL projection PDF guide.
1. Last season was the first in NFL history with 17 regular-season games. One of my first tasks during this process was to see how many players actually made it through all 17 games. As you might imagine, it wasn't many.
Eleven starting quarterbacks made it through 17 games, and eight more appeared in at least 15 games. Thirty-one quarterbacks appeared in at least 70% (12+) of his team's games.
Only 17 running backs were active for 17 games, though five of them were fullbacks. Of the 12 tailbacks, only four were the clear lead back for their team for all or most of the season (Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor and Devin Singletary). Yikes. I also looked at my final player projections from 2021 (released just prior to Week 1). Of the top 40 projected RBs, nine played 17 games, four played 16, four played 15 and three played 14. One more incredible stat: Only three tailbacks have appeared in all 33 regular-season games over the last two seasons (Taylor, Singletary and Darrel Williams). The aforementioned RBs, as well as the likes of Javonte Williams, AJ Dillon and Sony Michel, played all 17 in 2021 but can't be counted on to do so in 2022.
At wide receiver, we saw 39 players appear in 17 games. Roughly 15 of those receivers were "fantasy starters," as the list includes depth receivers like Trent Sherfield and Ashton Dulin. Of my top-50 projected wide receivers, only 15 appeared in 17 games and a total of 34 appeared in at least 14 games.
Tight end had 26 players reach 17 games, though only eight had a target share above 9%. Of those eight, six (Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz) were top-10 finishers in fantasy points. Of my top-30 projected tight ends, nine made it through 17 games and 21 appeared in at least 15 games.
As pointed out in previous years, I don't project any players to appear in 100% of regular-season games and these numbers should help explain why.
2. I have a little more research for you before I start getting into the team/coach/player-level tidbits. Yards per pass attempt is not the best stat to evaluate quarterback performance, but finding avenues to projected YPA is useful for the projection compilation process. I did a little digging on how exactly to do that and one of my revelations was how strong regression to the mean affects YPA on the player level each year. Check this out (and keep in mind that I'm including only players who dropped back to pass at least 200 times both seasons):
Since 2010, 29 QBs have posted a YPA of at least 8.2 and played significant snaps the next season. Of the 29, 28 had a lower YPA the second season (exception: Aaron Rodgers 2010-11) and only three reached 8.3 the second season. In 2021, Joe Burrow (8.9) and Jimmy Garoppolo (8.6) were over 8.2 and are obvious candidates for a big dip in 2022.
On the other end, 36 QBs have had a YPA of 6.7 or lower and played significant snaps the next season. Of the 36, 28 had a higher YPA the second season, which includes all 11 who were below 6.3. The notable regression to the mean candidates from 2021 include Jared Goff (6.6), Sam Darnold (6.2), Zach Wilson (6.1) and Trevor Lawrence (6.0).
Note that while quarterbacks rarely hang near the extreme, the "good" quarterbacks in the category still tend to out-produce the "low-end" ones. The QBs with the top-36 YPAs in our sample averaged an 8.5 YPA in the first season and 7.7 in the second. The QBs with the bottom-36 YPAs in the sample averaged a 6.3 YPA in the first season and 6.9 in the second.
OK, let's get to the player level tidbits ...