It's feeling increasingly risky to make any bold statements as the trade market snowball rolls further and further down the hill, gaining in both size and momentum.
With Timo Meier established as a member of the New Jersey Devils, the biggest domino of the deadline has fallen. But there are others only a little less in stature still to come.
Meier is an offensive star, generating more than his fair share of chances at the opposition net. Over the past three seasons combined, only David Pastrnak, Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews have generated more individual Corsi for than Meier, and only Pastrnak and Ovechkin have generated more individual Corsi for per 60. He leads all NHLers this season in Corsi for per 60 at five-on-five. He truly sits in the stratosphere among NHL players when it comes to driving plays.
He joins a Devils team that has been focused on doing just that this season. The Devils led the league at times in Corsi for per 60, but have settled in as fourth in the league right now.
Where Meier settles into the lineup is a happy problem for New Jersey, as they have a one-two punch down the middle with Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. My inclination would be that we'll see Hischier get first dibs, if for no other reason than Meier and Hughes together is a bit of a hat on a hat situation. While Meier ranks third in individuals Corsi for per 60 overall this season, Hughes ranks eighth. It might be better for the Devils to keep them separated when they can to lift all boats.
But that's what this move does regardless of where Meier slots into the Devils lineup: it lifts all boats. If Hughes or Hischier don't play with Meier at even strength, they certainly will on what is now an even-more dangerous power play that also features Dougie Hamilton on the point.
You'll see Hughes, Meier, Hischier and Jesper Bratt all make a jump in the rankings this week. But depending on how the lines work out, there could one fringe winger that gets a massive boost. Watch for Tomas Tatar, Dawson Mercer or Ondrej Palat getting time with a Hischier-Meier or Hughes-Meier pairing.
Going back the other way, the San Jose Sharks, for their part, are a wide-open field of opportunity, but Fabian Zetterlund and Andreas Johnsson are unlikely to move the fantasy needle this season.
Other deals over the weekend saw Nino Niederreiter get a chance to be a top-six winger in a much better setting in Winnipeg, while Ivan Barbashev get the same opportunity in Vegas. Those two deals along with the Meier trade, as of Sunday evening, are the latest to have the most potential fantasy impact. That said, don't overlook Vitali Kravtsov moving to the opportunity-rich environment of the Vancouver Canucks and we'll have to see how the Dallas Stars opt to use Evgenii Dadonov, a player three years removed from being an effective top-line winger. Kasperi Kapanen also waltzes into a St. Louis Blues dressing room suddenly short on top-six forwards.
But there are more fantasy trades with more impact still on the horizon, as Jakob Chychrun, Patrick Kane and Karlsson are still very much on the block.
Forward notes
Elias Pettersson, C/W, Vancouver Canucks (up six spots to No. 4): On another level for the past month, Pettersson is looking more and more like the player we expected him to be two seasons ago after his explosive first two seasons. The doldrums he went through for 2020-21 and the first half of last season are well behind him now. In the past four weeks, only Connor McDavid has more fantasy points among skaters.
Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights (up 15 spots to No. 65): He's been slipping down the ranks lately as the punch on the Knights wings has been struggling. This boost isn't all from Ivan Barbashev, as it's yet to be proven that Barbashev is a surefire top-line winger. But this boost is on the assumption that the Knights are going to do something before the trade deadline to give Eichel something to work with in addition to Barbashev.
Patrick Kane, W, Chicago Blackhawks (up 17 spots to No. 69): Yeah, as if we needed a reminder that an inspired Kane can be a huge difference-maker for a contender, he ripped off seven goals and three assists in four games before sitting out to reflect on his trade status. Whether he ends up with the New York Rangers, Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights or another team in the playoff hunt, Kane is going to be hungry -- and a hungry Kane is a fantasy-friendly Kane.
Ryan O'Reilly, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (up 10 spots to No. 172): The hat trick certainly delays the Leafs deciding to use O'Reilly as the No. 3 center, rather than the No. 2 with John Tavares on the wing. And until that move happens, he remains a fantasy threat as a member of the top six.
Tom Wilson, W, Washington Capitals (up 23 spots to No. 198): The old gang is back together! The Capitals have been playing Wilson with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov for the first time with regularity this season. There is big potential here as this was one of the best lines in the NHL early last season, and they still managed to finish the year tied for 10th in goals by a line (MoneyPuck).
Ryan Hartman, C/W, Minnesota Wild (up 39 spots to No. 213): Back in his rightful place between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, Hartman has finally started picking up some fantasy points this season. Specifically, he has 2.9 fantasy points per game (FPPG) over his past five contests thanks in part to three goals and three assists as part of the top line.
Nino Niederreiter, W, Winnipeg Jets (enters top 250 at No. 216): The assumption here is that Niederreiter will immediately slot into the top-six-role vacated by the injured Cole Perfetti and currently being kept warm by a combination of Mason Appleton and Sam Gagner. Ice time with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor (or any combination of the Jets top six) is a lot more appealing than what Niederreiter had to work with in Nashville.
Defense notes
Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche (down 10 spots to No. 23): Obviously getting benched for concussion symptom concerns twice in a month is concerning. That said, until we get word Makar is going to miss a handful more games, I don't want him slipping too far down the rankings. He's too powerful in the fantasy department when he is on the ice. Hang tight for another week and see where we are at then. But those adverse to risk may want to bench him until then.
Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights (up 29 spots to No. 150): Seemingly refreshed after missing some time with injury, Theodore has posted 10 points in 10 games since drawing back into the lineup. His season-long fantasy points per game (FPPG) stand at 2.0, while his pace over the past 10 games has been 2.5 FPPG.
Goaltender notes
Joonas Korpisalo, G, Columbus Blue Jackets (up 56 spots to No. 168): More than holding his own when given a chance in the Blue Jackets net, Korpisalo even managed to get positive fantasy points while allowing five goals on Saturday -- not a small feat. His crease share sits at 66 percent in the past month, so the chances will be there for him to continue to make minor contributions in fantasy. He's not to the point where you set him and forget him in your second goalie slot, but having him on the bench for occasional use has merit.
Jack Campbell, G, Edmonton Oilers (down 47 spots to No. 206): It really did seem, for a second there, like everything was going to work out OK for Campbell. Opportunity in late January and early February had him string together some strong starts and, briefly, ever so briefly, look like he could be the starter the Oilers and fantasy managers paid for. But that hope has been crushed under the boot of 18 goals over the course of 220 minutes in parts of four games. In other words, 4.91 goals-against average and .846 save percentage since Feb. 15.
ESPN fantasy NHL top-250 rankings
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (F1)
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Col (F2)
3. Roman Josi, D, Nsh (D1)
4. Elias Pettersson, C, Van (F3)
5. David Pastrnak, RW, Bos (F4)
6. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G1)
7. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (F5)
8. Auston Matthews, C, Tor (F6)
9. Tage Thompson, C, Buf (F7)
10. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Col (F8)
11. Jack Hughes, C, NJ (F9)
12. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buf (D2)
13. Linus Ullmark, G, Bos (G2)
14. Nikita Kucherov, RW, TB (F10)
15. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (F11)
16. Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR (F12)
17. Timo Meier, RW, NJ (F13)
18. Tim Stutzle, LW, Ott (F14)
19. Jake Oettinger, G, Dal (G3)
20. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Fla (F15)
21. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Wpg (G4)
22. Brayden Point, C, TB (F16)
23. Cale Makar, D, Col (D3)
24. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G5)
25. Dougie Hamilton, D, NJ (D4)
26. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D5)
27. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgk (D6)
28. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D7)
29. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (F17)
30. Alexandar Georgiev, G, Col (G6)
31. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bos (D8)
32. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (F18)
33. Steven Stamkos, C, TB (F19)
34. Aleksander Barkov, C, Fla (F20)
35. Juuse Saros, G, Nsh (G7)
36. John Tavares, C, Tor (F21)
37. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (F22)
38. Mitchell Marner, RW, Tor (F23)
39. Moritz Seider, D, Det (D9)
40. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (F24)
41. Artemi Panarin, LW, NYR (F25)
42. William Nylander, RW, Tor (F26)
43. Nico Hischier, C, NJ (F27)
44. Kris Letang, D, Pit (D10)
45. Jason Robertson, LW, Dal (F28)
46. Vitek Vanecek, G, NJ (G8)
47. Ilya Sorokin, G, NYI (G9)
48. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D11)
49. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D12)
50. Jakob Chychrun, D, Ari (D13)
51. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D14)
52. Sebastian Aho, C, Car (F29)
53. Dylan Larkin, C, Det (F30)
54. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (F31)
55. J.T. Miller, C, Van (F32)
56. Brad Marchand, LW, Bos (F33)
57. Alex Tuch, RW, Buf (F34)
58. Jake DeBrusk, LW, Bos (F35)
59. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott (D15)
60. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Min (F36)
61. Seth Jones, D, Chi (D16)
62. Tristan Jarry, G, Pit (G10)
63. Brent Burns, D, Car (D17)
64. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Ott (F37)
65. Jack Eichel, C, Vgk (F38)
66. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Min (F39)
67. Ilya Samsonov, G, Tor (G11)
68. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (F40)
69. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (F41)
70. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (F42)
71. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pit (F43)
72. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (F44)
73. Claude Giroux, LW, Ott (F45)
74. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (F46)
75. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (F47)
76. Kevin Fiala, C, LA (F48)
77. Darcy Kuemper, G, Wsh (G12)
78. Zach Hyman, LW, Edm (F49)
79. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Car (F50)
80. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D18)
81. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (F51)
82. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Wpg (F52)
83. Vincent Trocheck, C, NYR (F53)
84. Jesper Bratt, RW, NJ (F54)
85. Patrice Bergeron, C, Bos (F55)
86. Bo Horvat, C, NYI (F56)
87. Jordan Kyrou, C, StL (F57)
88. Nick Schmaltz, C, Ari (F58)
89. Ville Husso, G, Det (G13)
90. Brandon Hagel, LW, TB (F59)
91. Jeff Skinner, LW, Buf (F60)
92. Adam Larsson, D, Sea (D19)
93. Boone Jenner, C, Cls (F61)
94. Clayton Keller, C, Ari (F62)
95. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, NYR (F63)
96. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (F64)
97. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D20)
98. Drake Batherson, C, Ott (F65)
99. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Fla (G14)
100. Rasmus Andersson, D, Cgy (D21)
101. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D22)
102. Filip Forsberg, LW, Nsh (F66)
103. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D23)
104. Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Col (F67)
105. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (F68)
106. Patrik Laine, RW, Cls (F69)
107. Bowen Byram, D, Col (D24)
108. Frederik Andersen, G, Car (G15)
109. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Fla (F70)
110. Tomas Hertl, C, SJ (F71)
111. Martin Necas, C, Car (F72)
112. Noah Dobson, D, NYI (D25)
113. Logan Thompson, G, Vgk (G16)
114. Rickard Rakell, C, Pit (F73)
115. Brock Nelson, C, NYI (F74)
116. Logan Couture, C, SJ (F75)
117. Aaron Ekblad, D, Fla (D26)
118. Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Col (F76)
119. Devon Toews, D, Col (D27)
120. Adrian Kempe, C, LA (F77)
121. Sam Reinhart, RW, Fla (F78)
122. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Cgy (F79)
123. Filip Gustavsson, G, Min (G17)
124. Darnell Nurse, D, Edm (D28)
125. Jeff Petry, D, Pit (D29)
126. Dylan Cozens, C, Buf (F80)
127. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, StL (F81)
128. Rafael Harvey-Pinard, LW, Mon (F82)
129. Jeremy Swayman, G, Bos (G18)
130. Pheonix Copley, G, LA (0)
131. David Savard, D, Mon (D30)
132. Ondrej Palat, LW, NJ (F83)
133. Trevor Zegras, C, Ana (F84)
134. Justin Faulk, D, StL (D31)
135. Evander Kane, LW, Edm (F85)
136. Morgan Rielly, D, Tor (D32)
137. Anthony Duclair, LW, Fla (F86)
138. Travis Konecny, RW, Phi (F87)
139. Torey Krug, D, StL (D33)
140. Vince Dunn, D, Sea (D34)
141. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Cls (F88)
142. Blake Wheeler, RW, Wpg (F89)
143. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (F90)
144. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D35)
145. Jake McCabe, D, Chi (D36)
146. Matty Beniers, C, Sea (F91)
147. Nazem Kadri, C, Cgy (F92)
148. Philipp Grubauer, G, Sea (G19)
149. Lawson Crouse, LW, Ari (F93)
150. Shea Theodore, D, Vgk (D37)
151. Brandon Montour, D, Fla (D38)
152. Stuart Skinner, G, Edm (G20)
153. Jared McCann, LW, Sea (F94)
154. Matt Duchene, C, Nsh (F95)
155. Ryan Graves, D, NJ (D39)
156. Adam Beckman, C, Min (F96)
157. Ben Chiarot, D, Det (D40)
158. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (F97)
159. Anders Lee, LW, NYI (F98)
160. Carter Hart, G, Phi (G21)
161. Tyler Bertuzzi, LW, Det (F99)
162. J.T. Compher, RW, Col (F100)
163. Filip Hronek, D, Det (D41)
164. K'Andre Miller, D, NYR (D42)
165. Hampus Lindholm, D, Bos (D43)
166. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D44)
167. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Min (G22)
168. Joonas Korpisalo, G, Cls (G23)
169. Nick Suzuki, C, Mon (F101)
170. Tony DeAngelo, D, Phi (D45)
171. Tyson Barrie, D, Edm (D46)
172. Ryan O'Reilly, C, Tor (F102)
173. Phillip Danault, C, LA (F103)
174. Sean Durzi, D, LA (D47)
175. Robert Thomas, C, StL (F104)
176. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, LA (F105)
177. John Klingberg, D, Ana (D48)
178. Luke Schenn, D, Van (D49)
179. Sam Bennett, LW, Fla (F106)
180. Matt Boldy, LW, Min (F107)
181. Filip Chytil, RW, NYR (F108)
182. Jordan Eberle, RW, Sea (F109)
183. Neal Pionk, D, Wpg (D50)
184. Owen Tippett, RW, Phi (F110)
185. Noah Hanifin, D, Cgy (D51)
186. David Krejci, C, Bos (F111)
187. Samuel Girard, D, Col (D52)
188. Frank Vatrano, LW, Ana (F112)
189. Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Sea (F113)
190. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Ari (D53)
191. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Col (F114)
192. Chandler Stephenson, C, Vgk (F115)
193. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (F116)
194. Matt Murray, G, Tor (G24)
195. Mike Matheson, D, Mon (D54)
196. Adam Boqvist, D, Cls (D55)
197. Alec Martinez, D, Vgk (D56)
198. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (F117)
199. Antti Raanta, G, Car (G25)
200. Kirill Marchenko, LW, Cls (F118)
201. Juuso Valimaki, D, Ari (D57)
202. Brayden McNabb, D, Vgk (D58)
203. Michael Bunting, LW, Tor (F119)
204. Martin Jones, G, Sea (G26)
205. Thatcher Demko, G, Van (G27)
206. Jack Campbell, G, Edm (G28)
207. Cam Fowler, D, Ana (D59)
208. Jonas Brodin, D, Min (D60)
209. Dillon Dube, C, Cgy (F120)
210. Ryan McDonagh, D, Nsh (D61)
211. Troy Terry, C, Ana (F121)
212. Robby Fabbri, C, Det (F122)
213. Ryan Hartman, RW, Min (F123)
214. Jake Sanderson, D, Ott (D62)
215. Pavel Zacha, C, Bos (F124)
216. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Wpg (F125)
217. Jake Walman, D, Det (D63)
218. Adin Hill, G, Vgk (G29)
219. Erik Gustafsson, D, Wsh (D64)
220. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Car (F126)
221. Joel Edmundson, D, Mon (D65)
222. Cam Talbot, G, Ott (G30)
223. John Gibson, G, Ana (G31)
224. Jason Zucker, LW, Pit (F127)
225. Bryan Rust, RW, Pit (F128)
226. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D66)
227. Trevor van Riemsdyk, D, Wsh (D67)
228. Mikael Backlund, C, Cgy (F129)
229. Gustav Forsling, D, Fla (D68)
230. Anthony Cirelli, C, TB (F130)
231. Mark Giordano, D, Tor (D69)
232. Matt Roy, D, LA (D70)
233. Kaapo Kahkonen, G, SJ (G32)
234. Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vgk (F131)
235. Jordan Binnington, G, StL (G33)
236. Dawson Mercer, C, NJ (F132)
237. Dmitry Orlov, D, Bos (D71)
238. William Carrier, LW, Vgk (F133)
239. Karel Vejmelka, G, Ari (0)
240. Tanner Jeannot, LW, Nsh (F134)
241. Josh Anderson, RW, Mon (F135)
242. Phil Kessel, RW, Vgk (F136)
243. Colton Parayko, D, StL (D72)
244. Seth Jarvis, C, Car (F137)
245. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Phi (D73)
246. Casey DeSmith, G, Pit (G34)
247. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Phi (F138)
248. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NYI (F139)
249. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Edm (F140)
250. Eetu Luostarinen, C, Fla (F141)
Just missed
Mark Stone, W, Vegas Golden Knights
Max Domi, C/W, Chicago Blackhawks
T.J. Oshie, W, Washington Capitals
Esa Lindell, D, Dallas Stars
Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Washington Capitals
Reilly Smith, W, Vegas Golden Knights
Tommy Novak, C, Nashville Predators
Ivan Barbashev, W, Vegas Golden Knights
Evgenii Dadonov, W, Dallas Stars
Dropped out
John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals
Kirby Dach, C/W, Montreal Canadiens
Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders
Adam Henrique, C/W, Anaheim Ducks
Jacob Markstrom, G, Calgary Flames
Blake Coleman, W, Calgary Flames
Damon Severson, D, New Jersey Devils
Jakub Vrana, C/W, Detroit Red Wings
Alexis Lafreniere, W, New York Rangers
Garnet Hathaway, W, Boston Bruins
Josh Brown, D, Arizona Coyotes
Cole Perfetti, C/W, Winnipeg Jets
Alexander Barabanov, W, San Jose Sharks
Dan Vladar, G, Calgary Flames