Martin Necas and Mikko Rantanen had something in common before they were traded for each other on Friday. When looking at the shot attempts per minute generated by lines at five on five across the past 10 games, their trios were both ranked in the top six in the league.
The Edmonton Oilers trio of Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leads the way in shot attempts per 10 minutes (SAP10) with 16.27 across 64:32 in the past 10 games. Ranked second in that timeframe is the former Colorado Avalanche trio of Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin with 15.69 SAP10 in 51:37. And ranked sixth is the former Carolina Hurricanes threesome of Martin Necas, Eric Robinson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi with 14.28 SAP10 across 70:45.
Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play | Droppables
We have very little data since the trade, but let's look at it to see where the trends are going. In two games with the Avalanche, Necas has lined up with MacKinnon and Drouin for 31:49 at five-on-five and they had significant success in tilting the ice for shot attempts. The new trio actually eclipsed the rate at which the Rantanen-based line did across the previous 10 games (seven together) with 17.92 SAP10. The problem was the conversion rate, as Rantanen's Avalanche line scored five goals and allowed one, while Necas' Avalanche line scored once and allowed three.
There is nothing surprising about these stats, as MacKinnon is the play driver here and he's not going anywhere. Still, the three goals against are a little concerning, as MacKinnon and Rantanen allowed about 0.5 goals per game on the ice together at five-on-five. There wasn't anyone in the league the Avs could trade for that wouldn't be a step down from Rantanen, so, again, not unexpected. However, if that goals-against rate doesn't slow down, Valeri Nichushkin might waltz back onto the top line when healthy -- and not being on the top line for this top-heavy Avalanche team is a death sentence for fantasy production.
In Carolina, Necas wasn't playing on the top scoring line, but we will analyze how it had done prior to Rantanen's acquisition. Sebastian Aho had some different combinations in the 10 games leading up to the trade: With Jack Roslovic and Seth Jarvis, he posted 10.01 SAP10 with zero goals and three goals against; With Andrei Svechnikov and Jackson Blake, he posted 15.80 SAP10 with three goals and four goals against (only 46:13, so not enough for the leaderboard).
It's only been one game and 13:31 together, but Rantanen, Aho and Blake posted 11.10 SAP10 with a goal scored and none against. We definitely need more information, but the major takeaway here is that Aho's line was routinely scored upon prior to the trade. Rantanen doesn't get scored on all that much, so he should help tilt the goal share in favor of this Hurricanes top unit. This makes the essentially universally available Blake a potential fantasy target should he stick and benefit as the third member of this line.
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Goalie notes
Los Angeles Kings in 47 games (four last week):
Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 55.0%/74.9%, fantasy points season/week: 80.8/3.2, 43.1% available)
David Rittich (crease share season/week: 41.9%/25.1%, fantasy points season/week: 19.4/-4.4, 98.0% available)
Only Logan Thompson and Igor Shesterkin have earned more fantasy points in the crease than Kuemper since the calendar flipped to 2025, as the L.A. netminder has settled into a rhythm for the defensively solid Kings. Oh, what's this? The Kings are also getting their best defenseman back soon in the form of veteran Drew Doughty? Pick up Kuemper if he's still available in your league.
New Jersey Devils in 52 games (four last week):
Jacob Markstrom (crease share season/week: 68.5%/12.8%, fantasy points season/week: 103.2/-0.8, 12.3% available)
Jake Allen (crease share season/week: 31.5%/87.2%, fantasy points season/week: 26.6/9.4, 86.1% available)
Markstrom's knee injury is devastating from a fantasy perspective, but Allen has played decently enough so far in his absence. The playing time for a strong offensive club is enough to warrant adding Allen as a possible replacement until Markstrom is back, hopefully, in early March.
Ottawa Senators in 50 games (five last week):
Linus Ullmark (crease share season/week: 43.0%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 67.2/DNP, 17.4% available)
Anton Forsberg (crease share season/week: 33.7%/64.2%, fantasy points season/week: 16.2/6.4, 99.0% available)
Leevi Merilainen (crease share season/week: 20.2%/35.8%, fantasy points season/week: 42.6/7.6, 89.3% available)
Ullmark's status remains day-to-day and it is unclear what the Sens will do upon his return, but in the meantime, Merilainen ranks fourth among goaltenders for fantasy points in January.
Philadelphia Flyers in 51 games (four last week):
Samuel Ersson (crease share season/week: 48.7%/76.3%, fantasy points season/week: 45.6/9.8, 77.7% available)
Ivan Fedotov (crease share season/week: 25.8%/23.7%, fantasy points season/week: -4.0/-1.2, 99.3% available)
Aleksei Kolosov (crease share season/week: 25.5%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -12.6/DNP, 99.9% available)
Don't look now, but only seven goaltenders have more fantasy points in the past 30 days than Ersson. With the Washington Capitals, Avalanche and recently hot New York Islanders among the six games on the slate for the Flyers before the 4 Nations break, it might be best to tuck Ersson on the bench and reconsider his deployment afterward.
Toronto Maple Leafs in 50 games (three last week):
Joseph Woll (crease share season/week: 51.2%/66.7%, fantasy points season/week: 68.0/3.6, 32.5% available)
Anthony Stolarz (crease share season/week: 32.7%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 60.0/DNP, 51.7% available)
Dennis Hildeby (crease share season/week: 12.1%/33.3%, fantasy points season/week: -0.6/-5.2, 99.6% available)
We are getting close to Stolarz's expected return date from a knee injury. Perhaps the Leafs let him recover through the 4 Nations break, but he's worth getting back on rosters. Even with missing so much time, he has almost as many fantasy points as Woll.
Washington Capitals in 49 games (three last week):
Logan Thompson (crease share season/week: 54.6%/33.5%, fantasy points season/week: 123.8/6.0, 11.3% available)
Charlie Lindgren (crease share season/week: 45.4%/66.5%, fantasy points season/week: 43.2/12.0, 51.2% available)
Hopefully signing Thompson to a long-term contract doesn't mess with the dynamic between him and Lindgren that has made Washington into a powerhouse. The team gave Lindgren a couple of consecutive starts upon his return from injury, but we'll see if these two settle back into a 50-50 split again ... not that it's been a burden on their fantasy value.
Power-play notes
Alexis Lafreniere lights the lamp
Alexis Lafreniere, LW, New York Rangers (available in 31.3%): It could be worth the Rangers' while to switch Chris Kreider off the top power play. The unit has worked better with Lafrenière of late, posting 5.91 shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2) and four goals in 10:09 during the past 10 games, versus 5.26 SAP2 and two goals in 13:18 with Kreider.
Matt Grzelcyk, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (available in 94.6%): Speaking of shot attempt differentials, Grzelcyk is a much better option for the Penguins than Erik Karlsson of late. In the past 10 games, the top unit has 5.52 SAP2 and three goals with Grzelcyk, but 2.13 SAP2 and just one goal with Karlsson.
Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (available in 75.9%): With news that Sean Monahan is going to be out until late March due to his wrist injury, Fantilli just got a lot more runway to perform as the Blue Jackets No. 1 center. The power play has been in a lull, but it could come roaring back at any moment with Zach Werenski on the point.
Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota Wild (available in 19.9%): With news that Kirill Kaprizov will be sidelined for another month, Rossi gets to continue his time on the top power-play unit. There just isn't enough space for him when everyone is healthy. This puts him back on track for fantasy value, as the boost from the advantage is what has helped keep him in the mix.
Droppables
It's interesting that I chose to highlight the precipitous drop in Necas' output in this space last week. Of course, I recommended you float him in a trade to try to use some of the value from his first 26 games of the season (2.97 FPPG), noting that since then he had been a drain on fantasy rosters across the following 21 games (1.11 FPPG).
It seems like the Hurricanes were also looking to cash in on some of that holdover value by dealing Necas for Rantanen, a trade we all wish we could have made in fantasy back on Dec. 5 when it was in the realm of possibility. Now Necas gets to ride shotgun with one of the top three offensive catalysts in the NHL and should be a top pickup for fantasy teams. What a difference a week makes!
Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers (rostered in 84.8%): Moving to the third line, Bennett doesn't have the access to the teammates he needs to reach fantasy relevance. His 1.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG) overall belies his 1.04 FPPG across his past 20 games.
Morgan Rielly, D, Toronto Maple Leafs (rostered in 72.7%): Even with John Tavares and Matthew Knies injured, the Leafs still found a way to build their top power-play unit with five forwards. Rielly is on the outside looking in for value here and is rostered in too many leagues.
Matvei Michkov, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (rostered in 51.4%): Playing in the bottom six, Michkov is averaging 0.98 FPPG in his past 20 outings. He shouldn't be on rosters in redraft leagues at this stage.