Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Shocking ace starts critical series
Tuesday is a day of aces in major league baseball, featuring Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow, Orioles RHP Corbin Burnes and Mariners RHP George Kirby, among others. However, one right-handed starting pitcher enters the day with more ESPN fantasy points than all of them, and he leads RHPs on the Player Rater as well. He was a mid-round pick in ESPN average live drafts, at best, a 34-year-old who spent much of his big-league career as a reliever.
Royals RHP Seth Lugo enters Tuesday's huge AL Central matchup in Cleveland having won four consecutive starts, six of seven and nine of 12 overall, and he has permitted more than two earned runs in one outing. Fantasy managers may have been skeptical of Lugo, the longtime Mets swingman who made 26 surprising starts for last season's Padres and turned it into a lucrative three-year contract, but he keeps improving, featuring a 1.72 ERA. The numbers do not lie. Or do they?
Lugo hardly overpowers with his 92.4 MPH fastball, down 2 MPH from the 2022 season in New York's bullpen, and he throws off-speed stuff half the time, mainly a redesigned slider and effective curveball, which he uses to keep hitters off-balance, resulting in myriad harmless fly balls. Lugo is hard to hit, permitting a .210 batting average against, but the Royals defend well in their large ballpark, and they score plenty of runs for him, with eight or more runs in four outings.
There are warning signs, though. A 3.21 FIP ranks 24th among starters, and it is a more accurate gauge of his performance. Lugo leads all pitchers with an 89.5% LOB, his BABIP is a fortunate .251, and he is striking out only 21.2% of hitters, in the bottom third of starters. Only 14 starters rank better in HR/9. Lugo permitted 19 home runs in 146 1/3 innings last season, a strong rate, but nearly double his current mark. He is good, but not this good.
Lugo is up to 90% rostered in ESPN leagues, and he should be active for all outings, even against a Guardians lineup leading the American League at 5.05 runs per game. After all, only two Guardians have ever faced Lugo, one at bat versus star Jose Ramirez, and backup C Austin Hedges is 2-for-3. Who has the advantage? This begins an important stretch for Lugo's fantasy value. Let's see how he fares!
What you may have missed on Monday
By Todd Zola
The Detroit Tigers optioned 1B Spencer Torkelson to Triple-A Toledo. In a corresponding move, they promoted OF Justyn-Henry Malloy from the Mud Hens. After bashing 31 homers last season, Torkelson struggled over the first two months of the season, clubbing just four long balls while posting a .596 OPS. Malloy made his MLB debut last night, serving as the DH. He batted sixth, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. Last night, OF Mark Canha played first base, though 3B Gio Urshela should also see action there while Torkelson figures things out on the farm. The Tigers doubled up the Texas Rangers 2-1, behind six strong frames from SP and three innings from RP Beau Brieske. Brieske was recalled in mid-May, primarily to be used as a long reliever. After last night, he's sporting a 1.59 ERA and .79 WHIP, albeit with only eight strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. Even so, after yesterday's performance, Brieske could start being used in late-inning scenarios. He's yet to record a hold or save in his six appearances, but that could soon change.
Early reports are encouraging after Houston Astros OF Kyle Tucker fouled a ball off his shin and was in obvious pain. The initial diagnosis is a bruised right shin after X-rays came back negative. Tucker is slated for further examination today. He's considered day-to-day. Through last night's action, Tucker is ranked seventh overall on the ESPN Player Rater.
San Diego Padres 2B Luis Arraez sat out last night after hurting his shoulder sliding on Sunday. Arraez was reportedly available to pinch-hit, but he remained on the bench as the club fell 2-1 to the Los Angeles Angels. Arraez's availability for tonight's contest is unclear.
Despite saying his jammed left shoulder was feeling better, Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams missed his third straight game last night. His status for tonight's NL West tilt with the New York Mets is up in the air. The Mets took the opener 8-7 with RP Jake Diekman logging the save. Diekman was summoned after RP Adam Ottavino left with the bases loaded, one out and one run in, cutting the lead to 8-6. Diekman allowed a sacrifice fly, then fanned C Drew Millas for his second save. Ottavino was credited with a hold despite yielding at least a run for the third time in his last four appearances.
The Baltimore Orioles placed INF Jorge Mateo on the 7-day concussion IL. To replace him, the club selected 2B Connor Norby from Triple-A Norfolk. Norby is yet another of the Orioles' promising prospects. He was batting .286/.374/.510 through 51 games on the farm. It's unclear if this is just a temporary visit until Mateo clears concussion protocol. Norby started the game at second base. He was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts from the nine-hold before being removed for a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning of the Orioles 7-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.
Everything else you need to know for Tuesday
Yankees RHP Luis Gil, who turned 26 years old Monday, was a rotation afterthought two months ago, but good luck getting rid of him now after he went 6-0 in May with a 0.70 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over 38 2/3 dominant innings. Gil surrendered 14 hits. He faces a Twins lineup that is expected to have slugging 3B Royce Lewis back from quad injury. Lewis got hurt on Opening Day, and he has a long history of physical woes. Gil permits a .130 batting average and .461 OPS to right-handed hitters. This should be fun!
Pirates RHP Jared Jones won only one of his five starts in May, albeit with a 3.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Jones comes off his worst outing, when he gave up seven runs (five earned) at Detroit, with a season-low two strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings. Jones has allowed a home run in four consecutive starts and the Dodgers lead the NL in home runs. This will be a tough test against Glasnow, who boasts a 1.69 road ERA.
Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga gets the start as the two Chicago squads open a series at Wrigley Field. Imanaga also comes off his worst outing, permitting seven runs (all earned) at Milwaukee. That outing came on 10 days rest, as the Cubs aim to monitor his workload. The White Sox are baseball's saddest team, having lost 11 consecutive games with an offense that has scored five runs only twice in that span. Imanaga boasted an 0.84 ERA prior to the Brewers game, and now it is 1.86. If that ERA rises again, fantasy managers will begin to panic.
Betting tip of the day: Astros RHP Spencer Arrighetti may have unsightly numbers overall (5.98 ERA, 1.65 WHIP), but he has won three of four starts, and he is starting to miss bats at a higher level. Arrighetti struck out eight Mariners over six shutout innings last week. The Cardinals are playing better baseball lately, but Arrighetti is rolling. Take the over on 6.5 strikeouts (+160). The Cardinals start contact RHP Andre Pallante, who not only permitted a .357 batting average to right-handed batters last season, but it is doubling down at .391 this season. Astros 3B Alex Bregman bats right-handed, and he has resuscitated his season, with five home runs over the past seven games. Take a chance on Bregman homering and the Astros to win at +900.
It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jeimer Candelario (CIN, 3B -- 13%) at Ty Blach
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C -- 6%) at Blach
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 10%) at Blach
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 7%) vs. Frankie Montas
Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 45%) at Blake Walston
Stuart Fairchild (CIN, LF -- 0%) at Blach
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 25%) vs. Montas
Santiago Espinal (CIN, 2B -- 0%) at Blach
Jorge Soler (SF, RF -- 45%) at Walston
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 14%) vs. Montas
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C -- 69%) at Luis Gil
Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 69%) at Cristopher Sanchez
Brent Rooker (OAK, RF -- 54%) vs. George Kirby
Royce Lewis (MIN, 3B -- 76%) at Gil
Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF -- 96%) vs. Jack Flaherty
Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 84%) at Francis
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 50%) vs. Tyler Glasnow
Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 54%) vs. Flaherty
Christian Yelich (MIL, LF -- 95%) at Sanchez
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 90%) at Jared Jones
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today
Cincinnati Reds at Blach