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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Minnesota Twins pitcher Bailey Ober looks to bounce back from a few disappointing performances. Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 9, 2024, 06:17 AM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Ober and Ober Again

          In his first start of the season, Minnesota Twins SP Bailey Ober faced the Kansas City Royals in what was perceived to be a favorable matchup. The Royals crushed Ober, scoring eight earned runs on nine hits in just 1 1/3 innings. Little did anyone know at the time that the Royals would be the sixth highest scoring team in the league, currently averaging just .01 fewer runs per game than the vaunted New York Yankees.

          To his credit, Ober settled down and lowered his ERA to 3.77 on May 12. However, he's sputtered since with a 7.58 ERA over his next four starts, raising it to his current 4.94 level.

          From a skills perspective, Ober's 17.3% K-BB% is the lowest of his career, but it's still a respectable 30th among pitchers hurling at least 60 frames. His downfall is homers as he's administered 11 in just 62 innings.

          In general, fly ball pitchers have been aided by this season's reduced average fly ball distance as homers and BABIP on fly balls have dropped. However, Ober is the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the league with a 53.2% mark. Homers and fly ball hits may be in decline, but Ober induces so much lofted contact that he isn't experiencing the full benefit.

          On the other hand, a 4.19 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA indicate that Ober has also endured some bad luck, most notably a 67.7% left on base mark. Keep in mind this does not suggest Ober should pitch to an ERA round 4.00 the rest of the way, but rather the peripherals and batted ball types he generated over his first 12 outings portended to an ERA in that neighborhood. Granted, it does suggest an ERA in that range if Ober maintains his current strikeout and walk level, along with the elevated fly ball rate.

          Also in Ober's favor are his Statcast number in sync with his career levels. That is, his Hard-Hit%, average exit velocity and Barrel% are within expected ranges.

          Ober's ESPN rostership was 87.4% for his first start, but then of course fell, plummeting to 64.4% before slowly climbing back to 79.4% on May 18. His recent side has his rostership at 61.5%, the season's nadir.

          Looking ahead, he lines up to face the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers. Of the five foes, the highest ranked opponent wOBA against right-handers is the Diamondbacks .296 mark, the 11th lowest in the league. All the others are in the bottom 10.

          Not only is Ober a solid start for Sunday, but he's also an intriguing trade "buy-low" trade candidate.

          Betting Tip of the Day: How about some early action? Yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 7-2 in the opener of the London Series. London Stadium played as expected with 1B Bryce Harper, OF Nick Castellanos and 2B/OF Whit Merrifield all leaving the yard. A gutsy effort by Philadelphia Phillies SP kept the Mets offense in check. With SP Taijuan Walker on the hill for the Phillies and SP Jose Quintana getting the nod for the Mets, both teams should be productive, so I'm taking the over on 10.5 total runs scored (-120).

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          By Todd Zola

          • Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers left Saturday's contest in the eighth inning due to a sore left knee. After the game, manager Alex Cora reported that Devers would sit out Sunday, with the hope of returning on Tuesday. The club has Monday off. Devers will be joined on the bench by OF Tyler O'Neill, who has already been ruled out for today's finale with the Chicago White Sox in the Windy City. Like with Devers, the Red Sox aim to have O'Neill back on Tuesday for the opener of an interleague series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Today, they'll try to split the four-game set after taking the opener but losing the next two contests. It won't be easy with the Red Sox starting RP Zack Kelly in what portends to be a parade of relievers after long man Chase Anderson tossed three frames in Sunday's 6-1 loss.

          • The Colorado Rockies will be without 2B Brendan Rodgers for at least 10 days after placing him on the IL yesterday. Rodgers strained his left hamstring on Friday night. The club called up INF Adael Amador to share the keystone with Alan Trejo.

          • Seattle Mariners 1B Ty France missed last night's game after being hit in the heel by a pitch on Friday night. After yesterday's contest, manager Scott Servais expressed concern that France would miss some time. The club will reportedly promote 1B Tyler Locklear from Triple-A Tacoma. The 23-year-old righty swinger started the season with Double-A Arkansas where he posted a .933 OPS before being advanced a level. Locklear recorded an .892 OPS in 10 games with the Rainiers.

          • Despite being on the field for pre-game drills last night, San Diego Padres 3B Manny Machado didn't start for the third straight game as he continues to nurse a right hip flexor. Third base was again covered by INF Donovan Solano. Machado is questionable for today's series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres have won two of the first three games of the four-game home set.

          • As expected, New York Yankees OF Juan Soto missed last night's interleague affair with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He also missed the first game of the series, both Dodgers road victories. Soto will be sidelined again today when the Yankees attempt to avoid the weekend sweep. However, skipper Aaron Boone reported Soto and his inflamed forearm are improving and he may take some swings before today's game.

          • The injury-plagued Miami Marlins rotation took another hit yesterday with SP Ryan Weathers requiring a visit to the 15-day IL with a left index finger sprain. The club recalled SP Roddery Munoz to start yesterday. Earlier in the week, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker indicated that SP Max Meyer is expected to return to the Show soon. The 25-year-old right-hander missed last season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He began the season in the Marlins rotation and pitched well, posting a 2.12 ERA and .82 WHIP in three starts, spanning 17 innings. Meyer was optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville where his workload has been limited to pitching once a week, with a three-inning limit. It's unclear how he'll be handled upon returning to South Beach.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • WARNING: Sunday's action begins at 10:00 a.m. ET with the finale of the London Series. ESPN league lock waiver pickups at that time. You don't want to be shorthanded on the last day of this head-to-head scoring period.

          • The top-ranked streaming option is San Diego SP Adam Mazur (1.4% rostered in ESPN leagues). Mazur has been pressed into action with SP Yu Darvish and SP Joe Musgrove on the injured list. Mazur posted a quality start in his MLB game earlier in the week. He limited the Los Angeles Angels to just one run on two hits, though he walked four with only two strikeouts. Despite issuing four free passes in his debut, Mazur's calling card is control. On Sunday, Mazur has a favorable home matchup against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup toting the fifth lowest road wOBA with a righty on the hill.

          • As was mentioned yesterday, the Sunday slate is not amenable to streaming pitchers. The best option has one career start under his belt. The next will be making his major league debut with the Atlanta Braves calling up SP Hurston Waldrep to take the hill in the nation's capital against the Washington Nationals. The club wants to give SP Max Fried, SP Chris Sale and the rest of their rotation an extra day of rest, so Waldrep will be summoned. The 22-year-old right-hander began the season with Double-A Mississippi then was promoted to Triple-A Gwinnett where he has made just one start. Waldrep will face a lineup with the 20th highest wOBA versus righties.

          • The focus is usually on staring pitching, but with such a dearth of spot starting options, Sunday could be the time to look for points from relievers, especially holds. Two of the top three leaders in holds reside in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. JoJo Romero is tied for the league lead with 19, followed closely by Andrew Kittredge in third place. The Cardinals entertain the weak Colorado Rockies squad. The Cardinals will send SP Andre Pallante to the hill, so the bullpen will be busy putting both Romero and Kittredge in play for a hold.

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday