After plodding through a few days with spotty pitching options, the aces are back in spades, just in time for a typically busy night of DFS action. Better yet, since this is their last outing before the All-Star break, they'll all be eligible to work in the upcoming Midsummer Classic. But that's not for a few days. Let's first head you into the break on a strong note, beginning with all you need to know to dominate Friday's slate with the Daily Notes.
Pitching
Elite
One of the more interesting stories to follow over the second half will be how the Miami Marlins manage Jose Fernandez's workload. Several different innings limits have been bandied about with 180 making the most sense. Of course, a lot will revolve around the chase for a wild-card spot and the Fish are in the thick of it. Fernandez has tossed 100⅓ innings, tied for 46th over the first half, so the club has indeed found some spots to temper the righty's total. The 23-year old's final outing before the break is against the Cincinnati Reds in South Beach. The visitors are a bit below average in terms of weighted on base average (wOBA) versus righties while toting a strikeout rate a little higher than average. When one of the best pitchers in the league squares off with one of the weaker offenses, the result is DFS gold.
When it's perfectly legit to ask what's wrong with a guy boasting a 2.33 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, you know the bar has been set high. Such is the case for Jake Arrieta. Let's keep in mind that early on, Arrieta's surface stats were artificially low, but because he's the defending Cy Young award winner in the National League, many dismissed the notion of impending regression. Well, in June, the Chicago Cubs' right-handers pitched to a 3.54 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The big concern is a whopping 15 walks in 28 innings. Arrieta has had short stints of less than stellar control and has always bounced back. Even though this time the wildness was worse, he deserves the benefit of the doubt so expect a typically strong second half. For Friday night, however, Arrieta's in a tough spot, on the road against a pesky Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that's above average versus righties. On a docket with so many excellent options, the numbers say fade Arrieta, which of course will deem him contrarian for some. That feels like a trap call.
Speaking of setting the bar high, some are complaining about the new Chris Sale, the one who strikes out only 8.9 batters per nine innings. Please, get a grip. The Chicago White Sox lefty has thrown 120 innings, fifth most in the league. If this is the new baseline, deal with it ... or trade him to me. Sale is in a great spot to have another long outing with the Atlanta Braves visiting U.S. Cellular Field for an interleague set. The guests will bring the second worst wOBA in the league versus lefties to the Windy City though using a designated hitter helps a little. Still, Sale sets up as a great cash pitcher as well as a tournament option.
It's fair to say that a matchup between Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard will keep fans on the edge of their seats, focused on very pitch. The thing is, the reason isn't simply two awesome hurlers squaring off, but also the fear each pitch made might be their last for a while. OK, that's a tad hyperbolic but both right-handers have incurred recent health scares and neither is out of the woods yet. The DFS potential of each was already tempered by facing the other, factor in the injury and both are risky. Forced to choose one, Strasburg gets the nod as his injury risk is less plus the New York Mets whiff more than the Washington Nationals.
The final elite option is Corey Kluber as the Cleveland Indians continue to entertain the New York Yankees at Progressive Field. Considering there are so many left-handed or switch hitters in the lineup, it's surprising the Bronx Bombers aren't living up to their moniker against right-handers. However, the don't fan that much either, setting Kluber up much better for DFS cash play.
Solid
With a nice array of cash options in the top tier, let's turn our attention to unearthing some GPP gems. If you have a question about anyone not featured, or anything related to today's notes, please post it in the comments section or send me the query via Twitter to @ToddZola.
Strikeouts are the key to piling up pitching points. Texas Rangers southpaw Cole Hamels boasts an above average 8.8 K/9 that he'll put to good use facing a Minnesota Twins lineup in Arlington. With a lefty on the hill, the guests punch out at an accelerated 23-percent clip.
San Francisco Giants righty Jeff Samardzija has been in a rut lately, largely due to a sharp reduction in strikeouts compared to earlier in the season. This has lowered his DFS price tag a bit, which comes in handy with a plush home affair with the Arizona Diamondbacks. With pitcher-friendly AT&T at his back, look for the Shark to take advantage of the Snakes' 23 percent strikeout pace versus right-handers.
The San Diego Padres are the Senior Circuit's version of the Tampa Bay Rays; both sport perceived poor offense but in fact rake against left-handed slants. However, the Friars also whiff at a 24-percent clip in that scenario, rendering Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Scott Kazmir a contrarian GPP option as he takes the hill in Dodger Stadium.
Of all the strikeout platoon splits, the Milwaukee Brewers' 26 percent when facing right-handers is the worst. This bodes well for the disappointing but still talented Michael Wacha as the St. Louis Cardinals head to Miller Park for a weekend set.
You can't fake strikeouts and Matt Shoemaker's 9.1 K/9 is fully supported by an excellent first-pitch and swinging-strike rate. Granted, there are easier venues to pitch than Camden Yards against the explosive Baltimore Orioles but that will keep the ownership low on the Los Angeles Angels' righty.
Similarly, Daniel Mengden faces a big challenge as the Oakland Athletics head to Minute Maid Park for a series with the free-swinging Houston Astros. The hosts fan at a 24-percent clip against right-handers, though how they fare against hurlers sporting a Rollie Fingers moustache is unclear.
Streamers
Andrew Cashner fared well in his return from the disabled list, tossing six strong against the Yankees. Don't expect many whiffs, but Cashner should be able to keep the San Diego Padres in the game on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers and as alluded to earlier, his teammates smack lefties pretty good so the win is in play.
J.A. Happ is an even better option if chasing victories. The Toronto Blue Jays should inflict some damage on the Detroit Tigers' Mike Pelfrey. Happ has had a solid first half, but the visitors can hit too so there's some risk to ratios.
Last season, luck was on Collin McHugh's side as he won 19 with a 3.89 ERA that should have yielded closer to 13 or 14 victories. This year, McHugh's basal skills are essentially the same but a high hit rate has inflated the Houston Astros' right-handers ERA and WHIP. With a home date against the Oakland Athletics, bet on the skills as the visitors are a below-average offense when facing right-handers.
Here's another dart-throw for a win as Sean O'Sullivan and the Boston Red Sox close out the pseudo first half against the Tampa Bay Rays in Fenway Park. The Rays will hand the ball to the enigmatic Chris Archer while O'Sullivan deals with an offense that struggles versus righties that includes whiffing 25 percent of the time under those circumstances.
We'll end with a sneaky, albeit risky play as Atlanta Braves righty Matt Wisler takes on the Chicago White Sox in a road tilt. Wisler is much better against right-handed hitters, really struggling versus lefty swingers. The White Sox don't have any really threatening lefties so there's a chance Wisler can turn in a quality start, then it's up to his offense to scratch out some tallies against Sale.
Avoid
Even though Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano will be toeing the rubber in comfortable PNC Park, he's too inconsistent to trust facing the Chicago Cubs, one of the better squads against lefties.
Similarly, Kansas City Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura has the luxury of working at home in Kauffman Stadium, but the traveling Seattle Mariners check in with one of the best attacks against righties.
Even devoid of several of their more productive hitters, the San Francisco Giants are dangerous rendering the middling Patrick Corbin taking the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks in AT&T Park.
The final starter with a projected game score over 45 to avoid is Minnesota Twins righty Kyle Gibson, taking on the Texas Rangers in Arlington.
Hitters
Making a Friday night slate with a plethora of aces and a game scheduled in Coors even more interesting is one of the worst pitchers in the league, Mike Pelfrey, drawing the Toronto Blue Jays in Rogers Centre. Everyone wearing a Blue Jays uniform is in play with Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion the high-price options. Ezequiel Carrera, Russell Martin and Devon Travis are all more affordable choices.
You might have noticed that neither pitcher in the Coors Field affair made the stream or avoid list as they're both capable, young pitchers whose performance can go either way. As such, a full-on stack against the Philadelphia Phillies' Vince Velasquez and the Colorado Rockies' Jon Gray could backfire, but it makes sense to have some exposure, especially if you play multiple lineups. Odubel Herrera and Cody Asche have the platoon edge on Gray and have been hitting first and third against right-handers so they're a nice mini-stack. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are the Rockies' equivalent.
New York Yankees righty Chad Green stifled the San Diego Padres in his start last week but now faces a real challenge against the Cleveland Indians on the Lake. The Tribe will parade a bevy of lefties and switch hitters to the dish including Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall.
A low batting average on balls in play for Dan Straily is masking pedestrian peripherals. In two of his past five outings, Straily has failed to get out of the fourth inning so he hasn't escaped unscathed. The Miami Marlins' lefty swingers along with Giancarlo Stanton have a good chance to tack another stinker onto Straily's ledger. Joining the slugger in good spots are Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich and Don Kelly, who's filling in for the injured Justin Bour.
Most likely to go yard: Edwin Encarnacion
Someone from north of the border has to be the choice facing Pelfrey so let's change it up a bit and anoint Encarnacion to do the honors this time.
Most likely to swipe a bag: J.T. Realmuto
In what could be a historical moment in the three-month plus history of this feature, a catcher gets the nod. Realmuto didn't get the memo that receivers aren't supposed to run as he has snagged seven stolen bases. Dan Straily doesn't control the running game well so number eight is in the cards.