The Premier League season is underway, with the first matchday now in the books, but beware: First impressions can be misleading.
Aston Villa lost 5-1 at Newcastle United on the opening day last season yet ended it in fourth place, earning a surprise spot in the Champions League. With that in mind, it would be wise not to jump to conclusions based on the opening salvoes of this season's campaign.
The temptation is to say maybe nothing much has changed over the summer. Last year's top four all won first time out.
Manchester City, champions for the past four seasons, looked as clinical as ever in brushing aside Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Those of us wondering whether the imminent hearing of 115 financial charges and the doubts over Pep Guardiola's future might mess with City minds were given no ammunition by a very professional display. City remain the odds-on favourite to win the league, and new signing Savinho looked a menacing option out wide on Sunday.
Chelsea, with eight goalkeepers on the books, apparently cannot find a decent one. Robert Sánchez was badly at fault for City's second goal scored by former Blue Mateo Kovacic. Manager Enzo Maresca, in his first gig as a top-flight boss, has 43 players trying to adapt to his methodical approach. It might take time based on what we saw.
Meanwhile, the word is that Liverpool players like working under new coach Arne Slot. That showed in preseason and in a dominant second half at Ipswich Town, where a superb build-up led to Diogo Jota scoring an early goal-of-the season contender. Trent Alexander-Arnold's sublime pass is worth a special mention.
Slot showed he can be ruthless too, hooking young defender Jarell Quansah at half-time because he was struggling to cope with Liam Delap. Ibrahima Konaté solved that problem. Liverpool might get much closer to City and Arsenal this time round. The squad is deep and Slot's arrival seems to have freshened things up. There have been no signings yet, but expect a defensive midfielder to arrive before the transfer window closes at the end of the month.
Arsenal had a routine home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Nothing new to learn there and still no recognised striker signed, hardly a problem because they banged in 91 goals last season with Kai Havertz leading the line. Fired up by two near misses in the title race, this might be the Gunners' year. Mikel Merino from Spain's Euro champions is an expected signing from Real Sociedad to add to the midfield mix.
Manchester United's best business so far is getting Bruno Fernandes to sign a new deal. The times are changing at Old Trafford under a new regime: Last season, they might have lost that opening game against Fulham; this time, they found a way to win it.
Three new defenders have joined to give United a more solid look, aided by the return of the badly missed Lisandro Martínez. United can climb into the top four, helped by a match-winning winger in Alejandro Garnacho and the promptings of Fernandes. Casemiro looks sharper and fitter, too.
Based on the extraordinary match at Leicester City, little has changed with Tottenham Hotspur. They continue to entertain yet frustrate, managing to draw a game in which they could have led at least 6-0 but for missed chances. Once Leicester equalised through the ageless Jamie Vardy, Spurs lost all their previous menace. They will be fun to watch but appear to lack character and on-field leadership.
Aston Villa started with an excellent win at West Ham United. They have strengthened well, but the demands of an expanded Champions League campaign may prevent a top-four repeat. Jacob Ramsey, back to full fitness, is a Villa man to watch, and could Ollie Watkins threaten Harry Kane's place in the England team?
Newcastle did well to beat Southampton with ten men and Joelinton looked a real powerhouse quite apart from his goal. A leaky defense was a big problem for Eddie Howe last term, but that could be rectified if his club is able to find the last few million to prise England's Marc Guéhi from Crystal Palace this week. All previous bids have been rejected.
Who will go down? Last season it was the three promoted clubs: Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United. It is likely that this year's trio of Ipswich, Leicester (who might get a points deduction) and Southampton will have a tough fight.
Of those three, the Saints can be quite silky, as they showed in the first half hour at Newcastle. They might have the best chance of survival.
A surprise team? Possibly West Ham, despite that home defeat by Villa. The Hammers have made some big-market moves and might make the top six.