Although there are a vast number of considerations in handicapping the Kentucky Derby, one key element is determining which horses are the fastest. So let's take a look at the probable Derby competitors by their Beyer Speed Figures, and the figure patterns they exhibit coming into the race.
Beginning with the horses that have run quickest coming into the Derby, there are only four horses that have run a Beyer of 100 or higher, with those runners being Exaggerator, who ran a 103 Beyer in winning a sloppy Santa Anita Derby; likely Derby favorite Nyquist, who took the San Vicente with a 101 Beyer; Destin, who ran a 100 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby; and Danzing Candy, winner of the San Felipe with a 100 Beyer.
Exaggerator is the leader in terms of Beyers, but will he duplicate that figure? My guess is no. His preceding figures this year, a 98 in the seven-furlong San Vicente and a 96 in the 1-1/16-mile San Felipe, seem more representative of his ability on fast tracks. And the Churchill track is expected to be fast Saturday based on the long-term sunny forecast as of this writing Tuesday.
Still, this is not a fast Derby field. Beyers in the mid to upper 90s would still make him highly competitive.
Nyquist didn't run as quickly in winning the Florida Derby as he did in the San Vicente, running a 94, but pattern analysts should bear in mind that he also showed a drop off in figures prior to his victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year.
Before winning the Juvenile with an 89, he won the FrontRunner at Santa Anita with a 79 -- off from his prior 2-year-old figures in the 80s.
Destin shows a favorable pattern, running a 98 in the Sam. F. Davis and then surpassing that slightly with his 100 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby. He also comes into the race off eight weeks rest, seemingly lessening his chance of regression with plenty of recovery time.
What makes Destin a tricky read is that he has never run close to that fast outside of Tampa Bay Downs. It is difficult to determine whether he is getting better or simply loved the Tampa main track. Perhaps it was a combination of both.
Danzing Candy ran steadily improving figures over his first four races (72-89-92-100) before falling apart in the Santa Anita Derby - when he set a wicked pace over a sloppy track and faded to fourth, running an 83. Expect him to set a much more controlled pace and run better in the Derby, though a complete rebound to his top of 100 is probably wishful thinking.
As for horses outside the quartet with Beyers of 100 or more, those that fall behind them in terms of figures include Mor Spirt, with a 97 in the San Felipe and a 94 in the Santa Anita Derby; Creator with a 96 in rallying to win the Arkansas Derby; Mohaymen, with 95s in both the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth before his disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby when he ran an 80; Outwork, with a 98 for his runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby and a 93 in winning the Wood; and Suddenbreakingnews, who ran a 94 with a second in the Arkansas Derby and a 93 in winning the Southwest.
Of those, the pattern is least favorable for Mohaymen, though his Florida Derby loss did come over a wet track.
Barring dramatic speed-figure improvement, Gun Runner and Brody's Cause -- two major prep winners -- seem unlikely winners, with career-best Beyers of 91, respectively.