The Nationals made their move back to the top of the NL East in 2016, but how much of that will carry over into 2017, and how much can they count on Bryce Harper to bounce back from his tumble from greatness? One thing seems certain: Between the Mets' depth, the Marlins' mass acquisition of pitching help, and a Braves team looking to build on a strong stretch run, the division is about to get much tighter.
There are still a huge number of free agents available, but let's look at the NL East and where each team stands right now in its hunt for the 2017 postseason (teams are listed in the order they finished in the 2016 NL East standings).
2016: 95-67, +151 run differential, lost to Dodgers in NLDS
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 90-72
Key moves so far: Acquired OF Adam Eaton from White Sox for Ps Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning; acquired C Derek Norris; traded SS Danny Espinosa; lost P Mark Melancon, C Wilson Ramos as free agents.
Are the Nationals better than they were last year? There's reason to believe they'll at least be as good after the Eaton trade and with a full season from Trea Turner. Harper's decline was a bit staggering -- 87-point dip in batting average and OBP, 208 points in slugging -- and Baseball-Reference's metrics say he was worth eight fewer wins than in 2015. Even if 2015 proves to be peak Harper, he should be better than he was in 2016.
At the same time, there are reasons for concern. The starting pitching depth is thin, and Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross both landed on the DL in 2016. They're looking for a closer or bullpen depth if Blake Treinen or Shawn Kelley take over the ninth. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are aging former stars, as the Nationals had the worst first-base production in the majors, and Werth hit just .220/.312/.356 against righties. Then you have to account for some likely regression from Daniel Murphy and the loss of Ramos, who posted an .850 OPS in a huge year at the plate.